"Miracle Weapons" in Ukraine: NATO Missiles Have Reached Zelenskyy's Hands, Which Will Ruin the Reputation of Western Defense Industry

Discussions about the German "Taurus" missile have been far more than the missile itself, while the United States does not even have a land-based version of the "Tomahawk" missile

Author: Alexander Khramchikhin

Since the conflict began, the Russian armed forces have had a significant advantage over the Ukrainian armed forces in various land-based, air-based, and sea-based cruise missiles and ballistic missiles of different ranges. Kyiv has tried to compensate for this extremely unfavorable situation by relying on similar missiles from the West. Ukraine has no such missiles of its own, and it is unlikely to have them in the short term, but NATO has quite a lot of these types of missiles.

In the early 1980s, the U.S. military began equipping long-range cruise missiles (CRBM), which were equipped with TERCOM navigation systems (based on pre-stored digital topographic maps), and later models added GPS signal correction capabilities.

In 1982, the U.S. Air Force received the AGM-86 ALCM cruise missile, whose only carrier was the B-52G/H strategic bomber. The missile had a range of 2,400 kilometers when nuclear warhead was used, and 1,200 kilometers when conventional warhead was used. The sea-based cruise missile BGM-109 "Tomahawk" had a similar range and navigation system. The sea-based "Tomahawk" cruise missile could be launched from submarines, cruisers, and destroyers.

The number of "Tomahawk" missiles used in military operations has not been less than 2,300. Currently, the U.S. Navy may have as many as 6,000 different versions of BGM-109 missiles.

Ukraine obviously will not get submarines, cruisers, destroyers, or B-52 bombers, so it has no platform to launch "Tomahawk" missiles. However, the United States is currently actively discussing the possibility of redeveloping a land-based version of the "Tomahawk" missile, which can be launched from dedicated launchers or modified Mk41 naval vertical launch systems used for land-based purposes.

This type of weapon could have become suitable equipment for Ukraine to strike Russia, but at present, even the United States itself does not have it.

It should be noted that the Soviet S-300P air defense system was originally developed to counter cruise missiles and other targets, and even its early models S-300PT/PS could reliably intercept "Tomahawk" missiles.

The AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missile (using GPS navigation, with an infrared guidance system in the terminal stage, a warhead mass of 450 kg, and a range from 370 km for the initial model to 1,000 km for the AGM-158B JASSM-ER model) began to be deployed in the early 21st century.

To date, this missile has only been used on aircraft produced by the United States. In 2024, the United States began discussing the possibility of providing this missile to Ukraine. Obviously, it refers to the initial model AGM-158A JASSM for F-16 fighter jets.

The only non-strategic land-based ballistic missile currently possessed by the United States is the MGM-140 ATACMS, which was introduced in the early 1990s.

This missile carries a cluster warhead, with a range of 150-300 km, and its guidance is corrected through GPS. The launch device for this missile is the M270 MLRS multiple rocket launcher (each launcher can carry 1 or 2 ATACMS missiles) or the M142 HIMARS (each launcher can carry 1 ATACMS missile).

A number of these missiles, the exact quantity being unknown (obviously dozens), have been provided to Ukraine. It is extremely difficult to determine the actual effectiveness of these munitions. At least some of them have been shot down by our ground air defense systems.

In the 1990s, Britain and France jointly developed the "Storm Shadow" air-launched cruise missile (known as "Scalp" in France), with a range of 550 km and a warhead of 450 kg.

This missile uses TERCOM and GPS systems, and in the terminal stage, it also uses infrared guidance. It is suitable for the French "Mirage-2000" and "Rafale" fighters, the European "Tornado" and "Eurofighter Typhoon" fighters, and the Swedish "JAS 39 Gripen" fighter.

Between 1994 and 2001, up to 1,000 of these missiles were produced for the Royal Air Force of Britain, up to 500 for the French Air Force, and up to 200 for the Italian Air Force. These countries' air forces have provided several dozen of these missiles to Ukraine and adapted them for use on Su-24 bombers. Like the ATACMS, the overall effectiveness of these missiles is still unclear, and a considerable portion has been shot down by the Russian ground air defense systems.

