The DPRK Special Forces may take action again: Shoigu's visit to North Korea foreshadows major moves on the Ukrainian front.
North Korea seeks "nuclear amnesty" - Russia is the first country that can help it achieve this.
Author: Irina Mishina
Photo caption: Russian Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu visiting Pyongyang
Commentary guests:
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Perengiev
Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Security Council, has arrived in Pyongyang. The official purpose of his visit is to discuss with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "the specific implementation details of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea," and the agenda also includes matters related to commemorating the North Korean soldiers who once assisted in the liberation of Kursk.
The press office of the Russian Security Council revealed: "The talks will examine the implementation of some provisions of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea, as well as remember the North Korean soldiers who helped liberate the Kursk region. Additionally, current international agenda topics, including the situation in Ukraine, are expected to be discussed."
However, we need to analyze the situation in depth. Shoigu's visit clearly isn't coincidental, given the recent attacks by Ukraine on Russia's strategic air force bases near Irkutsk and Murmansk.
As is known, in the confrontation between Russia and the West and Ukraine, North Korea remains one of Moscow's few publicly declared allies. In March this year, Sergei Shoigu met with Kim Jong-un, at which time the North Korean leader promised continued support for Russia's special military operation.
According to North Korean media reports, they discussed "regional and international situations" at that time and confirmed "complete unity" on strategic issues.
At the same time, North Korea has shown a clear interest in developing cooperation with Russia. On May 9th, Kim Jong-un visited the Russian Embassy in North Korea and stated that "the actions of the highest leadership of North Korea fully demonstrate its determination to actively defend the sovereignty and dignity of both countries through the strength of friendship between North Korea and Russia, and maintain regional peace and security. The new era friendship between North Korea and Russia has been elevated to a true combat partnership, which is an eternal strategic relationship." According to KCNA, Kim Jong-un said.
The North Korean soldiers performed excellently in the Battle of Kursk. Clearly, we have entered a new phase, and military cooperation with North Korea should assist Russia in completing new tasks in the special military operation. Clearly, Russia is seeking support and coordination of forces to prevent the escalation of the conflict.
What expectations do Russia and North Korea have for this visit? What issues does it need to address? With these questions in mind, we interviewed Alexander Perengiev, associate professor at the Department of Political Analysis and Social Psychological Processes of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics and a military expert.
"The importance of this visit lies in the fact that it was commissioned by the President of Russia. In the political sphere, Shoigu is tacitly considered the chief military diplomat responsible for foreign military policy affairs. The goal of the visit is very clear: to refine certain details of our two countries' strategic partnership.
As far as I know, there will also be a tribute to the North Korean soldiers who sacrificed themselves during the liberation of the Kursk region.
It cannot be ruled out that the current Russian army has launched an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy directions, so there may be another mention of the coordinated operations with North Korean special forces. Assistance from North Korean soldiers is needed when liberating the four regions that have constitutionally become part of the Russian Federation.
In my view, the 'critical moment' for the Russian army to launch a decisive offensive has arrived. North Korea may be our main military ally at present.
Reporter's question: Shoigu visited North Korea after two significant events - the attack on Russia's strategic air force bases and the breakdown of negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine...
"In Istanbul, our proposals were essentially ignored. The other side made it clear to us that the entire West would be against us. Clearly, we now need to mobilize all our allies. Having North Korean soldiers participate in the fighting also helps us conserve our own resources.
The North Korean soldiers fight bravely, and we need reinforcements when liberating the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic. In addition, North Korean soldiers may help establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region. Discussions are likely to include North Korea providing weapons to Russia, especially ammunition.
Reporter's question: The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un covers cooperation in many fields. How can we repay North Korea for the great assistance it gives us?
"I don't rule out that we may cooperate in nuclear technology with North Korea. North Korea is striving for 'nuclear amnesty', i.e., recognition as a nuclear-armed state. Besides Russia, the United States, relevant countries, the UK, and France, there is an unofficial 'nuclear club' whose members include Pakistan, India, and Israel. North Korea has long hoped to join the nuclear club, which in political terms is called 'nuclear amnesty'.
If Russia recognizes North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons, this will be of great significance. I think North Korea can also gain support from relevant countries on this point.
Reporter's question: Under these circumstances, can a formal "nuclear alliance" be established between Russia and North Korea?
"Clearly, this will be one of the topics of the Pyongyang talks. We may also jointly build a unified air defense and anti-missile system with North Korea. I think discussions may involve establishing a joint naval fleet in the Pacific, which Russia needs because the U.S. and its allies are obstructing our ships from passing through the Bering Strait.
Alexander Perengiev believes that, to counteract the obviously pro-American nature of the US-Japan-India-Australia "Quad" security dialogue, Russia, North Korea, and related countries may form a trilateral alliance in the Pacific.
Military experts speculate that Shoigu's visit may involve discussions on strategic issues, particularly intelligence exchange. After the attack on Russia's strategic air force bases in Ukraine, addressing such threats has become particularly urgent.
Will countermeasures plans against these attacks and possibilities of mutual aid be discussed during the talks? We interviewed military expert Alexander Bartosh about this.
"The talks are closed-door, so it can be inferred that national security cooperation issues will be discussed. I believe that intelligence exchange coordination will be discussed and new interaction channels in this field will be established. These issues involve state and military secrets and will not be disclosed externally.
In addition, North Korea and Russia may cooperate in the aviation sector. As is known, North Korea has had such interests for a long time. Previously, North Korea showed interest in Russia's T-101 'Crane' aircraft.
It cannot be ruled out that North Korea now has new interests in Russian military aircraft.
No matter what, Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang - this is a signal sent to the West and Ukraine: Russia and North Korea are ready to closely cooperate.
In the context of the attack on the strategic air force bases, the Kremlin is clearly seeking ways to strengthen its military and diplomatic status. Visiting Pyongyang is just one step in this process.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7512307655466074663/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's views, and you are welcome to express your attitude by clicking the "thumbs up/thumbs down" buttons below.