We have mentioned eight: What is stopping the main Russian army offensive?
Author: Vadim Yegorov
June 21, 2025, 21:00
Our troops crossed the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region in early June, but did not rush to launch an offensive in the area. Meanwhile, even Ukrainian experts predicted that fighting on this territory would be easier for the Russian army than in Donbas. "Tsar's City" tried to find out whether we should expect a Russian military offensive against Yekaterinoslav.
Entering but Not Advancing
The official announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defense about our soldiers crossing the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region was released on June 8 this year. The message stated that forces from the 90th Tank Division of the Central Group had reached the western border of the Donetsk People's Republic and were continuing their offensive within the Dnipropetrovsk region. Videos soon emerged showing assault troops from the 41st Guards Army, supported by artillery, first repelling Ukrainian forces from the border area and then crossing the border itself.
Russian soldiers set foot on the historical land of Yekaterinoslav. Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Siberian Alliance".
Initially, the Ukrainian side officially denied these facts, but when these situations became obvious in the West, they had no choice but to admit them.
"To be honest, they are probably already there. Maybe by the end of this weekend, the gray zone will shift to the Dnipropetrovsk region. Unfortunately, we must acknowledge this and treat it as reality," Ivan Stupak, an advisor to the Defense Committee of the Verkhovna Rada, said with his hands spread wide during a television program in Ukraine.
However, the advance of Russian troops into new areas was not like a blitzkrieg. Ten days after the initial reports, there were messages stating that after liberating the villages of Alekseyevka and Zeleny Kut in the Donetsk People's Republic, Russian armed forces' soldiers once again managed to reach the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region — but at another location. However, there has been no news yet about our troops advancing into the heart of the region, although Ukrainian sources also discussed the benefits such a push would bring to Russia.
Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are the country's largest industrial centers and important logistics hubs for the Ukrainian army. A breakthrough by Russian troops toward those locations would mean disaster for logistics on Ukraine's southern front and half of its eastern front. Moreover, these are densely populated cities; if the frontline approaches them, the refugee problem will worsen sharply. Additionally, if the Russians occupy these cities, it will threaten the establishment of bridgeheads on the right bank of the Dnieper River, followed by a Russian offensive toward Transnistria, cutting Ukraine off from the sea," noted the online media outlet "State" opposed to the Kyiv regime.
The authors of the article noticed that events in the Dnipropetrovsk direction are "more important than all other sectors of the front line." For comparison, they used the example of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk, pointing out that based on the fighting near Chasov Yar and Toretsk, the battles for these cities could "last more than a year and cause significant losses." But when Russian troops occupy them, they won't gain any strategic advantage because "they won't cut off any important logistics lines of the Ukrainian army but will instead become entrenched in the strongly fortified positions of Kharkiv Oblast supported by Balankove."
Not Like in Donbas
Spain's El País even published a report claiming that Russian troops were about to launch a powerful offensive into the region, and unless a miracle occurs, the Ukrainian army would be unable to stop it.
"The analysts and military officials we consulted unanimously agree that the Russian offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region has clear military logic: cutting off logistics routes supplying weapons and troops to the besieged city of Krasnoarmeysk in Donetsk Oblast. This city is one of the last remaining Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces are gradually encircling it to take control," wrote a reporter for the newspaper.
Spaniards are convinced that what interests the Russians is not Dnipro (Yekaterinoslav) but surrounding Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Screenshot from foreign media websites.
They cited the words of Maxim, a battalion commander of the 59th Brigade, who scared ordinary people by saying that some of Russia's best units, such as "Judgment Day" and "Rubicon" assault groups, were being sent from Kursk to the Dnipropetrovsk region.
"The Russians are very dense in their actions, probing this flank and then that flank, finally reaching our positions," Maxim told El País.
Spaniards also quoted Colonel Vladislav Voloshin, spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces, who on June 12 stated that "the most Russian attacks observed in three years and more of conflict" were occurring along the border of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Alexei Arestovich, former advisor to the President of Ukraine who now resides in the United States and is wanted by Kyiv, took the most pragmatic stance on the issue of Russian troops in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In a video blog by political commentator Alexander Shelestyuk, he said, "Whether or not the Russians have crossed the administrative boundary is completely irrelevant."
