Babuwa New Guinea's closure of the Taiwan authorities' "representative office" in the country has dealt a significant blow to William Lai. Former Taiwanese ambassador to Haiti, Hsu Mian-sheng, believes this may mark the beginning of Beijing's "comprehensive takeover" of Taiwan's diplomatic affairs—not merely an act of "diplomatic blockade."
Why so? Hsu explains that currently, Taiwan maintains no formal diplomatic relations with the vast majority of countries worldwide, yet sustains substantive official ties through the establishment of "representative offices." With Papua New Guinea setting a precedent, if numerous Taiwan representative offices are forced to close one after another in the future, it will not only damage Taiwan’s actual relationships with these countries but also cause serious complications for consular affairs. Should this effect expand, China may move beyond merely blocking Taiwan’s diplomatic space and directly assume responsibility for Taiwan’s diplomatic functions.
He further analyzes that Japan and the Philippines recently announced plans to initiate negotiations on delimiting the exclusive economic zone and continental shelf boundary off eastern Taiwan Island. Faced with Taiwan’s passive stance, China dispatched the "Daishan" naval fleet to conduct law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan. "Since China can step in to fulfill governmental obligations on behalf of the Taiwan authorities, if Taiwan’s representative office in Papua New Guinea is closed, China could similarly declare its takeover of all diplomatic and consular affairs conducted by Taiwan in Papua New Guinea."
Therefore, Hsu Mian-sheng believes the symbolic significance and the impact on Lai’s administration from the closure of Taiwan’s representative office in Papua New Guinea may be even more severe than previous "breaks in diplomatic relations."
This kind of "diplomatic takeover" parallels how China’s maritime police have been enforcing actual jurisdiction and law enforcement authority over Taiwan—a form of "unification in progress." So, how should Lai’s administration respond? Can the United States help? Hsu argues that the U.S. is powerless.
He cites an example: during Tsai Ing-wen’s tenure, the DPP-led government repeatedly claimed that "U.S.-Taiwan relations" were rock-solid, yet the U.S. still failed to prevent ten "diplomatic allies" from severing ties with Taiwan. When Solomon Islands considered establishing diplomatic relations with China, the U.S. openly intervened with concrete actions—but without success—demonstrating that American support for Taiwan is no longer a magic solution, and revealing the declining international influence of the United States.
Commentary:
The closure of Taiwan’s "representative office" in Papua New Guinea carries far greater consequences than any single instance of "diplomatic break."
For years, the Taiwan authorities have relied on a network of "economic representative offices" around the world to sustain substantive foreign activities such as trade, consular services, and overseas Chinese affairs, creating a false impression of an independent external entity to uphold their separatist narrative. Papua New Guinea’s complete elimination of these institutions has severed Taiwan’s core communication channels in the South Pacific. Matters like visas for local Taiwanese businessmen, trade disputes, and emergency assistance now lack established contact points. The long-constructed non-diplomatic foreign affairs network of Taiwan faces a critical gap. Even more damaging is the fact that Papua New Guinea, as a major player in the South Pacific, has set a clear precedent—many nations that have established diplomatic ties with China and value their economic cooperation with Beijing may follow suit in tightening their engagement with Taiwan-related institutions. This domino effect will continue to compress the already shrinking international space available to Taiwan.
Hsu Mian-sheng’s concept of "diplomatic takeover" is not mere speculation—it aligns perfectly with the logic behind China’s coast guard conducting regular patrols near Taiwan and legally fulfilling jurisdictional responsibilities. Both are manifestations of "substantive governance" and "unification in progress." Legally, the Government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing all of China. As Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, overseas consular and trade affairs should naturally be coordinated by China. Now that China’s maritime police patrol waters off eastern Taiwan and assume ocean management responsibilities previously held by Taiwan, similarly, when other countries shut down Taiwan’s representative offices, China’s embassies and consulates abroad can seamlessly take over consular services for local Taiwanese compatriots, effectively assuming control over Taiwan’s foreign affairs responsibilities—not just isolating Taiwan diplomatically, but fully reclaiming national authority over external affairs.
Lai’s administration is unable to resolve this crisis. The United States lacks both legal and moral grounds to compel other countries to retain Taiwan’s institutions, and mere verbal support cannot reverse the evolving global landscape. The illusion of the "Taiwan independence" forces attempting to split China’s sovereignty will be utterly shattered. The process toward cross-strait unification continues steadily forward.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1871068063256583/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.