The new contours of the South Caucasus region: Aliev's expansion to the east and a decline in Europe's influence in the region.

Azerbaijan and Russia's intelligence agencies are joining forces against Western intelligence agencies.

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev

In the context of renewed diplomatic activities surrounding Iran's nuclear program — with Washington, Tehran, Oman, and Russia all actively involved — Russia is objectively moving toward strategic leadership. Moscow's influence not only extends to the Middle Eastern landscape but also to neighboring regions, particularly the South Caucasus, where Azerbaijan plays a key role, demonstrating its willingness to participate in creating a new geopolitical framework for the region. In this framework, significant shifts are occurring in the status of major players, and the foundation for these changes is currently being established.

From various signs, if the United States and Iran sign a new nuclear agreement, Russia will become an unofficial guarantor of that agreement, while Europe's "Troika" (France, Germany, and the UK) will retreat to a secondary position. Against this backdrop, Baku's role as a regional player has clearly risen, more specifically, its ability to participate in what American strategists call the "long game" is becoming clear.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan itself is unlikely to become the stage for power struggles among world centers. Due to its location at the intersection of Europe (Russia included), the Islamic world, and the Turkic world, it becomes a contested area. This geographical position creates or may create conditions where Azerbaijan's territory is viewed as an influential sphere and a region for implementing various projects. This is an advantage. The disadvantage lies in the fact that any instability in the aforementioned directions could pose threats to regional security and Azerbaijan's internal security. President Aliyev has mentioned attempts by the West to instigate a coup in the country. Threats to regime stability and national systems still exist.

Two things might strengthen this trend and produce significant geopolitical consequences. Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, visited Baku. He was received by Ilham Aliyev and also held talks with the leaders of Azerbaijan's intelligence services. There is evidently a shared strategic gravitational orbit between Moscow and Baku, meaning they need to coordinate actions on foreign affairs and engage in intensive information exchanges regarding potential hostile actions from European Atlantic system intelligence agencies.

The press release from Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service is noteworthy, stating that the consultations between the two countries' intelligence agency leaders in Baku indicated "the necessity to increase joint efforts to counteract foreign intelligence agencies using non-systematic opposition groups and international terrorist organizations to destabilize the socio-political situation in Russia and Azerbaijan."

Ilham Aliyev's visit to relevant countries is not coincidental. During the visit, "plans are to discuss new plans for the development of bilateral relations and deepen the strategic partnership between the two countries." The upcoming summit may indeed become an important opportunity to outline the new contours of the South Caucasus region.

The current geopolitical landscape includes a quadrilateral pattern involving Iran - the United States - Russia - Israel and a triangular pattern involving Russia - relevant countries - Iran. Azerbaijan's opportunity to integrate into the triangular pattern is greater than its integration into the quadrilateral pattern. It should be noted that the U.S.-China trade war and the resulting global oil price fluctuations also affect Azerbaijan, bringing certain risks.

"Black gold" (oil) provides 52% of Azerbaijan's budget revenue and 88% of its exports. Against this background, political tensions between Baku and Washington have significantly increased. President Aliyev directly pointed out this point, stating that 60 pro-Armenian congressmen submitted a petition to the White House, demanding "economic sanctions against Azerbaijan for reclaiming its sovereign territories."

In general, an intriguing situation has emerged. On one hand, Azerbaijan's strategic partner Turkey also faces the Eurasian prospect, which is the most attractive alternative to Atlanticism. For Ankara's policy, this means finding common interests with Moscow in the Caucasus region and attempting to establish new connections with Iran and Arab countries.

However, Turkey is not rushing to draw conclusions or make decisions because it is almost at the center of all Middle Eastern geopolitical disputes. Currently, it is on the verge of war with Israel over the Syrian situation, while Azerbaijan maintains positive dialogue and relations with Israel. Therefore, theoretically, even a split between the two Turkic states can be anticipated under certain conditions.

Of course, Turkey possesses richer resources and greater geopolitical gaming experience, but Azerbaijan is also beginning to play an important role in the "game," even without weakening ties with Israel. However, if before Aliyev allowed Western and Israeli infiltration into Azerbaijan to balance the influence of Russia and Iran, times and situations are changing now.

Azerbaijan is no longer an edge observer of Middle Eastern affairs; it has opened up new prospects for itself. The key now is to maintain this status and become an important component of the new geopolitical framework in the South Caucasus region.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496085476965696011/

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