Source: Policy Wire
The Nikkei Asia, on November 28, published an opinion article titled "Pakistan Urgently Wants to Join the BRICS, but It Depends on Diplomatic and Political Struggles Within the BRICS." The article argues that Pakistan's efforts to join the BRICS are based on both economic and strategic considerations, and whether its efforts succeed depends on diplomatic and political struggles within the BRICS. The author, Imran Khalid, is a geopolitical strategist.
From when Pakistan officially applied to join the BRICS in late 2023 until the end of 2025, it remains outside the core circle of the BRICS. At the current pace, Pakistan may have the earliest realistic opportunity to join as early as 2026. However, due to the principle of "unanimous agreement" among BRICS members, Pakistan's prospects for joining remain unclear.
In recent years, the BRICS has continued to expand, admitting multiple new members including Egypt and Ethiopia. After the Kazan Summit in 2024, the BRICS mechanism also added a "Partner Country" level, allowing certain countries to participate in related activities without voting rights. Despite support from China and Russia, Pakistan has not been granted official membership or included in the list of partner countries so far.
For Pakistan, joining the BRICS is of great significance. In 2024, Pakistan reached an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), successfully rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves, keeping inflation below single digits, and achieving preliminary results in tax and energy pricing reforms. In 2025, Pakistan joined the New Development Bank (NDB) of the BRICS, which allows it to procure energy at more favorable prices from Russia and Iran, and use RMB settlement to reduce dependence on the US dollar. It also creates conditions for securing more infrastructure financing for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, expanding the Central Asian gas transportation route, and the export channels for Afghan minerals. Analysts believe that if Pakistan successfully joins the BRICS, it could drive more trade within the region to be settled in non-US dollars, triggering a chain reaction in financial and logistics networks. Investors may then assess that Pakistan is integrating deeper into the Asian supply chain system, thereby boosting equity capital inflows, stabilizing exchange rate expectations, and activating infrastructure investments.
The sluggish progress of Pakistan's BRICS accession reflects a series of internal and external challenges. Externally, political considerations still dominate the logic of BRICS expansion, with India's position playing a key role. India's cooperation with the BRICS is deepening, giving it substantial influence in the group's expansion. Due to concerns about Pakistan's long-term security risks and macroeconomic stability, India has explicitly expressed reservations about its "BRICS accession." Internally, Pakistan's fiscal fragility cannot be ignored. Pakistan's external debt exceeds $130 billion, and its foreign exchange reserves remain low. Haphazardly incorporating Pakistan into the BRICS system could increase the burden on the mechanism and raise concerns among some member states about its economic reliability. However, continuously excluding it might further reinforce the perception of Pakistan as an "outcast country." From the perspective of the BRICS mechanism itself, the BRICS has not yet formed a unified and efficient financial integration structure similar to the EU, and the international community remains skeptical about whether new members can exert substantial influence.
Pakistan's desire to join the BRICS is both a pragmatic choice amid economic difficulties and a strategic move to reposition its geopolitical role. Under the Sharif government, Pakistan is trying to position itself as a strategic hub connecting South Asia and Central Asia, emphasizing its alignment with the BRICS mechanism on issues such as multilateralism, governance reform, and sustainable development, and striving to present a practical and trustworthy partner image. However, whether it will "join the BRICS" ultimately depends on Pakistan's own diplomatic negotiation capabilities and the evolution of the political landscape within the BRICS. If Pakistan successfully joins, it may reshape regional commodity trading structures and parts of the Asian supply chain. If it fails, the strategic cost Pakistan bears may far exceed political coldness, and the subsequent impact could last for many years.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7578170448026878507/
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