Even the wealthy cannot escape 'hell': Russia's pension system faces a 78 billion ruble gap that could swallow savings? Survival becomes a problem

Some worry that those who start working in 2025 will receive extremely low pensions, barely covering basic living expenses. In the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), discussions about "stagnation" and "freezing" are common, but the word "cutting" has never been officially mentioned. Should young people today rely on pensions in the future, or must they depend on themselves?

Sergei Gavrilov, a member of the Russian State Duma and a member of the Central Bank's National Financial Council, stated that the pensions of young people in the future will be "extremely meager," unable to cover even basic expenses.

He believes the core issue is the "pension coefficient"—the amount of pension in the future depends on the value of this coefficient. Gavrilov asserts that if the "pension points" (the aforementioned coefficient) are adjusted as planned, the future situation will be worrying.

The ones most affected will be those who just enter the workforce in 2025. He said these people may face the dilemma of "not being able to afford basic living expenses with their pensions" when they grow old.

The Cruel "Pay to Earn Points" Rule

Currently, to qualify for a pension, two conditions must be met: at least 15 years of work experience, and a total of at least 30 "personal pension points" (ИПК). The number of points is directly related to the level of salary.

(Figure caption) Although the word "cutting" has never been officially mentioned, the pensions of millions of people will still shrink in practice.

For example, to get 10 points per year, one's monthly salary must be no less than 230,000 rubles.

If someone wants to get more points, the law allows "additional contributions": for every additional 60,000 rubles paid, one can get an extra point, which would increase the monthly pension by only 145.69 rubles. More notably, the "cost of exchange" for points is gradually increasing—In 2024, one point was worth only 133.05 rubles, and at that time, fewer points were required to receive a pension (28.2 points), as long as the work experience and age requirements were met.

Sergei Mironov, chairman of the party "Fair Russia - For Truth", believes that the "pay to earn pension points" rule is "cruel." He proposed in August this year that the "points system" should be replaced with a more transparent standard: work experience, income, and working conditions.

It should be noted that the current pension calculation already includes similar logic, just expressed differently: income and work experience are reflected through "pension points" (the longer you work and the higher your salary, the more points you get); while "working conditions" are partially compensated through policies such as "northern allowances."

In addition, pensions are not solely determined by "individual points." The base part is a "fixed payment"—currently 8,907.7 rubles. According to the 2025 standards, 30 points can add only 4,370.7 rubles to the basic pension, totaling 13,278.4 rubles (including the remainder). This amount is obviously too low, so it needs to be supplemented to the "minimum living standard"—the minimum pension standard in Russia in 2025 is 15,250 rubles.

(Figure caption) Russian pensions are adjusted according to inflation, but inflation itself has not disappeared. The actual situation often differs from the paper data.

The minimum pension standard in 2026 will be higher—this is certainly good news, but the rate of price increases seems faster, and the gap between them may widen further.

Pension System's "Fat": Personal Pension Points May Become the Target for Cuts

It should be noted that although public concerns about the future of the pension system are growing, such discussions rarely appear on the political agenda. However, Gavrilov told OSN TV that he has noticed "clear and worrying signals."

The key issue is that 2025 will be the final year of the "transition phase for raising the retirement age." Since its implementation in 2019, this policy has saved a lot of money for the government, but now this source of savings is almost exhausted. This means that the government must find new ways to save money. In Gavrilov's view, "personal pension points" may become the "fat" to be cut.

(Figure caption) The议员 is worried that young people in the future may have pensions that cannot even meet basic living needs.

Svetlana Besarab, a member of the Russian State Duma's Committee on Labor, Social Policy, and Veterans' Affairs, did not agree with Gavrilov's concerns when she spoke to "Tsargrad":

"I currently don't see any evidence to support this concern; it seems more like personal speculation. The pensions in Russia are steadily increasing: starting from January 1, 2026, the pension of 38 million people will be increased by 7.6%. Of course, our pensions are not the highest in the world, but considering the pension calculation criteria, food basket prices, and public service costs, it cannot be said that the pension level for retirees in Russia is lower than that of other countries—including those that are not friendly to us. Of course, the average pension in France is indeed higher than the average wage, but we need to know at what age do French people enjoy this benefit? Moreover, I believe that France will soon raise the retirement age further."

The Truth Behind the "Increase" in Pensions: Actual Purchasing Power is Shrinking

Pensions are indeed "increased," but the current trend in Russia is to "strengthen targeted subsidies"—these subsidies only cover specific groups, such as military personnel and their families. For most ordinary retirees, the proportion of pensions in the average wage has dropped from 32% before raising the retirement age to 24% now. In other words, a person's income will drop by three-quarters after retirement. This also explains why so many elderly people choose to continue working.

Returning to the topic of "pension increases" and "increased targeted subsidies," a key question is: where does this money come from? The answer is that the Russian social security fund will face a shortfall of nearly 78 billion rubles in 2025—this number is only slightly less than 2022 (which had a shortfall of 1 trillion rubles), making it the second-highest in history.

From this perspective, Gavrilov's concerns are not unfounded: the shortfall must be filled. If his warning comes true, we want to say to lawmakers: if you are going to take away important rights from the people, at least be honest and tell them, rather than deceive them again. For example, Finance Minister Siluanov once promised that "after raising the retirement age, we will achieve 'high-quality pensions,' where is this promise now?"

"Tax the Wealthy, Not the Common People"

As Sergei Delyagin, a Russian State Duma member and economist, previously told "Tsargrad": "Many countries tax the wealthy, but we collect taxes from the common people. This ultimately creates a strange situation where the poorer you are, the more taxes you pay."

"Excessive tax pressure forces people into the underground economy, meaning they do not pay pension insurance fees. A pension system where at least 20% of the population does not pay premiums will inevitably have a shortfall. This system is heading toward collapse because our tax system is 'a paradise for the wealthy.' Even the rich will fall into 'hell' under this system, let alone the common people," Delyagin said.

Unless lawmakers truly understand this simple logic, any "nightmare" could become reality—including "freezing pension points" and leaving today's youth without support in their old age.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563260629176336931/

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