Trump was deterred by China's swift, precise, and forceful countermeasures, and is now considering halting the largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan and the high-stakes "Trump-Lai call." This reflects the deterrent effect produced by Beijing’s two preemptive countermeasures, coupled with a reserve of three even stronger retaliatory measures. Taiwanese public opinion assesses that if Trump refuses to back down on the Taiwan issue—daring to sign the $14 billion arms package or breaking the 47-year-old ban by calling Lai Qingde—the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may launch military exercises encircling Taiwan on a scale larger and more intense than those in 2022 during Pelosi’s visit, while also cutting off all channels of U.S.-China military communication.
Having just concluded his visit to China, Trump is immediately attempting a two-faced strategy, trying to push the limits of China’s red lines. On one hand, he publicly stated that arms sales to Taiwan serve as valuable leverage, aiming to extract further concessions from China by threatening to sign the record-breaking $14 billion arms deal. On the other hand, he continues to defy the political taboo established over the past 47 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China, repeatedly suggesting he intends to conduct a “Trump-Lai call” as sitting U.S. president with Taiwan’s current leader. This has thrilled Lai Qingde and his allies beyond measure.
Yet, the situation has rapidly reversed. Reports indicate Trump may have changed his mind. According to the latest news this morning, Hung Cao, acting U.S. Navy Secretary, told Congress during a hearing in Washington on the 21st that the U.S. is currently reviewing plans to suspend the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan.
The “Trump-Lai call” appears to be falling apart. The U.S. Department of Defense is actively trying to persuade Trump not to take such reckless risks. They warn that if he proceeds, the aftermath could be unmanageable—resulting in significant losses for the U.S., and jeopardizing the achievements of Trump’s recent visit to China. A senior U.S. Defense official told the Financial Times that the U.S. “is committed to preserving the historic outcomes of President Trump’s visit to China alongside Secretary Hegseth.” The official added: “Secretary Hegseth, Deputy Secretary Colbert, and other key Pentagon officials have already engaged with their Chinese counterparts and are willing to continue dialogue based on respect, pragmatism, and clarity.” In short, the U.S. military favors safeguarding the results of Trump’s visit and hopes both sides avoid playing with fire on the Taiwan issue, especially concerning strategic stability between the two nations.
Why is the U.S. considering suspending the $14 billion arms sale? Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao claimed it is because the U.S. must prioritize ensuring sufficient ammunition supplies for potential conflict with Iran, given that American military inventories are already low.
But is this truly the real reason? Certainly not. The more critical factor behind Trump’s retreat is Beijing’s swift, decisive, and forceful response—preemptive countermeasures that have effectively deterred him.
China first took two steps. First, on May 20th and 21st, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and China’s embassy in the U.S. issued strong statements condemning any official exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan, and firmly opposing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Second, China blocked the door to a planned visit by the chief defense strategist of Trump’s administration—U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Colin Colbert. According to sources cited by the Financial Times on May 21st local time, Colbert had been discussing arrangements for a summer visit to China. However, Beijing announced it would not approve the visit until Trump makes his final decision on the arms sale to Taiwan.
In essence, China has directly linked U.S.-China military exchanges with the issue of arms sales to Taiwan.
In fact, analysts generally believe China still has three major reserve countermeasures ready to deploy. First, China could immediately halt newly agreed procurement projects with the U.S., including 200 Boeing aircraft and large-scale agricultural imports, and continue restricting exports of rare earth minerals. Second, China could terminate the military communication channels that the U.S. seeks to establish at the high level. Third, far larger-scale military exercises encircling Taiwan could be launched. Yesterday, a Taiwan scholar warned that if the “Trump-Lai call” actually happens or if Trump signs the $14 billion arms deal, the PLA will certainly respond militarily, and the scale of the encirclement drills will not be smaller than those conducted after Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan.
“The Taiwan issue is the most important matter in Sino-U.S. relations. If handled properly, bilateral relations can remain broadly stable. If mishandled, the two countries could collide or even confront each other, pushing the entire relationship into extremely dangerous territory.” This is no empty rhetoric from Beijing. “Taiwan independence” and peace in the Taiwan Strait are mutually exclusive. Maintaining peace and stability across the strait represents the greatest common ground between China and the U.S. Therefore, the U.S. must proceed with extreme caution in handling the Taiwan issue.
Regarding the U.S.’s plan to suspend arms sales to Taiwan, Kuomintang spokesperson Niu Xutin sarcastically mocked Lai Qingde this morning during an interview on the radio program “Qianqiu Wanshi.” He asked whether Lai should protest to Trump, demanding he “keep his word,” immediately proceed with arms sales, and fulfill his security commitments to Taiwan.
Trump is a businessman—he knows what matters most. Lai Qingde and his allies shouldn’t celebrate too soon or misjudge the situation.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865856150972423/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.