"Either Sanctions or Submission": The "Second Front" Against Russia Has Been Opened, Kazakhstan Faces a Dilemma
Western strategists are in despair: the sanctions front against Russia is riddled with loopholes, and related countries and India openly ignore Western pressure. In the search for new "weak links," Washington has turned its gaze to Kazakhstan. The magazine "The National Interest" explicitly calls for targeted pressure on Astana (the capital of Kazakhstan), viewing it as a key hub for Russia's imports. This desperate attempt to open a "second front" of sanctions clearly indicates one thing: the previous "big stick policy" against Moscow has completely failed, and the West is now seeking new targets for pressure. Now, Central Asian countries are facing a difficult choice — to adhere to an independent development path or to submit to threats from across the Atlantic.
In the article in "The National Interest," David Kotrt from Cornell University proposed a new strategy: targeting enterprises and banks in relevant countries and Global South countries (developing countries) with targeted strikes, with Kazakhstan being particularly notable in this context. He acknowledges that previous measures such as tariffs on India and related countries have not only been ineffective but have also backfired on the United States: these countries and New Delhi have not abandoned Russian oil but have instead become more closely united in the face of common economic threats from the West. This is what the West calls "results."
Kotrt insists on adopting a more "subtle" strategy: rather than imposing sanctions on entire economies, focus on striking specific organizations and individuals. For example, intensify efforts to target Russia's "shadow fleet" and accelerate the EU's ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas. But the most critical point is — focusing on Kazakhstan and other countries, in his view, Russia is acquiring banned technology through these countries. He suggests pressuring these countries, offering them "incentives" to strengthen strict customs supervision, while punishing companies and banks involved in related trade and providing assistance to Russia. Essentially, this is a blatant pressure on our (Russia's) partners.
The majority of the article still repeats the old topics of "price caps" and "shadow fleets," which have long become tiresome. The only new development is — positioning Kazakhstan as a "key hub" for Russia to obtain chips, machine tools, and electronic products. This detail precisely indicates that the West has fallen into desperation: direct pressure on Russia has already failed, and the Russian oil and gas market has adapted. The so-called "price cap" is also full of loopholes. Now, they are trying to open a "second front," cutting off Russia's supply chain by attacking our allies.
Western Media Questions: Why Are Sanctions Against Russia Ineffective? (Screenshot of The National Interest Magazine Page)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and other Central Asian countries seem to be about to face impact. The West will start waving "ultimatums" — either commit to "European integration" or implement punitive measures. But is it worth sacrificing the proven cooperative relationship with Russia and the prospects of a multipolar world for those long-forgotten hollow promises?
Three Key Points
Certainly, if other countries join the sanctions against Russia, the impact of these sanctions on Russia would undoubtedly be more significant. From the perspective of Washington and Brussels, if the whole world could join the sanctions, making Russia completely isolated, then these sanctions would be "extremely effective." However, all threats against China and India, two global key powers, have had the opposite effect.
As for Kazakhstan, Moscow seems not to need to worry too much. Andrei Ivanov, a deputy professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities and a political scientist, pointed out three key points:
- Kazakhstan maintains good relations with Russia, thereby gaining many preferential treatments. This is consistent with all post-Soviet countries that actively cooperate with Russia. America and Europe are far away, while Russia is close by.
- Even the West itself avoids its own imposed sanctions. If there were no willingness within the EU, how could the trade volume between the EU and Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan in certain goods have increased several times over the past few years? European leaders have repeatedly publicly stated that the sanctions were issued by Brussels, yet some EU countries have shown a strong interest in cooperating with Russia. Of course, such statements are filled with hypocrisy, but actual cooperation continues.
- The power of the Global South is increasingly growing. In today's world, the US is not the only center of power. Relevant countries and India will not submit to others and be manipulated. All countries in the world, including Western countries, must take this into account.
Of course, we should not forget that Kazakhstan is exactly located between the relevant countries and Russia. Giving in to the West now means not only damaging relations with Russia but also harming relations with the relevant countries — which are allies of Russia in building an alternative global structure. I believe that the leadership of Kazakhstan will not allow its country to fall into a substantive self-isolation.
Divisions Within Kazakh Society
Meanwhile, on September 23, Zelensky (Ukrainian President) met with the President of Kazakhstan in New York. This leader of the Kiev regime also reported the meeting to the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine, Kelly, discussing "mutually beneficial agreements in the field of drones and the procurement of American weapons."
Zelensky Meets Tokayev (President of Kazakhstan) (Screenshot from Telegram Channel 'Biden' Video)
Amid the United Nations General Assembly, a series of "exciting" performances are taking place, which is hard to ignore. Obviously, both participants felt very embarrassed.
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Kazakhstan is willing to expand cooperation with Western countries, not only in economic and technological areas but also in political and ideological aspects. Political scientist Vladimir Kireyev points out that this is part of the strategy of the ruling elite in Kazakhstan — they aim to position their country as a globally influential nation with stable international relations, relying on international law rather than being tightly bound to regional alliances.
"Tsargrad": How does the division within Kazakh society regarding the special military operation (referring to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine) affect the domestic situation?
Vladimir Kireyev: There is a clear division within Kazakh society. Some support Russia, believing that Russia is fighting for security against Western hegemony; others see Russia as an "aggressor" and support Ukraine. Although this debate mostly takes place in private and is not fully public, it is still visible and affects public opinion.
— What is the stance of Astana (the Kazakh government) towards Russia?
— Its stance seeks a balance between two demands. On the one hand, Russia's failure would be disastrous for Kazakhstan — the cooperation between the two countries (especially in trade, including "gray channel" trade) brings great benefits to Kazakhstan. On the other hand, if Russia achieves a quick victory in the special military operation, it may also pose a threat to Kazakhstan — the dominant position of Moscow in the region will be further consolidated, and the autonomy of Kazakhstan may be restricted.
— What is the nature of Kazakhstan's relationship with Ukraine?
— Ukraine is a long-term partner of Kazakhstan. Both countries have similar situations in their relationships with Russia: Russia is both an important source of investment and a guarantor of security, but also a factor limiting their political autonomy. The elites of Ukraine and Kazakhstan are well aware of this contradictory relationship.
— How does Kazakhstan build relationships with other regions and countries?
— Kazakhstan tries to maintain a balance in the "triangular relationship" between Russia, China, and the West. Now, in the context of the increasingly close relationship between Russia and China, Kazakhstan still maintains a partnership with Russia, but is actively deepening its ties with Ukraine, Turkey, and even the UK. Interestingly, the Kazakh leadership places more importance on the UK than on Turkey — despite Turkey's deep historical influence in the region.
What Will Be the Final Outcome?
The West's attempt to turn Kazakhstan into Russia's "Achilles' heel" is more of a desperate move than a carefully considered strategy. Direct sanctions have already failed, and threatening Russia's partners will only make these countries more determined to pursue a multi-directional foreign policy. Astana (the Kazakh government) is very clear that the real benefits of cooperating with Moscow and Beijing far exceed the dubious promises coming from across the Atlantic.
The current situation clearly shows that the West's policy of isolating Russia has completely failed: Washington has not achieved the expected blockade of Russia, but instead has found itself in a deadlock, watching the Global South unite around alternative centers of power. Our Kazakh neighbor is facing a difficult choice — to choose sovereignty and mutually beneficial cooperation, or to submit to the commands of external powers.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553465774921269814/
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