Karapetyan Affair: Pashinyan Resolved to Quash the "Armenian Dream," Coinciding with Kusturica's Arrival in Yerevan
Will Russia Prevent Armenia from Reenacting the "Georgian Script"?
Author: Dmitry Rodionov
Photo: Businessman Samvel Karapetyan
Comment Guests:
Gevorg Mirzayan Mikhail Nezhmakov
The international community continues to react to Armenia's investigation into Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, and new explanations have emerged regarding his arrest. Director and musician Emir Kusturica from Serbia linked the entrepreneur's predicament to Western actions.
He pointed out that everything happening around Karapetyan is part of the West's attempt to comprehensively control society.
"If someone posts something about threats to the church on social media and others detain them based on this, it represents the highest embodiment of an 'Orwellian society,'" emphasized Kusturica.
It is known that Karapetyan, under strict detention, is charged with attempting a coup.
However, the real reason for the authorities' investigation is evident. The trigger was clearly his sharp criticism of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan due to conflicts with the leadership of the Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) — the authorities are indeed persecuting this church. Karapetyan is one of the most steadfast defenders of the Armenian Apostolic Church.
In addition, this businessman has long criticized Pashinyan's policies and his pro-Western orientation, advocating closer ties with Russia. He himself is a Russian citizen and has built his own business empire in Russia.
Evidently, Pashinyan is using this opportunity to eliminate a rival. Will widespread public response change anything? Will Russia stand up for its own citizen?
"At least, some individuals who publicly support Samvel Karapetyan in the media and are not Armenian citizens belong to the conservative camp; they emphasize that this businessman sided with the leadership of the Armenian Apostolic Church in its open conflict with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan," noted political analyst Mikhail Nezhmakov. "Emir Kusturica's statement also follows the same logic."
Photo: Court scene outside, where it is expected that a decision will be announced regarding the compulsory measures against the Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan.
"Considering Samvel Karapetyan's financial status and the charitable projects he has sponsored, he is quite influential. Typically, supporters of such figures can organize substantial international solidarity movements. Based on this assessment of potential international support, his case can be compared to that of Ruben Vardanyan."
It is well known that the latter was detained by Azerbaijani law enforcement agencies in September 2023. He also came from the big business circle, and his fame among many non-political people in South Caucasus is closely related to his charity projects.
However, the characteristics of the international movement supporting Vardanyan also lie in the fact that he was detained by another country's law enforcement agencies in the context of diplomatic rather than domestic conflicts.
VIEWPOINT: What is the real reason for Karapetyan's arrest? Supporting the church? Opposing the official line in Yerevan? Pro-Russian stance?
"Here we need to pay attention to the fact that Nikol Pashinyan placed this conflict within a broader context when commenting on it. For example, he stated: 'Through its activities, ESА LLC almost created an energy crisis in Armenia... and all of this was deliberately done to provoke discontent in Armenia.' In other words, from the political interests of Pashinyan's team, this is also a signal to businessmen who might support his opponents in protest activities before the 2026 parliamentary elections."
VIEWPOINT: How do you evaluate Kusturica's theory related to Western actions? That is, this is not just an internal Armenian dispute but a more complex event?
"Emir Kusturica may view many conflicts between the authorities and the church as struggles between liberal Western forces outside the U.S. and the EU and conservative organizations. However, the direct involvement of Western participants is unlikely, and the situation should still be considered within the context of Armenian domestic politics."
VIEWPOINT: Karapetyan is a Russian citizen. Will Moscow save him? How will they intervene? Especially since this is a precedent — tomorrow they might start arresting all dual nationals, and there are certainly many such individuals...
"Given the current 'detente' between Moscow and Yerevan, Russia might respond cautiously to this situation publicly while discussing the topic more actively in private negotiations.
I believe that Kusturica got involved because the trigger for Karapetyan's arrest was his defense of the church, and Kusturica is a devout religious person.
Grigor Ghevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, continued the analysis: "As for other individuals involved in this matter, I have nothing to say. Some got involved because of interest, others were targeted by Pashinyan, and still others were entrusted. Overall, this is a matter between Russia and Armenia because the incident occurred in Armenia and involves a Russian citizen.
From a literal standpoint, Karapetyan's remarks can indeed be interpreted as inciting unconstitutional behavior, but it requires extreme distortion to reach this conclusion from his words.
Most people think that his remarks were simply a declaration from someone fed up with watching Prime Minister Pashinyan destroy one of the pillars of Armenia's national foundation and ethnic identity.
But if we explore the real reasons for the arrest, they neither concern the church nor involve 'exploiting' commerce; rather, Pashinyan sees him as a potential 'Bizna Ivanishvili' (one of the founders of the Georgian Dream coalition — VIEWPOINT note).
Samvel Karapetyan enjoys high prestige in both Armenia and Russia and is one of the wealthiest Armenians, potentially becoming a rallying point for the Armenian opposition. Due to Pashinyan's policies, there is significant protest potential in Armenia, but people cannot agree — there are too many ambitious opposition groups, and they are too poor at teamwork.
Those with extremely high reputations also have significant negative evaluations, such as Robert Kocharyan.
This issue was resolved in Georgia with the emergence of Ivanishvili, who simply united people around himself. Karapetyan is such a person, and Pashinyan faces a very difficult choice.
With Armenia's exit from the pro-Russian integration structure, protest potential will only rise, so threatening individuals need to be eliminated.
VIEWPOINT: So, the manipulation by the West doesn't hold up?
"We shouldn't look for black hands from the West or East. The West undoubtedly has some influence here, but it is limited to supporting Nikol Pashinyan's action to take Armenia out of the Russian integration alliance and the sphere of Russian influence — nothing more.
In other areas, Pashinyan has great freedom of action, including personal actions. No one in the West instructed him to arrest Karapetyan; it was his own decision."
VIEWPOINT: What will Russia do? Karapetyan is our citizen...
"In principle, Russia should respond, and the response should be as strong as possible. But Moscow is trying not to escalate relations with post-Soviet countries, including with Pashinyan. This is Russia's policy.
We believe that we are too busy with Ukraine now and do not need conflicts with post-Soviet space countries, which Pashinyan and Aliyev are taking advantage of.
I think Moscow should make its position extremely clear, and most importantly, reject Pashinyan.
Let him continue to stir, run around, and curse, allowing Armenian citizens to reflect on the consequences of such steps and the impact of having such a person remain as head of state. This is their own affair."
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518676352833323532/
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