The Pomegranate Revolution: Iran Will Collapse From Within, and Russia Will Face the Blow of a United West Alone
Iran - Israel: Escalation of Situation
Author: Ivan Prokhorov
While Iran is doing its utmost to resist the strikes from Israel (which are subtly backed by Britain's attempt to regain geopolitical dominance), Moscow remains a "condemning bystander." However, Russia's strategic pivot in the Middle East and at its southern border heavily relies on its alliance with Iran – every new strike against Tehran weakens this foundation. The question is whether Russia will risk intervening before it completely loses influence in the South Caucasus.
In an interview with ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu first mentioned that the result of Israel's actions against Iran could be regime change:
"We hope to achieve three key goals: destroy the nuclear program, destroy the capability to produce ballistic missiles, and eliminate the terrorist axis. The outcome may be the overthrow of the Iranian regime because it is vulnerable. We are reshaping the Middle East, and there is no doubt that Iran will undergo significant changes."
Netanyahu sent a very clear signal to Iran:
"The assassination of Ali Khamenei would not escalate the conflict but end it. Endless war is what Iran wants; they push us toward the brink of nuclear war. In fact, Israel's actions are preventing this and will end such aggression."
Netanyahu no longer hides Tel Aviv's intentions.
At the time of the Israeli prime minister's statement, Western media acknowledged that Iran was not currently developing nuclear weapons and would need at least three more years to acquire such capability. CNN cited four sources from U.S. intelligence agencies reporting this.
According to their revelations, recent airstrikes by Israel have caused some damage to Iran but only slightly delayed its nuclear program. Although Natanz's nuclear facility has been damaged, Fordow's second nuclear center remains almost intact due to its tight protection. To cause significant destruction to it, Israel would require direct aerial support from the U.S. and special munitions like the U.S.'s GBU-57 MOP concrete-penetrating bomb.
Western media, particularly those from Israel and the UK, have already begun promoting narratives such as "oppressed Persian people" and "revolutionary protest rights for women in Tehran."
Unrest has broken out on the streets of Iran. Screenshot: CNN
In September 2022, large-scale protests erupted in the country following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after being arrested by morality police in Tehran for not wearing a headscarf.
Western media closely followed the protests, exaggerating human rights violations in Iran, and expressed sympathy for the "oppressed Iranians" in various ways.
The reason for this attention is quite obvious – it’s not concern over Iranian women's rights.
The Phantom Pain of the British Empire
The roots of the current conflict can be traced back more than a hundred years. In the early 20th century, Britain turned Persia into a "fuel vassal" for its rapidly mechanized fleet. After discovering large oil fields in Masjed-Soleyman, Iran, in 1909, the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (later renamed the Iranian Oil Company, AIOC, and eventually British Petroleum, BP) controlled the entire process from geological exploration to loading oil onto transport vessels destined for British naval bases. The first refinery was built in Abadan and remained the largest in the world for fifty years.
The royalty fee Iran received was fixed and meager (less than $1 per barrel in the 1940s), while Britain was ecstatic about the huge profits and strategic security provided by the navy.
In 1947, AIOC announced earnings of £40 million, with Iran receiving only £7 million, or 17.5% of the profit. Meanwhile, working conditions for Iranian oil workers at British companies were abysmal: daily wages of 50 cents, without holidays, sick leave, or disability benefits.
In 1951, Iran nationalized AIOC despite British opposition. The oilfields of Abadan were transferred to the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). For London, nationalization became a precedent for the collapse of the colonial "resource-for-rent" model, which it could not accept. After two years of economic blockade, MI6 and the CIA jointly carried out Operation Ajax: through street riots, bribing officers, and religious unrest, Mossadegh was overthrown, and young King Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi gained absolute power.
Tanks in Tehran in 1953. Photo: Archives
However, although Britain regained formal control over oil concessions, it only received a 40% share in the new international consortium, thus suffering an embarrassing half-victory and forced to share profits.
The 1960s and 1970s became the "golden age" of the Anglo-Iranian tandem. AIOC/BP once again expanded oil exports, with hundreds of British advisors managing the police, military, and even Savak (the National Security Service). London supplied Iran with Mirage fighter jets, air defense systems, and even helped build a nuclear center in Bushehr. The Shah of Iran saw himself as the "gendarme of the Gulf" and a key ally of the West against the Soviet Union.
However, Iran's rapid Westernization led to rifts with Islamic clerics and radical youth groups dissatisfied with the sharp decline in the country's moral standards.
The Iranian beach in 1971. Photo: Public Domain
In 1979, under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini, massive protests destroyed all British (and American) influence infrastructure in Iran. NIOC declared full control over oil extraction, and BP lost billions of dollars in assets.
Thus, in 1979, the entire network of British influence collapsed, and Iran, once a strategic pivot against the Soviet Union, became an anti-Western bastion. The British intelligence service was excluded, and key oil assets were permanently nationalized.