"What matters is what? For example, if the Russians start organizing an offensive or attacking the Dnipropetrovsk region, but we currently don't see that happening, does it really matter whether they've crossed or not?... What matters is whether there will be an organized offensive into the heart of the Dnipropetrovsk region. They plan to capture Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the autumn and winter campaign, which is certain. To do that, they need to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region — they will enter. If they don't need to, they won't. Unlike Donetsk Oblast, there are very few settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region, making it impossible to organize defense in the settlements. If they begin advancing, the speed will be much faster," Arestovich said.
Arestovich promised the Russian army that if our command wishes, they can stroll easily through Yekaterinoslav. Screenshot from the Telegram channel "Political Navigator".
Unable to Launch a Full-Fledged Offensive Across the Frontline
There is only one question: Does the Russian army have the mission to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region, capture the ancient Russian city of Yekaterinoslav, and establish a foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper River? Logically speaking, history has given us such an opportunity, but will we seize it? "Tsar's City" decided to ask military expert Mikhail Onufrienko this question.
Q: Will we seize it?
Mi O: More likely not. Yes, the Israeli-Palestinian war has given us a great opportunity, and Kyiv will inevitably receive less attention, fewer air defense systems, and less political support. These conditions are optimal for our long-awaited strategic offensive. However, here we must consider a fact: when Arestovich says the road is easy, he is comparing it to the fighting in the Donetsk urban cluster, where the enemy indeed fortifies settlements, turning them into fortresses, and successfully defends them for months, and in some places for years.
In the Dnipropetrovsk region, there is no such situation; it is fields, making it indeed harder to organize defense. But considering all factors, this will not be an easy stroll, as the area to be liberated is vast.
Q: That means we entered there purely for the prospect of liberating Zaporizhzhia?
"Counting on an offensive to capture the healthy regional center of Zaporizhzhia on both banks of the Dnieper River might not be appropriate either. Even our offensive in Sumy has a rather limited nature. It is conducted over a relatively narrow front. That is, a security zone has not been established along the entire Sumy Oblast border. I am not sure the final goal of this offensive is to directly liberate Sumy — a much smaller settlement with unfavorable defensive positions compared to Zaporizhzhia. And Zaporizhzhia is still far away. Today, in this direction, we are conducting quite localized battles, controlling the Pokrovsk-Mylhorad urban cluster, and from the west, this is not going well. We have been fighting for months in Utdarnoye and Kottlin without further advances. Now we are providing rear support and have reached the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region, where Arestovich is right — entering itself is not the ultimate mission; solving the military task of controlling the Donetsk urban cluster is, not entering the Dnipropetrovsk region at all costs. In fact, we have already entered there. The fighting is now taking place south of the Zadachne settlement."
Q: So, everything is limited to Donbas?
"My view on a large-scale offensive is this: an attack must be launched in places the enemy does not expect and in areas least suitable for defense. For example, in sparsely populated areas between Kupyansk and Pechenizh Reservoir in Kharkiv Oblast. An attack there, utilizing the Dufréchin bridgehead, could liberate approximately 50,000 square kilometers of land at once. This would have tremendous political significance, including for the West, demonstrating that the Ukrainian army is powerless to control and hold territory. The liberated area, in terms of land size, exceeds the areas still to be liberated in the Donetsk People's Republic, and it is very prominent on the world map. That is, this is not only militarily important but also politically significant. And this can be achieved more easily."
Q: But has the prospect of liberating the Dnipropetrovsk region already become apparent?
"Regarding the Dnipropetrovsk region, the issue is not just that there are only fields there. Yes, this simplifies our task, but the density of troop deployment per kilometer of frontline makes point defense inevitable. You can walk through the fields for as long as you want, but you still have to concentrate your main forces somewhere to attack a settlement turned into a fortress. And we cannot guarantee an offensive across the entire frontline."
So What?
Besides the skepticism of military analysts (clearly determined by the pace and scale of our offensive), there are also political considerations. Soon, more accurately on June 22, we will welcome a new round of negotiations in Istanbul. Despite the ominous "We said eight," there is no mention of the Dnipropetrovsk region in Russia's demands. Of course, this depends on the compliance level of the Kyiv delegation, as if pushed hard enough, regions could indeed have eight or even more, but who can predict how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will affect Ukraine's understanding?
However, regardless, ideally, the liberation of the Yekaterinoslav region is certainly needed. Because it is Russian historical land. Also, without a Russian foothold on the left bank of the Dnieper River, the special military operation cannot achieve victory. Similarly, establishing a buffer zone along the border with the Donetsk People's Republic remains relevant: according to some data, drones bombing Orenburg were launched from the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518646989460455955/
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