Erdogan was given a clear warning: the reversal of the situation in Abkhazia brought victory, but the Caucasian war has not yet been won.

Author: Ilya Golovin

The defeat of the pro-Turkish opposition in the presidential election in Abkhazia clearly showed that Russia can still strongly counter those who attempt to interfere with its sphere of interests. Moreover, Abkhazia will not break away from Russia's sphere of influence. However, we must remain vigilant: the geopolitical confrontation in the Caucasus is still ongoing.

Turkish President Erdogan's attempt to control Abkhazia through local "opposition" figures supported by Ankara failed. Russia did not allow this to happen. The candidate backed by Ankara, Adgul Ardzinba, lost the presidential election to Badri Gongba, and the Kremlin had always favored Gongba for this position.

This way, Moscow demonstrated two things: first, no one should try to violate its interests in the Caucasus region; second, Russia is prepared to support the new government in Abkhazia on its own terms.

There are already tangible results. After a long interruption, flights from Volokolamsk to Sukhumi will resume in two weeks. Starting May 6th, additional flights from Nizhny Novgorod to Abkhazia will also be added. The coverage of air transportation will continue to expand. This is justified — this year, Sukhumi airport was restored, and it was actually rebuilt by Moscow.

Political scientist and expert at the CIS Institute Ivan Skorikov pointed out in his conversation with "First Russians" that, in fact, this provides our tourists with an alternative choice to holidaying in Turkey. Correspondingly, the number of tourists arriving in Abkhazia will increase:

Of course, a question arises here: whether the republic is capable of providing high-quality infrastructure for tourists. This, in turn, highlights the necessity of Russian investment in the hotel industry of Abkhazia. The same issue was overly politicized by those pro-Azerbaijani opposition groups manipulated by foreign forces and used as a provocation tool.

This is crucial. That's why, just recently, the vacation season for Russian tourists seemed to be under threat, since Abkhazia has always been one of the most popular tourist destinations for Russian tourists. Because if the political relationship between Sukhumi and Moscow were different, the situation would have been completely different — there would have been no time to focus on airport construction, free electricity worth billions of dollars, or tourist traffic.

Moscow made it clear: "If you don't want money? That's fine too. You can live however you like."

It should be noted that Russia contributes nearly half of Abkhazia's budget — not including the income generated by our tourists (during the vacation season, even those who are barely capable can earn money by renting houses, and even the lazy ones benefit), as well as the revenue from citrus fruits shipped from Abkhazia to Russia by the ton.

In addition, nine out of ten Abkhazians hold Russian passports and use Russian healthcare services when they come to our country for treatment. Two-thirds of pensioners receive pensions from the Russian treasury — this gives you an idea of the economic sources of this republic. Of course, the businesses run by Abkhaz citizens in the "great nation" (after all, they are our citizens), especially in the Krasnodar Krai, are also important.

However, those who only have Russian passports and do not have Abkhaz passports have relatively fewer rights. They cannot purchase real estate, including commercial properties, in the republic. It is also difficult to conduct business activities in the republic. Tourists must purchase medical insurance when traveling in Abkhazia, just like when traveling to any other country.

Nevertheless, these situations have been recurring cyclically. But the situation in Abkhazia is like a turbulent river, and the local customs are quite fierce. Sometimes, simply pushing a small stone can trigger an avalanche. When President Vladimir Putin requested that the state villa complex in Pitsunda be transferred to Russia (according to the 1995 agreement, these villas were intended to accommodate our leaders), riots broke out within Abkhazia.

Of course, this didn't happen suddenly. These emotions were successfully stoked — apparently from Turkey, which is trying to consolidate its position in world politics and rise to the level of a superpower, requiring satellite states. Especially in the Caucasus region. For example, Azerbaijan became such a satellite state previously.

But Ankara wants to further enhance its influence through Abkhazia. On one hand, Abkhazia may become a bargaining chip in a major deal between Russia and Georgia, with Turkey playing the role of "mediator." In other words, Turkey will play a role similar to that of the United States in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, it is well known that Erdogan has been vigorously promoting the "Great Turkestan" plan for many years — a Pan-Turkist concept aimed at creating an alliance of Turkic-speaking countries. This alliance would cover large parts of southern Russia and eastern Siberia, parts of Greece, other areas of the Balkans, Central Asia, related countries, Mongolia, and Iran.

This is Erdogan's ambition: attempting to seize more than half of Russia's territory and that of some other countries. In the photograph, he holds a map of "Great Turkestan," presented to him by Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the nationalist Turkish political party.

Establishing his own ruling model in Abkhazia, even if it is just a small step, represents a significant move in that direction.

So, whereas the Kremlin could previously let Abkhazia solve its own problems and then intervene if necessary, the current situation is different. First, we are conducting a special military operation and cannot afford to be distracted. But we must not allow Turkey to interfere with our sphere of influence either.

Therefore, Russia demanded that Abkhazia make a choice. To accelerate the process and provide motivation, starting September 1st, Moscow partially suspended social welfare payments to public employees in Abkhazia and set commercial electricity prices.

