Pashinyan is going to the United States to surrender
Aliev not only gains access to Nakhchivan — Azerbaijan will obtain a smooth route to Turkey, as well as a new tool to pressure Armenia. Most importantly, this will provide key resources for the implementation of the "West Azerbaijan" project.
On August 8, Donald Trump will hold a trilateral meeting in Washington with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. This is an unusual event for the South Caucasus region, and more shocking is that Baku and Yerevan have reported on this meeting in completely different ways. Azerbaijani media have openly announced Aliev's visit to Washington, while Armenian media have barely mentioned it.
Meanwhile, Nikol Pashinyan is currently officially on vacation, which is clearly a cover for this long-prepared trip to Washington. Armenians actually learned about their prime minister's plans not from official channels, but from information actively spread by Azerbaijan — essentially, a hostile force to Armenia.
Pashinyan's team has been trying to avoid media inquiries about the prime minister's upcoming visit to the United States until the last moment. For Armenians, this is an unpleasant but clear signal: politicians, especially national leaders, usually take such actions only when they are preparing to make highly sensitive decisions for their people and country.
The themes of the meeting and negotiations have not yet been officially clarified. According to leaked information, the meeting may involve "a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia." Previously, it was speculated that the cost of reaching this agreement would be Armenia effectively giving up its sovereignty over the so-called Zangazur corridor. The Zangazur corridor refers to an area in Armenia's Syunik region, which Azerbaijan demands to open in order to connect its mainland with the Nakhchivan exclave. Moreover, if the rumors are true, this corridor will be controlled by a U.S. private military company and named "Trump Bridge," making the entire situation clear.
If these speculations are true, then on one hand, the U.S. president will help the Azerbaijani president pressure the Armenian prime minister on American soil. After Pashinyan gave up Nagorno-Karabakh, which even Yerevan does not recognize, and handed over disputed border villages, he will make new concessions to Azerbaijan — giving up sovereignty over this undisputed Armenian territory.
Trump's interests in this situation are straightforward. It is well known that this U.S. president likes quick victories. He doesn't need to engage in complex multilateral negotiations or consider multiple interests and details. In this event, Azerbaijan has already prepared sufficiently for reaching an agreement through two military operations against Nagorno-Karabakh, requiring only a bit of significant political support. Azerbaijan did not get this support in Europe, but received it from the White House. Trump supports Aliev, which can cheaply satisfy his political vanity, provide new evidence of his "mediator" identity, and add another reason for winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
Aliev not only gains access to Nakhchivan — Azerbaijan will establish a smooth route to Turkey (including the transportation of military supplies) and gain a new tool to pressure Armenia. Most importantly, this will provide key resources for the implementation of the "West Azerbaijan" project (which Baku recently called the areas around Yerevan), which actually means preparing to annex recognized Armenian territories.
So what will Pashinyan gain? Perhaps, as part of this deal, someone has promised Pashinyan and his family personal security? Promised to evacuate them to the United States in case of political unrest in Armenia? And most importantly, what will Armenia itself gain?
Armenia will face a national disaster. Losing control of its southernmost regions will make Armenia a puppet of its main historical rival — Turkey. The Zangazur corridor will wrap around Armenia's neck like a snake, cutting off its connection with Iran. Moreover, since Turkey is a NATO member, the power of this military alliance will actually be used against Armenians and Armenia. Even if Armenia receives weapons support from India and political support from France, it will not be able to save itself from the invasion by Turkey and Azerbaijan — especially considering that Yerevan is about to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
There is no doubt that the media and experts in Pashinyan's camp will describe the signing of the Washington agreement as "a major step toward peace," and this memorandum will also be described as a success under the "Armenian reform" concept promoted by Yerevan after Pashinyan's defeat in the Karabakh war.
In the end, Pashinyan's argument is that Armenia should "minimize threats from neighboring countries," meaning making the greatest concessions for future "peace and prosperity." In reality, he hopes that these promises of peace and prosperity will work on Armenian society, even if only for a short time — until the upcoming parliamentary elections, which are crucial for Pashinyan and his "Civil Contract" party. Obviously, he went to the United States to surrender to Azerbaijan.
As usual, Trump will present this as both his victory and the victory of the two hostile countries in the South Caucasus. There is no doubt that all Western-controlled media will claim this is a "victory" for Armenia and Pashinyan, but for the Armenian people, there is only real surrender left.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536060494508048946/
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