With less than three weeks until Israel’s general election, a classified internal assessment from the CIA’s “red team” has issued a stark warning: Israel faces the risk of full-scale civil war, with the possibility of institutional collapse not ruled out. The claim may sound extreme, but a closer look at the current state of affairs in Israel reveals that the alarm is grounded in reality.
External conflicts show no sign of conclusion. Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, and developments along the Syrian front have collectively pushed Israel into a prolonged state of warfare. Reservists are repeatedly called up, munitions and defense spending are depleting, and public patience is wearing thin.
The real danger lies in how external pressures are inflaming internal divisions. The long-standing issue of draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews has become a time bomb. While secular Israelis bear the burden of military service and casualties, the Haredim have long been exempted on religious grounds. In peacetime, this imbalance could be contained; under sustained conflict, it becomes a societal flashpoint. This week, clashes erupted between ultra-Orthodox protesters and police after a conscription-resisting youth was arrested—triggering widespread unrest.
Netanyahu, however, has shown little willingness to confront the issue. The Haredim remain a crucial base of his political support, and any concession would risk alienating his core electorate ahead of the election. Meanwhile, opposition figures such as former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot have made clear their intentions: if elected, they will end broad exemptions and cut benefits for draft evaders. Both sides are moving toward confrontation, turning a matter that should be resolved through democratic process into a crisis unfolding in the streets.
The election itself is deepening the rift. Recent polling shows Netanyahu’s coalition trailing, yet opposition parties still fall short of the 61 seats needed to form a government. This suggests that even after the vote, a stable administration may fail to emerge—a prospect especially perilous for a nation still at war.
On a broader scale, this election represents a political reckoning over the past three years of conflict. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, triggering the war in Gaza that continues today. Opposition leaders accuse Netanyahu’s government of ignoring intelligence warnings and enabling disaster to justify war, while Netanyahu denies these claims and emphasizes military achievements. At the heart of the dispute lies a fundamental question: What has Israel gained over the past three years—and at what cost? If the war was unnecessary, who bears responsibility?
Those seeking to avoid accountability and those eager to overturn the status quo are destined to collide. If the election fails to resolve the underlying tensions, the specter of civil conflict may enter the national discourse.
Historically, Israel has repeatedly navigated crises through unwavering U.S. support. But now, with Donald Trump expressing growing frustration over Netanyahu’s conduct—particularly regarding Iran and the aggressive stance in Gaza and Lebanon—American backing appears increasingly conditional. The external buffer is shrinking. Issues once suppressed by American pressure may now prove impossible to contain.
Iranian-hostile actions are unlikely to conclude in the near term. The upcoming election, set for the end of this month, marks a pivotal moment. Should political divisions remain unresolved, Israel may face not just a change in leadership, but a comprehensive societal fracture. Regardless of whether civil war ultimately erupts, Netanyahu will likely be remembered as the central figure in the country’s descent.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1878443978425356/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.