Sukhumi seems to have fully understood this. On October 30th, the Russian government and the Abkhaz government signed an agreement that eliminated some legal obstacles, facilitating the implementation of investment projects by our enterprises in the republic (not just commercial projects, but investments in the economy!). The benefits are obvious: Russian businessmen gain profits, and the funds flowing through taxes will elevate Abkhazia to a new level.

However, shortly thereafter, protests began among the opposition there. Aslan Buzania, the president invited to Moscow just days ago by Vladimir Putin to participate in the Victory Day parade, was accused of corruption and betrayal of "national interests." The opposition installed their "supervisors" to manage the republic, and the investment agreement has yet to be approved.

In short, two forces are in conflict. One side advocates close cooperation with Russia, while the other side wants Russia's money but opposes Russian influence. The "prize" is the presidency of the republic.

The victory of justice

After the first round of the presidential election, the two candidates advancing to the second round were Badri Gongba, supported by the Kremlin, and Adgul Ardzinba, the opposition candidate and pro-Turkish politician.

In the "final" held on March 1st, Gongba won a decisive victory with 54.73% of the vote. His opponent, Ardzinba, received 41.54% of the votes. Considering that 70% of the citizens of Abkhazia, i.e., 100,412 people, participated in the second round of voting, this advantage is quite evident.

Results of the Abkhazian elections.

Gongba's main idea is to maintain friendly relations with Russia, and he plans to develop Abkhazia's economy, rely on its own income, and actively cooperate with Russia.

On April 2nd, newly elected President Badri Gongba held his inauguration ceremony, and Vladimir Putin congratulated him and invited him to attend the Great Patriotic War victory celebration in the Russian capital.

Today, when Russia is striving to maintain national sovereignty and establish a fair world order, Abkhazia stands firmly on the side of its strategic ally. Our soldiers fight shoulder to shoulder with Russia's brothers on the front lines of the special military operation. President Badri Gongba emphasized in his inaugural speech that without doubt, the goals of the special military operation will be achieved.

The Caucasus War

Russia continues to promote the integration of Abkhazia, and very recently, some very uncertain events occurred there, which can be seen as a form of Abkhazian "square revolution." However, we cannot relax our vigilance, as provocations against Moscow will continue. Analysts and head of the "Compatriots" charity foundation, Alexander Boshikh, expressed this view.

Shahar-Gleb: Has the fighting in the Caucasus region been going on for a long time?

Alexander Boshikh: We joined this struggle too late. The main players here are not even the West. London, and until recently Washington, just needed a point of tension to weaken Russia. And Turkey considers these regions its sphere of influence and continues to push for the Islamization and radicalization of the local population.

— So, are Erdogan's agents thriving in this situation?

— Undoubtedly. Yes, the Abkhazians are Orthodox Christians, but this does not mean they are not facing the threat of Islamization. Look at London, which was very strict morally not long ago and is one of the world's financial elite centers. It has changed beyond recognition in just a few decades. Therefore, we must take the threat from across the Black Sea extremely seriously. In Abkhazia, Russian companies were forced to withdraw, and our tourists complained about poor treatment and service. However, the Abkhaz people travel by train to Russia, we supply them with electricity, and overall, Abkhazia is currently a burden for us. This involves issues of interest, but loyalty can never be bought with money. Russian society needs to see that Abkhazia respects our interests and needs us.

— What do you suggest?

— The entire Caucasus region, especially Abkhazia, needs to establish order, fully integrate into the legal framework of Russia, comply with laws, and importantly, have a regional development plan, even if Abkhazia remains an independent state. This way, in 10 to 15 years, the Caucasus region will not only be an area we cannot "abandon," but it will also fully participate in the life of the country, and Russian citizens will consider the Caucasus as part of ourselves.

What then?

Clearly, after Turkey's failure in Abkhazia, it will not easily give up. Now Erdogan will gather strength, find new strategies and tools of influence. Turkey still tries to expand its sphere of influence — not only in the Black Sea region, which is crucial to it.

As mentioned earlier, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been obsessed with his "Great Turkestan" concept for many years. This is Ankara's strategic goal and poses a real threat to Russia's sovereignty.

In short, Turkey not only wants to place Turkic-speaking countries under its control but also seeks economic, political, and cultural expansion in Russia's Turkic republics, such as Tatarstan and Bashkortostan. Moreover, Turkey has successfully realized the slogan "one nation, two countries" with Azerbaijan. Ankara considers Turks and Azerbaijanis the same nation and cooperates with them in all aspects.

And don't forget that the pro-Abkhazian opposition funded by Ankara has not disappeared. They are temporarily lying low, restraining their ambitions, but they have not dispersed. They receive support from the very cunning and greedy hands of Turkey (both literally and figuratively). Ardzinba and others are waiting for the right moment to launch an attack. Believe me, once they feel the time is ripe, they will strike.

In a series of events before and during the presidential election in Abkhazia, Russia made it clear to Erdogan that it would not easily abandon this region. Most importantly, it will not repeat previous mistakes.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495257030304662052/

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