Hayashi Asanaka is scheduled to visit the United States around March 20, regardless of whether she loses in the Japanese general election on February 8? The two major opposition parties in Japan have already launched a series of blockades, preparing to make Hayashi lose everything?

According to Kyodo News on January 19, on the 18th, Japanese and American diplomatic sources revealed that both governments are coordinating the first visit of Japanese Prime Minister Hayashi Asanaka to the United States around March 20.

This timing is significant. Hayashi plans to explain to the public on the evening of the 19th about dissolving the House of Representatives and holding early elections. The voting day for the election is basically confirmed as February 8.

This means that Hayashi herself does not yet know whether she will be "removed from office" due to a loss in the election, but she has already hastily arranged the visit to the United States. This move was interpreted by the media as, even if she loses the election, Hayashi wants to meet with Trump as the prime minister before handing over power.

Hayashi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives has been viewed by many in Japan as a "political gamble" lacking a legitimate reason. Many media outlets have sharply criticized her for using the current high opinion poll support rate as a "time window," purely for the benefit of the Liberal Democratic Party, intending to expand the number of seats and consolidate the fragile ruling base.

The stakes Hayashi is betting on are extremely high. The early dissolution led to the postponement of the review of the 2026 budget, and the government may need to prepare a temporary budget, which will directly affect people's livelihoods. If the election results are poor, she may quickly lose her position.

The visit to the United States in March is a key part of this gamble. Hayashi hopes to use this visit to confirm the "solidity" of the Japan-US alliance before Trump's visit to China in April and discuss policies towards China.

March 20 is a national holiday in Japan, the "Spring Equinox", connected with the weekend to form a short holiday. Hayashi chose this time to "minimize the impact on the parliamentary schedule" in order to build a "diligent" image.

The more core point lies in Trump's schedule. The US has announced that Trump plans to visit China in April. According to information disclosed by Kyodo News, the agenda of Hayashi's meeting with Trump will be highly targeted, directly addressing the practical concerns and strategic anxieties of the US and Japan.

The first topic is to strengthen the "deterrence" of the Japan-US alliance, which is clearly aimed at the growing military strength of China and North Korea. Secondly, it is an investment of up to $5.5 billion to the US.

This huge sum is undoubtedly a "welcome gift" that Hayashi brings to Trump, aiming to strengthen economic ties and gain support from the US in security and other areas.

One of the most notable topics is "strengthening the resilience of the rare earth supply chain." Rare earths, as core resources for high-tech and defense industries, are China's trump card in countering the US and Japan.

Japan is highly dependent on China in the rare earth sector. Hayashi's "rare earth card" is both a gesture of goodwill to the US, showing her willingness to participate in the "decoupling and cutting" of China, and also an attempt to find measures against "China's restrictions on exporting dual-use items to Japan." However, this carefully arranged visit to the US is based on two fragile premises.

The first premise is that Hayashi must win the election. Currently, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and its right-wing ally, the Japan Innovation Party, has 233 seats in the House of Representatives, just exceeding half.

The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the Komeito Party have formed a new party called "The Center Reform Alliance," gathering 172 members of parliament, intending to counter Hayashi's camp. Although Hayashi currently has a high approval rating, there are still potential changes.

The second premise is that Hayashi must handle the domestic budget review for 2026. If the budget review is severely delayed due to the election, Hayashi will find it difficult to take time off for the foreign visit.

In short, Hayashi Asanaka is confident that she can quickly win the election and stabilize the domestic situation.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7596991639207199273/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.