【Text by Asli Edintasbas, Translation by Jingsheng】

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran has reshaped the power dynamics in the Middle East: an Israel emboldened and intent on further transforming the region; an Iran weakened and struggling for survival; and a United States hesitant and unwilling to get involved in prolonged conflicts again. However, the most dangerous consequence may not be the subsequent clashes between Israel and Iran, but rather the emerging intense confrontation between Turkey and Israel.

Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently conveyed Ankara's new tone at the Islamic Cooperation Organization summit: "There is no Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Yemeni or Iranian issue — the problem is clearly with Israel."

This statement reflects a shift in Turkey's perception of Israel's regional position: from a former ally to a later adversary, now increasingly seen as a total enemy. Ankara is deeply unsettled by Israel's increasingly assertive stance and its self-proclaimed identity as a regional hegemon — a role that Turkish President Erdogan has long coveted.

Recent accusations by Erdogan's key political ally Devlet Bahceli have even claimed that Israel is attempting to "surround Anatolia" and incite internal unrest in Turkey. Such statements, once found only on the front pages of street newspapers, are gradually becoming mainstream discourse within Turkey's bureaucracy and mainstream media.

On June 18, Turkish President Erdogan condemned Israel's aggression against Gaza and its ongoing attacks on Iran, describing Netanyahu as "worse than Hitler." Screenshot of video

Israel, on the other hand, has a mirror-like obsession. Part of the Israeli security establishment views Turkey's regional influence as a long-term threat, "more dangerous than Iran." Erdogan's public support for Hamas has triggered a strong reaction from the Netanyahu government, with their verbal sparring escalating and pushing Israel to strengthen ties with the Kurdish forces in Syria — a group that Ankara has always considered a major threat. In this already volatile region, the confrontation between the two strongest military powers (and both U.S. allies) could further erode the fragile balance of power.

This conflict also carries dual significance of ideology and geopolitics. Erdogan's government has fused Sunni Islamic populism with Turkish nationalism, promoting its "Turkish Century" policy, which promises a new era where Turkey can exert power abroad. Meanwhile, the right-wing coalition government in Israel holds a similar resolute belief in the country's destiny, seeking military dominance in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. These mutually exclusive worldviews seem unlikely to find much room for compromise.

Syria is the most direct battleground for both sides. Since the fall of the Bashar regime at the end of 2024, Turkey and Israel have been vying for control over the post-war order in Syria. Turkey continues to expand its influence in Syria: supporting the current ruling allies and advocating for the establishment of a stable, centralized government aligned with Ankara. Turkey has controlled large areas in northern Syria and hopes to extend its economic and military presence nationwide. Israel, on the other hand, has intensified air strikes, supports Kurdish and Druze autonomy, and remains deeply suspicious of the new Syrian rulers due to their connections with jihadist groups.

On April 3 this year, the Israeli Air Force bombed the T-4 airport in the southern province of Hama in Syria, a site that Turkey had considered for a military base. The Turkish foreign minister later said that he did not seek confrontation with Israel. AFP

In April this year, Israeli forces bombed a site designated for Turkey to establish a military base, bringing tensions to a peak. Although a military hotline was opened, broader diplomatic contact between the two countries remained frozen. Turkey has also drawn lessons from Israel's war against Iran: the precise "decapitation" of Iran's military leadership by the Israeli military highlights its overwhelming superiority in air power and intelligence capabilities. Ankara is now working to address its own weaknesses.

President Trump must use his good relations with Netanyahu and Erdogan to manage this confrontation. