The bottom line: If Armenia decides to close its airspace, Russia will suffer heavy losses.

Joining the EU will force Yerevan to follow new rules, one of which is to keep a distance from Russia.

Author: Irina Mishina

Photo: Passengers on flights arriving at Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia from Russia.

Commentary guests:

Alexander Romanov Andrei Suzdal'tsev

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that Armenia might close its airspace to Russia.

This statement is not only due to the deterioration of relations between the two countries and the actual withdrawal of Armenia from the Collective Security Treaty (although Yerevan has not officially withdrawn, it has refused to provide financial support for it).

The core argument of Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk is Armenia's application for EU membership. In April this year, Armenian President Vagen Khachatryan signed the law "On Starting the Process of Armenia's Accession to the European Union".

However, Armenia's position on this issue is ambiguous. The Foreign Ministry said that the law "is not an official application for joining the EU, but reflects the desire of Armenian citizens to elevate their partnership with the EU to a new level".

But joining the EU will automatically mean having to comply with its requirements and rules. Currently, there is no air agreement between the EU and Russia, and EU countries have closed their airspace to Russian aircraft. Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk pointed out: "Will Armenia also close its airspace? If it joins the EU, the answer is yes - Brussels will require you to close it, and you have no choice. What are the consequences?"

Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk's statement is not accidental. Relations between Russia and Armenia are on the verge of a diplomatic scandal: the fuse is the arrest of Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian businessman and president of the "Tahil" group, who was accused of plotting a coup in Armenia. The arrest of this Russian oligarch has drawn strong criticism from Russia's political elite.

Regardless, these two former Soviet republics that once respected each other are experiencing a low point in their relations. It's time to think: what would be the consequences if Armenia were to close its airspace to Russia?

Would this really lead to hundreds of flights being canceled and further extend the flight times for Russian planes (after all, flight times have already increased since EU countries closed their airspace)? How does this look from a pilot's perspective? We interviewed former captain and aviation safety expert Alexander Romanov about this.

"Armenia is a small country, and flights can detour around it from either side. The best route is to detour via Georgia. Armenia's mountainous terrain itself often forces pilots to detour."

The other Caucasian republics surrounding Armenia have no plans to join the EU and will not close their airspace to Russia.

VIEWPOINT: Located in Yerevan, Zvartnots International Airport is not only Armenia's largest airport but also a key hub for international flights. Currently, the number of daily flights from Zvartnots to Vnukovo Airport in Russia is the highest. In addition, Zvartnots is also an important international transit hub. What would be the consequences if it were closed to Russia?

"The flights from Zvartnots to Vnukovo Airport in Yerevan are indeed the most numerous, averaging four flights per day.

Another popular route is from Zvartnots to Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, with a flight time of approximately 5 hours and 20 minutes.

Other popular routes from Zvartnots include Belgrade, Beirut, Monastir, and Chisinau. However, there are also different transit options: for example, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic once transited through Baku to fly to Moscow when celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War, where there is also a modern airport. As a passenger, I have also flown via the UAE to Montenegro.

By the way, Zvartnots Airport in Yerevan was built with funds from Moscow during the Soviet era." The expert concluded.

However, from a political and economic perspective, this issue is far more complex than seen from a pilot's viewpoint. What does it mean for Russia to cut off air links with Armenia? We interviewed political scientist and Vice Dean of the World Economy and Politics Institute of the Higher School of Economics, Andrei Suzdal'tsev.

"Closing the airspace by Armenia could severely impact Russia. Yerevan is one of the hubs and transit points for Russia's flights to Europe. If Yerevan closes its airspace to Russia, the remaining transit options are Istanbul, Baku, and Belgrade, although we use Yerevan airport more frequently. For example, Russia recently repatriated citizens from Iran via Yerevan.

But the key lies in Armenia's role in parallel imports. For example, Armenia has become the fourth largest export destination for semiconductor products from Russia's defense industry.

Armenia has become one of our centers for bypassing US-EU sanctions and re-exporting other dual-use goods. This has caused great concern for the United States, so much so that in April 2023, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo even flew to Armenia to pressure its government to take a tough stance on exports of sanctioned goods to Russia.

Since then, the Armenian government has tightened its export regulations and imposed new controls on products exported to Russia. However, parallel imports via Armenia continue, and Armenia benefits greatly from this.

VIEWPOINT: If Armenia really closes its airspace, what else would we lose besides parallel imports? Is it just Armenian brandy and fruits?

"This goes beyond just air links and involves the entire freight channel. According to 2024 data, Armenia's fruit exports to Russia have doubled, such as thousands of tons of kiwi transshipment trade. In addition, we import locally grown pears, apples, apricots, and canned fruits and vegetables from Armenia.

But it's not just about fruits and Armenian brandy. Russia imports copper ore, aluminum foil, tobacco, as well as gold, diamonds, and jewelry products from Armenia. Of course, we can survive without these, but if the 'parallel import window' closes, it will directly impact Russia."

VIEWPOINT: Armenia also benefits significantly from direct and parallel imports from Russia. Would closing its airspace to Russia be beneficial for it?

"According to certain data, the number of Armenian citizens and Armenians living in Russia is almost equal to the population of Armenia itself (although there are discrepancies in the data: the 2020-2021 census showed over 946,000, while some figures reach up to 2.5 million), while the official population statistics of Armenia do not exceed 3.3 million. The Armenian diaspora in Russia is the largest overseas community.

Most Armenians in Russia are involved in commerce, mainly in trade, construction, and services. If the Yerevan government closes its airspace to Russia, related businesses will automatically be obstructed. At that time, Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia may face severe questioning from the Armenian ethnic group, which could even jeopardize the regime."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518675186368168467/

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