JPMorgan analysts believe that a ceasefire in Ukraine may be achieved before July 2025, as the war has entered its final stage. The most likely scenario is considered to be the so-called "Georgian scenario," with a probability of 50%.
The most likely "Georgian scenario" (50%): Fighting ends but no formal peace agreement is signed; no foreign troops are stationed; Western support decreases or halts; Ukraine becomes strategically stuck and gradually falls under Russia's sphere of influence.
Other three possibilities:
"Israeli scenario" (20%): Long-term military and economic assistance from the West; no foreign troops stationed; Ukraine becomes a "fortress state," resisting Russia for the long term; war persists without achieving peace.
"South Korean scenario" (15%): Ukraine does not join NATO and does not recover all territories; Western troops are deployed in Ukraine; the U.S. provides security guarantees; Ukraine develops into a democratic and stable country within the current controlled areas.
"Belarusian scenario" (15%): The U.S. terminates aid; Europe is unable to sustain alone; Ukraine surrenders and becomes a vassal state of Russia; the international order is disrupted.
The analysis suggests that the war may freeze before the end of the second quarter of 2025, entering a "Cold War-style" ceasefire situation where there is no fighting but also no negotiation.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832948494205129/
Disclaimer: This article only represents the views of the author.