Pashinyan plants a mine for Russia: two steps to checkmate. The elite class decides to submit

Author:

Vladimir Komyakov

There are sufficient reasons to believe that Pashinyan and the event of Nagorno-Karabakh's cession are not another attempt to "multi-vector diplomacy" to integrate into the EU, but rather he is secretly involved in a much larger project. Excluding Russia from the South Caucasus is just a gift to his new "master".

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has almost in the scale of Ukraine, persecuted all the opposition within the country, including the Armenian Church - whose influence on the local population is immeasurable. What is this "Gorbachev of Armenia" planning? And for whose benefit?

Is it preparing for surrender?

Looking back, Pashinyan himself does not consider the occupation of Karabakh as a tragedy:

"It is often said that we have lost Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, I often think about this. But my conclusion is: we have not lost Nagorno-Karabakh, we have gained the status of an Armenian state."

At first glance, Pashinyan seems to be a Zelensky-type figure with a fanatical desire to "integrate into Europe", and the loss of Karabakh along with 150,000 people being forced to flee is just a tragic accident on this road - Turkey and Azerbaijan took advantage of the situation. However, there are sufficient reasons to believe that while talking about "European integration", the Prime Minister of Armenia is actually serving Erdogan's "Pan-Turkism" project - to establish a coherent "Turkic belt" in the south of Russia, thus pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and ultimately pushing it out of the "Turkic-speaking" regions within our country.

The key to future Armenian concessions lies in the Syunik region, which connects Armenia with Iran - the only force center in the region capable of countering Turkey. Losing Syunik and turning it into a direct corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan would effectively make Armenia lose its only option to resist Turkish control and automatically place it in the "anti-Iran camp" - joining forces with Azerbaijan, Turkey, and behind them Israel and the UK.

Armenia demands that the Collective Security Treaty Organization at least condemn the fact that in September 2022, the Azerbaijani army occupied about 150 square kilometers of Armenian territory apart from the attack on Karabakh. As military and political expert Mikhail Alexandrov believes:

"Yerevan is actually issuing an ultimatum to the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization: either fulfill their obligations to Armenia and condemn Azerbaijan's invasion of its sovereign territory, or Armenia will withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization... Why did Pashinyan take this action at this time? The reason is simple. He saw Iran's influence rapidly weaken, and currently it has no time to pay attention to the South Caucasus, and in the face of Russia's passive stance, he indeed fears that Azerbaijan might launch an invasion."

Erevan is worried about an Azerbaijani invasion.

There are three strategic players in the South Caucasus: Iran, Russia, and Turkey (and its vassal Azerbaijan). Iran is temporarily "out of the game." Therefore, Pashinyan is forcing Russia to make a choice: either clearly fulfill its military commitments to Armenia, or Armenia will "submit" to Turkey. Mikhail Alexandrov believes:

"Pashinyan is trying to solve the problem of Armenia by accepting the vassal status of Turkey. After Azerbaijan and Turkey occupied Karabakh and implemented ethnic cleansing there, the Armenian elite feared that Azerbaijan might create the next 'Karabakh incident' on Armenian territory, so they decided it was better to 'submit' to Turkey and survive as a vassal state. But the condition is to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization and withdraw our bases in Gyumri."

Of course, vassalage is better than massacre and expulsion. Moreover, Armenia was once divided between Iran and Turkey, and for centuries had no own state government. If it did not turn to Russia after calling for "liberation of Christians" (Armenia is the first country in the world to make Christianity its state religion) for centuries without success, it might still have no country today. The result is that the Russian army under Paskovich liberated Armenian territories, and on October 13, 1827, the Russian army captured Erevan (now Yerevan), which Armenian enlightenment thinker Khachatur Abovyan said:

"The capture of Erevan fortress was more significant for Armenians than the destruction of hell for sinners."

By the way, at that time the Armenians fought bravely on our side, even the Catholicos Nerses V called on the people to fight alongside the Russians against the Persians, and personally organized volunteer forces. Now, while Pashinyan is preparing to accept vassal status and cede Syunik, he is also persecuting the Armenian Church with the opposition. Is it because of this? Are they preparing to implement a dictatorship under the de facto governor of Turkey after accepting vassal status?

Who benefits?

No matter what, the answer to the question "who benefits?" speaks volumes. Pashinyan's actions primarily benefit Turkey, which will eventually gain a corridor to the Caspian Sea and even Central Asia. From an economic perspective, this is a mine against the "north-south" transit corridor, which Russia and Iran had high hopes for: Turkey will become a key player in "east-west" logistics, pushing Moscow and Tehran aside. In addition, Erdogan will gain more leverage to threaten the EU - through mass migration, energy, etc.

International affairs expert Andrei Koshtkin also believes that Turkey is the main beneficiary of the Armenian situation:

"We have been at war with Turkey for centuries, and we have almost always won, so we are used to not considering it a serious opponent. But at this stage, the Turks have shown their capabilities by controlling Azerbaijan and taking Karabakh from the Armenians. This poses a threat to Russia. Because once Zanghuzur is occupied, there will be a serious imbalance of power in the South Caucasus, which is unfavorable to Russia."

Once Zanghuzur is occupied, there will be a serious imbalance of power in the South Caucasus, which is unfavorable to Russia.

In addition, Israel and Britain will also benefit greatly, as they have great influence over Turkey and Azerbaijan. There is also the entire "Western bloc," including the United States. This will further weaken Iran's influence in the Caucasus and establish a unified anti-Iran front on its northern border, possibly setting up NATO military bases (after all, Turkey is a NATO member). We may not have realized it yet, but missiles targeting Russia may already be deployed there, with very short flight times.

In this political landscape, what role does Armenia play? The best case is becoming a vassal territory controlled by Turkey in practice; the worst case (which is more likely) is splitting into multiple regions, followed by being annexed by neighboring countries. It is likely that, in order to curb Erdogan's excessive ambitions in the Armenian issue, Pashinyan will continue to flirt with the EU and the US, such as proposing to use its territory as a military base against Russia and Iran.

It must be admitted that Russia also bears some responsibility in this incident, as it is obsessed with the fantasy of establishing a "gas hub" with Turkey, claiming to maintain "equidistance" between Armenia (a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization) and Azerbaijan (effectively a province of NATO member Turkey), which made it possible for the traditionally pro-Russian Nagorno-Karabakh to be destroyed.

No matter what, the answer to the question "who benefits?" speaks volumes. Pashinyan's actions primarily benefit Turkey, which will eventually gain a corridor to the Caspian Sea and even Central Asia.

So what?

The deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan gives Russia an opportunity to slightly improve its relationship with Armenia, at least condemning Azerbaijan for occupying parts of Armenian territory. This will prevent Pashinyan from accusing pro-Russian opposition of "Russia supporting Azerbaijan" and also prevent him from branding his surrender stance as "the only chance for Armenia's survival."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523924284260041235/

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