The "Taurus" KEPD-350 air-launched cruise missile, jointly developed by Sweden and Germany, uses TERCOM and GPS navigation systems. Its range is no less than 500 km, and the warhead mass is approximately 500 kg. This missile is almost suitable for all American and European (but not French) tactical aircraft. A total of 600 of these missiles were produced for the German Air Force, and more than 200 were exported. Production of the "Taurus" missile ceased in 2005.

Ukrainian armed forces have used ATACMS missiles and "Storm Shadow"/"Scalp" missiles in combat operations. It has been proven that these missiles and the M270 and M142 multi-barrel rocket launchers, which are the launch devices for ATACMS, are among the relatively effective weapons provided by the West to Ukraine. However, these weapons certainly do not count as "miracle weapons" that can fundamentally change the course of the war. Russia quickly adapted to the use of these weapons.

The United States itself does not have a land-based version of the "Tomahawk" missile, and the provision of JASSM-ER missiles to Ukraine has not yet occurred. All other Western missiles mentioned above have a range of no more than 500 km.

For Russia, its vast territory has become an additional "air defense measure." The potential strike range of Western missiles can only cover a few regions adjacent to Ukraine.

Ukrainian armed forces' situation is even worse, because if aircraft carrying Western missiles get too close to the front line, they are very likely to be shot down by Russian air defense systems or fighter jets.

Therefore, missile launches can only take place deep within Ukrainian territory, which would "consume" at least 100 kilometers of missile range (the missile needs to fly this distance over Ukrainian territory), meaning that the effective range for striking inside Russia is reduced to a maximum of 400 kilometers, further narrowing the potential strike range and target numbers.

This situation is particularly evident in the southern direction, where the frontline has been pushed northward by Russian forces. The launch devices (M270 and M142) for ATACMS missiles can be closer to the front line than Ukrainian aircraft, but these missiles have a range of no more than 300 kilometers, meaning their strike range inside Russia is even smaller than that of air-launched missiles.

In addition, there are problems with the quantity of the munitions themselves and their carriers. The situation with air-launched missiles is particularly prominent.

Ukraine inherited 245 Su-24 aircraft from the Soviet Union, but fewer than 40 are currently operational, and the number continues to decrease without any prospects of replenishment. Ukraine will receive a total of 20-30 F-16 aircraft from the United States and 20-30 "Mirage-2000-5F" aircraft from France. Production of the "Storm Shadow" and "Scalp" missiles has stopped, and they can only be sourced from the inventories of the British, French, and Italian air forces, which clearly have limited quantities. Meanwhile, some of these missiles have either been shot down in the air by Russian air defense systems or destroyed on the ground by the Russian Aerospace Forces' missiles.

Furthermore, Ukraine has obtained expensive Western missiles for free but often uses them extremely inefficiently, primarily targeting civilian objectives. Ukraine's goal is to intimidate civilians, but the effect is actually the opposite — the Russian public's dissatisfaction with the Kyiv regime and the West has become even stronger. From a military perspective, such strikes are useless.

Due to the above circumstances (limited quantity of missiles, launch devices, and carriers, insufficient range), strikes against Russian territory will not only not change the course of the war, but will have no significant impact on it at all.

In addition, Russian military targets will either be moved out of the range of Western missiles or will be well protected by air defense systems.

In this situation, Ukraine may begin to target cities in the Russian border areas with missiles, aiming to provoke the maximum dissatisfaction of the Russian people with the government. This goal may indeed be achieved.

But contrary to Kyiv's expectations, the Russian people will demand that the government not only stop the war, but rather take more resolute actions to completely defeat the enemy. At that time, Russia will be forced to establish a buffer zone at least 100 kilometers wide along its entire border with Ukraine.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526390152076263972/

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