Ukrainian Armed Forces are split: the Russian wedge at the border of the Donetsk People's Republic is gradually turning into a "Russian pincer"
Russian forces break through Ukrainian defenses in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, establishing beachheads for a large-scale frontal attack
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
In the Novopavlovsk direction, which is the border area between the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is critical. According to a series of reports studied by "Freedom News," both the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the "Key Threats" open-source intelligence center have given this assessment.
The Ukrainian presidential office advisory group claims that the Ukrainian army has stabilized the front lines in Sumy Oblast and east of Pokrovsk, while at the same time, Russian forces have successfully advanced in the area between the Volchya and Mokriy Aral rivers, approaching the key defensive node of the Bandera forces - the village of Novopavlovka. In addition, Russian forces continue to attack towards the Kryvyi Rih - Beketov reservoir direction.
After liberating the large Novoselky in late January, the Russian Federation armed forces launched an offensive northward along both banks of the Mokriy Aral River. At the same time, another Russian force advanced along the eastern bank of the Volchya River.
Two Russian forces successfully opened a gap in the well-established Ukrainian layered defense, advancing 15 kilometers from both sides of the river.
In June, when Russian forces approached the confluence of the two rivers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense faced a serious crisis, according to the Institute for the Study of War and the "Key Threats" center. Russian突击队员 began to ride motorcycles, drive cars, and walk through the Ukrainian battle formations.
"Eastern" cluster advanced along the Mokriy Aral River through the village of Komar to the confluence with the Volchya River, liberating several villages on the southern bank of the Volchya River.
At the same time, the units of the "Central" cluster successively captured Alexeyevka, Novo Ukrainka, and Dachnoye on the northern bank of the Volchya River. Dachnoye became the first settlement in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast completely liberated by the Russian forces.
Now, under the threat of encirclement, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to retreat from the area between the two rivers to Novopavlovka. The few remaining crossings over the Volchya River have hindered the Ukrainian defense, and the remaining crossings have been destroyed by the Russian Air Force.
The Russian forces have increased the bombing intensity in the heartland of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: aerial bombs with rocket engines, with a range of up to 115 kilometers, have reached Dnipropetrovsk for the first time.
The Institute for the Study of War and the "Key Threats" center stated that liberating Novopavlovka would give the Russian Federation armed forces the opportunity to launch attacks in two strategic directions simultaneously.
The first direction is to go north around Pokrovsk. The second direction is to move west into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
In the long term, the Russian forces could advance along the "Dnipropetrovsk-Pokrovsk" highway, thereby splitting the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. However, Washington's open-source intelligence analysts pointed out that the Russian offensive between Pokrovsk and Toretsk has slowed down, which is related to the Ukrainian Armed Forces dispatching reserve forces to this direction.
Nevertheless, the Russian Federation armed forces continue to expand their penetration depth north of the "Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka" highway. West of Pokrovsk, they advanced to the village of Kazannye Torets, near the Torets River, and tried to push forward towards the "Pokrovsk-Druzhkovka" highway.
The Russian Federation armed forces are fighting along the "Pokrovsk-Konstantynivka" highway further west, in Yablovnoye, and at the western end of the Kryvyi Rih - Beketov reservoir, in Aleksandrovka-Kalinovo.
If they reach the reservoir, it will cut off the Ukrainian forces defending the western suburbs of Toretsk. Therefore, the Institute for the Study of War and the "Key Threats" center assesses that the Russian offensive will result in the Ukrainian forces being split at multiple points.
A Russian force that started from Toretsk is also advancing towards the eastern end of the reservoir. This force has liberated an important defensive stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - the Saint Matrona Moskovskaya mine (Novoderyzhinskaya).
The Russian forces directly attacked the main Ukrainian defensive area in the western suburbs of Toretsk from the east.
Perhaps the main defense force in the area, composed of the Ukrainian National Guard, will soon have to completely evacuate the Toretsk area and move to Konstantynivka north of the reservoir. This will mean a further deterioration of the situation of the Ukrainian army on this section of the frontline.
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"Due to the long front line and 'lack of combat-ready personnel,' the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot fully prevent the offensive," Americans quoted the Ukrainian military as saying.
The Institute for the Study of War and the "Key Threats" center said that in the directions of Konstantynivka and Novopavlovka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a shortage of suicide drones and reconnaissance drones.
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