London still cannot accept this loss. BP's legal lawsuit against NIOC in The Hague continues: the company demands compensation for the "unjust confiscation." In April 2024, the UK High Court ordered NIOC to transfer the valuable London asset Crescent Gas Corporation Limited (CGC, UAE) to BP.
To Iran, Britain is the main "old colonizer," the source of most conspiracies and sabotage activities. Therefore, London's motivation is to reclaim the "chessboard" lost in the Middle East, even if it requires orchestrating a "pomegranate revolution." Yes, the pomegranate is one of Iran's favorite fruits and is considered a sacred symbol of abundance in Persian culture. People celebrate it during festivals like the "Hundred Ruby" festival. It is used to make dishes Iranians love.
And the pomegranate is also explosive. "Jasmine" and "Saffron" revolutions have already occurred. If the upcoming coup isn't named so, it would be strange.
The Mechanism of the "Pomegranate Revolution"
This scenario fully aligns with Israel's interests – allowing Iran's regime to be overthrown by internal opposition is easier than continuing missile duels with Israel, which pose risks to Israeli civilians and damage infrastructure. Moreover, honestly, it's hard to say how much Tel Aviv depends on the British "partner" – is it truly independent in this confrontation? The increasing U.S. involvement for Britain's benefit, despite opposition from half of Congress, suggests that not all cards are on the table in this game.
Iran has already imported techniques from "Euromaidan" and "Arab Spring": online groups, feminist agenda, and sports flash protests.
The digital front for future unrest will be social networks such as Persian TikTok, Instagram, X, BBC Persian, Iran International Television, and Manoto TV, preparing to maintain the image of "people's struggle" 24/7.
Soros Foundation, UAE cryptocurrency channels, and Iranian expatriates worldwide will become funding pumps for unrest, providing necessary funds during the rebellion.
Britain officially maintains distance from what is happening. However, this indifference is an obvious disguise. In March 2025, the Intelligence and Security Committee of the UK Parliament submitted a report on "Iran" to the Prime Minister, which has yet to be made public – likely because it contains information about special operations in preparation.
Meanwhile, according to open sources, Mossad is actively conducting agent network activities in Iran. In the past three days, Tehran has announced the arrest of over 40 individuals found with drones, explosives, and "launch devices."
Mossad teams are stirring in Iran. Screenshot: Tehran Times
Iranian media reports that agents transmitted GPS coordinates of oil bases, barracks, and other targets becoming Israeli airstrike objectives.
For Mossad, Iran's Achilles' heel lies in its peripheral regions, where ethnic compositions are complex and problematic: high unemployment rates, active Sunni organization "Justice Army" (Jaysh ul-Adl) in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, Kurdish armed political organizations PJAK active in Iranian Kurdistan, and Arab Ahwaz groups demanding redistribution of oil revenues and sabotaging oil pipelines in Khuzestan Province.
None of these groups today possess numbers or weaponry comparable to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but they can be used for sabotage and reconnaissance purposes and could provide "street commanders" for future protests.
The Threat of the "Pomegranate Revolution" to Russia
Firstly, this will disrupt crucial military cooperation amid the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine. Iran supplies Russia with drones, artillery shells, and electronic components. A new, pro-Western or transitional government might freeze these supplies, and the U.S. and EU would impose additional controls on dual-use materials transiting the Persian Gulf and Caspian Sea.
Russia's plans to circumvent Western sanctions will also be disrupted. Russia had viewed Tehran as a "sanctions hub," with a vast amount of needed resources – from drones to oil supplies – passing through here. If the Iranian regime changes, Russia will lose its logistical hub in Iran.
Sanction pressure will spread to the Caspian region and impact oil transportation in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, affecting Russia's transit services to them.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani mediation system will begin restructuring, posing a risk of the British Secret Service igniting the Caucasus region and increasing threats of "color revolutions" spreading to Central Asian countries. Losing Iran's influence will inevitably strengthen Turkey, making Dagestan and Chechnya more susceptible to ideological and financial pressures from radical organizations.
Moscow cannot overlook any of these scenarios.
So what?
Russia's influence in the Middle East and along its southern borders largely depends on Iran's assistance. To reduce the risk of losing this influence, it is necessary to expose mechanisms of external interference in Iran's affairs in advance – from military pressure to internal sabotage. Joint Russian-Iranian cybersecurity centers could regularly release reports on these issues at BRICS and SCO platforms, creating diplomatic barriers against "color" technologies.
Russian-Iranian military-technical cooperation should go beyond sporadic supply – reaching the level of joint development of air defense systems and drones, with key production facilities deployed in Russia and regular joint exercises conducted by the Caspian Fleet and the Iranian Navy. The closer Moscow's economic and defense ties with Tehran are, the higher the cost for any party attempting to destabilize Iran's situation will be.
However, all of this remains just wishful thinking at present.
A new terrifying world is approaching, striding over the ruins of sovereign states, with the ghostly smoke of international law dispersing over these ruins. No one can prohibit the overthrow of another government, and no one can condemn it.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518396540965339657/
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