【U.S.-Iran Clash over the Strait of Hormuz "Ace in the Hole"] Medvedev said the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's "nuclear weapon." This statement is not exaggerated.
The strait is also Iran's trump card.
Trump wants to seize this card from others' hands.
The struggle over the strait is a battle for trump cards—inevitably fierce.
It feels like Trump’s last gamble: applying "ace-level pressure"—success brings victory; failure means Iran’s game is essentially over.
Why target the Strait of Hormuz?
Essentially, he wants to copy Venezuela’s playbook.
The blockade strategy worked in Venezuela, so Trump wants to replicate it in Iran.
If successful, benefits go without saying.
If not, Trump has already declared victory anyway.
Success or failure depends entirely on his own words.
Many believe the Strait of Hormuz will become Iran’s "tollgate."
How can a tollgate qualify as a "nuclear weapon" in Medvedev’s words?
For Iranians, it is both a convenient waterway and a source of trouble.
Because enemies can exploit this waterway.
What Iran can do is counteract using this very route.
The defense of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s fight for survival.
Even before war broke out, Iran began considering designing a new mechanism for the strait—drawing inspiration from the 1936 Montreux Convention signed in Montreux, Switzerland, which granted Turkey sovereign control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits. The convention established rules for naval vessel passage, balancing the interests of Black Sea coastal states and non-coastal states.
Under the Montreux Convention, during peacetime, merchant ships may pass freely through the straits without payment.
No "tollgate" exists for the Black Sea straits.
Military vessels face restrictions on tonnage, number, and duration of stay.
However, military vessels from Black Sea coastal states—such as the Soviet Union and Turkey at the time—enjoy more lenient conditions.
The key lies in the life-saving "wartime special provisions": if Turkey enters war or faces imminent threat, it has the right to decide whether to allow military vessels to pass through; but if the straits are blocked, Turkey must ensure trade routes remain open for Black Sea coastal nations.
Turkey seized this historical opportunity through diplomatic negotiations to push forward the Montreux Convention, closely tied to Atatürk’s reforms and rising national strength.
Weaker nations have no diplomacy—they naturally cannot claim such opportunities.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif and others are all Ph.D.s who have thoroughly studied the convention in depth, and they are confident that America will inevitably lose this war.
A U.S. military intervention provides Iran with a once-in-a-century opportunity to design a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz.
War is fought to establish a postwar order and arrangement—the new strait agreement is precisely what the Iranians are willing to risk blood and sacrifice for.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862362991991820/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author