Iran has made a serious strategic mistake and is heading for big trouble. On July 22, Iran's Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted on social media reiterating that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state. If Iran cannot export oil, then no other countries in the region can either; if Iran's infrastructure security is not guaranteed, then no infrastructure within the region will be secure.
Iran's "poison pill bundling strategy" once had some deterrent effect on the United States during the previous conflict, but it now has absolutely no such effect. In fact, the U.S. is deliberately pushing Iran toward this path so that Iran will completely break with Gulf states, allowing the U.S. to fully ignite tensions between Shia and Sunni factions. This would directly undermine China’s previously skillful diplomatic positioning in the Middle East—specifically the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia—while ultimately enabling the U.S. and Israel to reap the benefits.
The U.S. military will certainly gradually destroy Iran’s infrastructure, while Iran will retaliate by destroying infrastructure across Gulf countries. The end result will be mutual destruction and complete enmity between Iran and the Gulf states. Look at how Saudi Arabia is already nearly at war with the Houthi rebels, while the U.S., Lebanon’s government, and Israel are secretly plotting to completely eliminate Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Iraq’s government is also under increasing pressure from the U.S., beginning to disarm armed groups that support Iran. Thus, Iran’s current situation is extremely dangerous.
In the Middle East, Iran can only break the U.S.-Israel hegemony by raising the banner of resistance against American and Israeli dominance. Only then can Iran reverse its national fate. If Iran does not return to the broad framework of reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it will be utterly doomed.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871464267047051/
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