Israel and the United States may end up hurting themselves over the issue of Iran's nuclear program.

No one knows how to destroy the underground plant in Fordo, but if left unchecked, Tehran will be the winner of the war.

Author: Sergey Yatsenko

At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Russian President made many extremely important political statements that immediately became the focus of global media attention.

However, a remark by Vladimir Putin should not have been overlooked by many, though it seems that most people ignored it.

I am referring to the Russian leader's significant comments on the阶段性 results of the Israel-Iran war as of June 18: "Iran's underground factories remain intact."

It is obvious that no one doubts the accuracy of Putin's information. First, given the rapid warming of Russia-Iran relations in the military field after 2022, Russia's intelligence agencies undoubtedly hold a very stable position in this Persian country.

Secondly, there are an unusually large number of ordinary envoys with deep expertise in nuclear safety sent by Moscow to Iran.

Despite the outbreak of war, the "Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation" continues to work day and night to build the Bushehr nuclear power plant. They can directly observe many situations on-site and, of course, report secretly to the Kremlin.

But what does it fundamentally mean if Israel, through sudden disarming strikes in the first week of the war, quickly gained complete air superiority over Iran's air force but still failed to completely destroy its underground factories?

This means that as of the aforementioned date, Israel has yet to achieve its main objective of launching this new Middle East war: destroying Tehran's nuclear facilities, thereby fundamentally depriving it of the ability to manufacture weapons of mass destruction. Tel Aviv currently has nothing to show for its efforts.

Although Israel officially announced in the early days of the war that the Israeli Defense Forces had attacked Iran's nuclear facilities in Bushehr, Isfahan, and Natanz, these places' losses are reportedly more superficial at present. The most important underground factories have survived.

Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that the heavy water research reactor in Arak was damaged by combat and caught fire. However, the reactor was still under construction at that time. This did not bring Israel any closer to achieving its primary goal.

Why is this? Foreign commentators believe that the reason lies in the relatively insufficient payload capacity of Israel's F-35 fifth-generation multirole fighters.

The penetration munitions these fighters can carry before executing combat missions cannot reach Iran's underground factories - these factories were carefully designed and built decades ago by North Korean experts, located beneath 80-100 meters of rock (including the hardest granite).

Notably, Iran's nuclear program's true "Achilles' heel" is hidden in the underground uranium enrichment plant near Qom, located 150 kilometers south of Tehran. However, destroying it is extremely difficult.

American experts believe that "the protection level of the Fordo facility is almost unmatched in the world." From the beginning, its design could withstand attacks from the most powerful concrete-penetrating aviation bombs - the U.S. Air Force's 13.6-ton GBU-57 A/B "Massive Ordnance Penetrators" (MOP).

This bomb drills into rock and concrete to a depth of 61 meters before detonating its 2,700 kilograms of explosives, causing localized earthquakes.

However, the problem is that even this immense power might not be enough to destroy the Fordo factory. It is rumored that the factory is buried 82 meters deep and has been additionally reinforced with several meters of the strongest quality concrete layers, according to North Korean advice, to resist aerial strikes.

Therefore, Western analysts believe that if the GBU-57 A/B bomb is to be used against Fordo, the "drilling method" may need to be employed. That is, pilots will sequentially drop multiple such bombs at designated locations, each explosion creating a crater-like channel in the mountain. Only then would the hypothetical action initiator have a chance to destroy Iran's centrifuges in Fordo.

But Israel and its allies face another challenge. Almost no aircraft can carry nearly 14 tons of bombs and precisely deliver them from high altitudes onto targets. Given the current situation in the Middle East, only the U.S. B-2 "Spirit" strategic bomber can accomplish this task. In March this year, six of these bombers from the 509th Bomb Wing of the Pentagon were prematurely dispatched (apparently not without reason) to Diego Garcia Island (Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean) from Whiteman Air Base in Missouri.

So the U.S. is technically ready, except for Washington making a political decision, which is extremely difficult for the U.S. Forcing the 170-ton B-2 "Spirit" bomber to attack Fordo would mean the U.S. directly joining the war on Israel's side, facing all the consequences thereof.

