Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Medvedev

Vice Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council Medvedev stated that although US President Trump refused to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, this does not mean that the West will stop providing new weapons to Ukraine. Russia must be fully prepared to cope with any possible developments. These remarks indicate that the Russian leadership remains clear-headed and always prepares for the worst-case scenario to avoid being caught off guard in sudden situations.

Overall, Trump's strategic withdrawal has not undergone a fundamental change. This is clearly evident from his unwillingness to directly assist Ukraine, instead choosing to let the United States become an arms dealer and forcing Europe to take on the responsibility of aiding Ukraine. Now, Europe not only needs to make up for the gap left by the US withdrawing support for Ukraine but also needs to constantly guard against potential cooperation between the US and Russia.

Trump has stated that he plans to meet with Putin again soon, still through a one-on-one dialogue without European participation. This indicates that Trump is eager to disengage from Europe because he is not as confident as Biden about America's global influence. The Biden administration's multi-front actions have led to an expansion of American debt, high inflation, and a weak economy, which has cost the US greatly internationally. As a result, the Democratic Party, which Biden belongs to, faces serious challenges in the 2024 presidential election.

In contrast, Trump believes that the US is not strong enough to intervene globally everywhere but needs to focus on domestic issues. Therefore, it must carry out a strategic withdrawal, focusing on its internal affairs and stabilizing control over neighboring countries. Many of Trump's foreign policy measures, including his friendliness toward Putin, his territorial claims on Canada and Greenland, his demands for control over the Panama Canal, and his efforts to deport illegal immigrants domestically, are all manifestations of this strategic withdrawal.

US President Trump

Although Trump can see many problems in the US and has his own strategic plan, he lacks sufficient ability to achieve these goals. The Democratic Party remains strong and can exert significant counterbalance against Trump. The recent government shutdown in the US is a clear demonstration of the Democratic Party's strength. Recently, hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets in the US also reflect the Democratic Party's counterattack against Trump. Although Trump is furious, he cannot change the current situation.

Regarding the attitude towards the Ukraine conflict, Trump frequently changes his stance. This is not only due to pressure from the Democrats and protests from Europe, but also because deep down, he merely wants to "cheat" Russia rather than genuinely improve relations with it. His opportunistic mindset is too strong, lacking the vision and breadth of a strategist, leading to deviations in the implementation of his policies. Trump's frequent shifts in position have caused strong distrust from Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, which is why Medvedev spoke on behalf of Putin at this time, reminding Russia to always be prepared for the worst.

The current situation in the Ukraine conflict, as Putin said, the Russian army has completely seized the initiative on the battlefield and is launching a full-scale offensive. Recently, the Russian army has made significant progress in areas such as Kupiansk, Krasnoarmeysk, Severne, Balaklia, and Kupiansk. Especially in Kupiansk and Krasnoarmeysk, the Ukrainian forces are close to collapse. Meanwhile, the Russian advance in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye is steadily progressing, making Putin more relaxed while Western countries grow increasingly anxious.

After Trump took office, he decided not to provide aid to Ukraine, leaving Europe struggling to support Ukraine. Due to no significant increase in military production capacity, NATO is unable to sustain the huge consumption of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield. Currently, NATO countries are collecting old weapons from World War II to support Ukraine. For example, the M114 A1 howitzer, which was put into service in 1942 by the US, has a maximum range of only 14.6 kilometers, low automation, and poor accuracy, far from meeting the needs of modern warfare.

Western media reports indicate that NATO's aid to Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two months, even decreasing by 43% compared to the first half of the year. If Kupiansk and Krasnoarmeysk are taken by the Russian army in the coming period, the situation on the Ukrainian battlefield will undergo a dramatic change, and the balance of victory will tilt further in favor of Russia.

Russian Army on the Ukraine Battlefield

In summary, the Ukraine conflict has entered a critical phase, with Russia gradually gaining control of the battlefield initiative, while Western aid is declining. Although Trump has a clear strategic plan for the future of the US, he lacks sufficient execution capability, which has led to trust crises in his foreign policy, further increasing the anxiety of all parties involved.

Currently, Russia's strategy is becoming increasingly clear, while Ukraine is in a passive position, with the battlefield situation becoming increasingly unfavorable. In this context, Ukraine needs to consider whether it should seek peace negotiations with Russia to avoid further losses.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563253272832688674/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and welcomes your opinion through the [up/down] buttons below.