（By Observer Net, Zhang Jiadong, Editor: Gao Xin）
According to a report by Nikkei Asia on January 19, in the recent trading week, the stock prices of major U.S. automobile manufacturers showed a significant decline. General Motors' stock fell by about 3%, Ford's stock dropped by about 4%, and Stellantis saw a drop of around 11%.
Trump visits an American auto factory, Getty Images
Several foreign media outlets and analytical institutions stated that this decline is closely related to Trump's reiteration of his "support for American auto workers" stance last week, as well as his public remarks of "welcoming China in."
Different from the firm attitude toward Chinese cars a year ago, this 180-degree open attitude seems to indicate a weakening of Trump's hostility toward Chinese cars. However, the market reaction has been the opposite. The capital market focuses more on corporate profit prospects, trade barriers, and the uncertainty of industrial roadmaps.
The setbacks in the electrification strategies of General Motors and Ford, the increased profit pressure on Stellantis, and the continued pressure from trade and technology restrictions have cast a heavier shadow over the U.S. auto market. As for the Chinese auto industry, which has received Trump's verbal relaxation, how it will explore the U.S. market under these conditions remains full of questions.
Invitation and Obstruction Coexist
In other words, the market's reaction also signals a deeper contradiction within the U.S. government's approach to global trade, namely, what does Trump's "openness" really mean?
Trump's statement of "welcoming Chinese car companies" was made during his visit to Michigan in mid-January. He emphasized that he hopes Chinese car manufacturers invest in and build factories in the United States, using American labor to create jobs.
However, this statement still rests on the premise of maintaining high tariffs on Chinese imports in the U.S. In other words, compared to Trump's own resistance, the U.S. government has imposed 25% or even 100% tariffs on Chinese-made cars since last year, and has established strict safety regulatory rules for vehicle connectivity and navigation systems. These are seen as substantial obstacles to Chinese vehicles entering the market.
American Trade Representative Griles, Bloomberg
American Trade Representative Griles publicly stated in an interview with foreign media that the reason why few Chinese cars are sold in the U.S. is "because we impose tariffs to protect American auto workers and the public from these vehicles." He also specifically pointed out that new cybersecurity and data regulation rules would pose significant obstacles to Chinese vehicles entering the market.
The broader political atmosphere is not simply a two-party opposition—both parties' legislators have expressed strong opposition to Chinese cars. For example, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno said, "As long as I have breath, I will never let Chinese cars be sold in the U.S." This shows that there is a stronger resistance in Congress and regulatory circles than in the Trump administration.
Therefore, even if the White House has a "welcome" statement, the real institutional environment for the U.S. automotive industry remains high-barrier and strongly restricted. This means that Chinese automakers, if they want to enter the U.S. market, need to find ways within the complex institutional and political constraints beyond relying on tariff negotiations or occasional policy dividends.
Globalization Trend Is Irreversible
From another perspective, Trump's statement also reflects the strong momentum of the Chinese automotive industry in the process of globalization.
The South China Morning Post recently reported that 2026 could become a milestone year for Chinese cars going overseas. Since the start of the new year, more Western countries have been relaxing access barriers to Chinese electric vehicles.
On January 16, Canada abolished the 100% punitive tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and set an annual quota; the EU also adjusted the tax rate through a new price commitment mechanism.
Chinese cars waiting for export, South China Morning Post
In terms of sales, BYD delivered a total of nearly 160,000 units to Europe in the first 11 months of last year, representing a growth of about 276%, showing that Chinese new energy vehicles have gained recognition in mature markets.
Although export growth faces pressure from rising base effects and slowing European sales, the performance of Chinese companies in other important markets remains strong: Data from the China Passenger Car Association show that the shipment volume of electric vehicles from mainland China in 2025 grew by about 104% year-on-year, continuing to maintain its position as the largest market globally. In emerging markets like Brazil, Chinese car brands have become the main driving force for market growth.
These global dynamics indicate that the overseas expansion of Chinese electric vehicles is not only expanding the market scale but also reshaping the global value chain and product value levels. And Trump's relaxation precisely proves that even in the slow-moving smart and electric transformation of the U.S., there is also a need for the Chinese automotive industry's stimulation.
Potential Three Paths
Under this context, Chinese automakers and supply chain enterprises are moving from being "excluded" to facing challenges and opportunities. According to foreign media reports and the self-exploration of Sino-U.S. enterprises, this exploration may involve three potential paths.
Path One: Supply Chain First Integration
Before the current institutional gate is fully opened, the most realistic way may not be the entry of complete vehicles, but rather the integration of supply chain capabilities into the U.S. automotive industry system. The core of this model is not to appear as a "Chinese complete vehicle brand," but instead to integrate supply chain capabilities into the local industry system, focusing on technology and manufacturing to replace brand direct competition.
An example is the battery supply cooperation between Ford and BYD.
Ford F-150 production line, Oriental Image
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Ford is discussing with BYD the procurement of batteries for its hybrid models and the use of these batteries in factories outside the U.S. For Ford, in the context of shrinking pure electric strategy and expanding hybrid and range-extended vehicle lineup, stable battery supply is crucial. For BYD, entering the U.S. manufacturing chain as an "industry partner" without directly touching the politically sensitive points of整车 sales, allows them to enter the U.S. manufacturing chain with battery and core components first.