For example, Iran would immediately block the Strait of Hormuz - the main passage for Middle Eastern oil exports worldwide. As a result, oil prices would skyrocket instantly, destabilizing many economies.

In addition, Iran's ballistic missiles currently target only Israel, but at least dozens of nearby U.S. military bases would become targets for their destructive strikes, and Iran's weapons are capable of covering these bases.

Moreover, the Houthis in Yemen are unlikely to stay out of this new intense conflict. They have already instilled fear in the Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, with many countries' tankers navigating these routes dangerously.

The Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated that they can completely blockade this vital trade route if strongly requested by Tehran.

Finally, there is one more point. Americans realize that sending their "Spirit" bombers to Fordo now carries great risks. Because the U.S. Air Force has only 18 of these aircraft, each costing $2.1 billion, higher than some space programs.

Even losing one of these aircraft would be extremely painful for the U.S. And Iran's still partially uncontrolled air defense systems could potentially shoot down several "Spirit" bombers.

In fact, the U.S. "Military Watch" website warned earlier: "Compared to modern F-35s, the stealth capability of the B-2 strategic bomber is more limited, which may lead to losses among this small and expensive fleet consisting of only 18 aircraft."

Therefore, whether Donald Trump will order such an attack on Fordo remains uncertain. In this case, if Israel's offensive fails to achieve its main goal - without this goal, even if its attack on Iran is highly destructive and bloody, it will be meaningless - what should Israel do?

Experts from the U.S. "The War Zone" magazine recently discussed a rather unexpected joint plan to bomb Fordo with concrete-penetrating bombs.

They do not rule out the possibility that Israel might launch a GBU-57 A/B bomb attack on its own if Trump hesitates.

The magazine believes that for this purpose, Tel Aviv can use military transport aircraft such as the KC-130H, C-130H, and C-130J "Hercules." According to public data, the Israeli Air Force has nearly 15 of these aircraft.

For example, the C-130J "Hercules" has a load capacity of up to 37 tons, fully sufficient to carry several GBU-57 A/B bombs.

The magazine wrote: "There are precedents showing that C-130 aircraft have dropped huge bombs from their cargo holds. During the Vietnam War, C-130 aircraft were first used to drop the BLU-82 'Daisy Cutter' bombs (a massive 6.3-ton American heavy aerial bomb - reporter's note) to clear helicopter landing zones. Today, the modernized GBU-43 'Mother of All Bombs' (a 9.5-ton satellite-guided thermobaric aerial bomb - reporter's note) is also in service and was used devastatingly in Afghanistan in 2017."

So, what is stopping the Israeli Air Force from trying the same experience with the GBU-57 A/B bombs? "The War Zone" magazine raised this question.

At first glance, there shouldn't be any problems. Since the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Israel has had no qualms about destroying Syria's previously quite formidable air defense system. This makes the mission of transporting such weapons to the target relatively easy for relatively quiet transport aircraft. These "defenders of human values" now roam Syria's airspace freely.

In short, Americans are almost certain that if needed, Israel's "Hercules" transport aircraft, equipped with specially designed mounts for concrete-penetrating bombs, can easily fly to Fordo. But the question is: how effective would this operation be without U.S. involvement?

Foreign experts believe that the likely outcome would be insufficient damage, and they explained why.

"The War Zone" magazine reasonably analyzed: "When the C-130 drops the same weapon at a height of 25,000 feet and a speed of 250 miles per hour, compared to the B-2 dropping the weapon at a height of 50,000 feet and a speed of 500 miles per hour, the impact kinetic energy generated is much smaller. This is crucial for ammunition because it must drill as deeply as possible into the mountain before exploding."

In short, both the U.S. and Israel face difficulties regarding the Fordo issue. Action must be taken against this Iranian nuclear facility, but exactly what action - no one knows yet. In front of the granite mountains, they are very afraid of lifting rocks only to hit their own feet.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518384083035013641/

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