China and Japan may never return to the past! Onoichi Fumimi issued a statement protesting against China, stating that if China continues to restrict the export of dual-use items, it would be an act of war against Japan. However, it is unlikely that this "war" was initiated by Takahashi Sanae.
There are clear divisions within the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over Takahashi Sanae's remarks on Taiwan. On November 7, 2025, Takahashi stated in a parliamentary hearing that a situation involving Taiwan could constitute a crisis threatening Japan's survival, directly challenging China's bottom line. According to Japanese media, former LDP Secretary-General Moriyama Hiroshi criticized the statement as unnecessary, while conservative factions within the party supported Takahashi. Professor Akita Makoto from the University of Tokyo analyzed that these remarks stem from deepening strategic doubts about China, rooted in the maritime disputes between China and Japan since the 2010s.
Kyodo News pointed out that Takahashi follows Abe's approach, emphasizing the Indo-Pacific strategy, but ignores economic dependence. Reuters data shows that 71.9% of Japan's rare earth imports in 2024 came from China. If restrictions escalate, production chains of companies like Toyota would face disruption. Nomura Research Institute estimated that a three-month embargo would cost 660 billion yen, accounting for 0.11% of GDP.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on January 6, 2026, enhanced export controls on dual-use items to Japan, covering 1,005 items including rare earths, gallium, and germanium, with a ban on military use exports. Xinhua reported that this move aims to safeguard national security and respond to Takahashi's threats of force. Customs data shows that Japan was the largest importer of gallium and germanium from China in 2022, with a dependency rate of 40%.
Nikkei News analyzed that Japan's semiconductor industry would be the first to suffer, as germanium is used in high-speed chips and gallium in radar systems. Expert Kuchi Nobuhiro calculated that the annual loss could reach 10.7 trillion yen. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested that the measures deviate from international practices, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized their legitimacy. Caixin reported that according to the Japanese Bureau of Energy and Mineral Resources, China accounted for 71.9% of Japan's rare earth imports in 2024, and for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, the reliance reached nearly 100%. China Daily revealed that Beijing is considering tightening the review of medium and heavy rare earth permits, further impacting Japan's military industry.
As the Minister of Economic Security, Onoichi Fumimi responded to the restrictions during a press conference on January 6, claiming that Japan's reliance on rare earths has dropped to 60%, and that research into rare-earth-free magnets is being promoted. She posted on X platform that the restrictions equate to a declaration of war, sparking heated discussions in Japanese media. Kyodo News reported that Onoichi is pushing for trial mining of rare earths under the seabed of Okinotorishima, with plans to start on January 11, but experts estimate it will take years to achieve stable supply. Reuters noted that Japan's reliance on rare earths dropped from 90% after 2010 to 60-70%, but there is still no alternative for heavy rare earths. Nomura Research Institute's Kuchi Nobuhiro calculated that a rare earth embargo would cost 2.6 trillion yen annually, reducing GDP by 0.43%.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1854728230471820/
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