The case of Korean battery companies has been proven feasible; Chinese companies have obvious competitiveness in batteries, chips, and software.
Path Two: Domestic Production as an Alternative to Market Access
Trump repeatedly emphasized in his speech that he welcomes Chinese companies to build factories in the U.S. Fundamentally, this is an extension of his slogan of creating jobs and using American labor. That is to say, if Chinese automakers are willing to shift to investing and building factories in the U.S., the political resistance might be partially alleviated.
This localization means that Chinese automakers need to establish整车 or platform manufacturing bases in the U.S.; deeply bind with local capital and suppliers; and participate in market competition with the identity of "Made in the USA."
However, the resistance of this path is evident: U.S. regulations on networked and data security pose additional compliance requirements for Chinese companies; there is cross-party opposition at the congressional level; and unions and industry interest groups may also form an opposing stance.
Even so, Chinese automakers are not without the possibility of directly participating in the U.S. market competition. According to a January disclosure by The Wall Street Journal, Geely Holding Group is evaluating the possibility of entering the U.S. market. Its global communications director Ash Sutcliffe clearly stated during CES that the company "is likely to announce its U.S. expansion plan within 24 to 36 months," and the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands have the basic conditions to enter the U.S. market.
Volvo's plant in South Carolina, Volvo official website
Different from most Chinese automakers, Geely is not "starting from scratch" in the U.S. Currently, Geely Group's Volvo has a factory in South Carolina, producing complete vehicles for the U.S. market for a long time; the Robotaxi deployed on the streets of the U.S. by Alphabet's Waymo is also manufactured by Zeekr.
This advantage can help Chinese automakers win the opportunity to bypass political and public opposition. Joe McCabe, CEO of AutoForecast Solutions, said that in the U.S., some car brands are well-known to consumers, but it is not necessarily known that they are connected to China. Volvo is a typical example.
More importantly, the "affordable price" mentioned by Trump in Detroit is also his core slogan for promoting the revival of fuel vehicles and suppressing electric vehicles. In the U.S., this usually refers to cars priced between $20,000 and $30,000 (approximately 139,000 to 209,000 RMB).
Nikkei Asia stated that although the U.S. currently imposes a 100% tariff on Chinese cars, even if the price of Chinese car models doubles, the selling price is still below $30,000 (approximately 209,000 RMB). The reason these models can be sold at such low prices is because they are produced in China. However, if these companies can also produce in the U.S., they may have considerable competitiveness.
Path Three: Persisting in Peripheral Ecological Rebuilding
The third path is not targeting the direct entry into the U.S. market, but rather establishing production and supply bases in North America or surrounding regions to form a peripheral ecosystem for the U.S. market. This is also the approach many Chinese automakers have chosen since last year when the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on China.
For example, BYD's electric vehicle manufacturing plant in Brazil has become an important manufacturing hub in South America and has laid the foundation for the BYD brand in the regional market. Similarly, Geely accumulated localized operation experience in mature markets through Volvo's manufacturing and sales in Europe.
Chinese automakers are strengthening construction in places like Mexico, Shutterstock
Under this path, Chinese automakers and their supply chains will continue to strengthen investments in manufacturing and R&D centers in regions such as Mexico and Brazil, forming an ecological system with local suppliers, and supplying the U.S.整车 market through regional trade agreements and cost advantages.
This indirect entry through the form of U.S. trade partners also helps the Chinese automotive industry bypass U.S. tariffs to enter its market. However, in an environment where geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, the U.S. has repeatedly imposed tariff pressures on neighboring regions or countries, and this strong attitude will still place pressure on Chinese automakers' investments in those regions.
The Primary Task Is Not Selling Cars
Overall, Trump's statement of "letting China in" is neither an open door for Chinese complete vehicles nor a commitment to comprehensive trade liberalization. It is more like a policy-oriented rhetorical test.
Under the premise of unrelaxed trade barriers and strict institutional review, the U.S. continues to maintain restrictions while trying to attract capital and technology, and stimulate domestic employment through openness in investment and manufacturing areas.
Under this context of combined institutional and political pressure, the primary task for Chinese automakers and their supply chain enterprises to enter the U.S. market is certainly not selling how many cars, but rather "what identity to exist."
North American Auto Show to be held, Voice of America
After all, under Trump's radical policy reforms over the past year, the U.S. car market has already been trending towards "reverse electrification," and the extent to which the advantages of the Chinese automotive industry in intelligent and electric fields can play in this environment remains unknown.
From this perspective, whether as a supply chain partner, as a local manufacturer, or as part of a North American regional ecosystem, every possible path that Chinese cars may choose to go to the U.S. carries different risks and returns.
But from the perspective of the globalized automotive industry ecology, the Chinese automotive industry is shifting from "exporting complete vehicles" to becoming a "global system participant." In this process, the U.S. market has never been the only path for Chinese brands to go abroad. However, if more Chinese automotive companies can reach the U.S. market amid complex political games, it may verify a complete ecological path that embodies Chinese capabilities but is not simply labeled as "Chinese cars," covering technology, factories, and the entire supply chain system.
As McCabe said, the entry of Chinese companies into the U.S. market is just a matter of time. But the process and form of this entry still need to be continuously refined and verified.
This article is an exclusive article from Observer Net. Without permission, it cannot be reprinted.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597011543280189967/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.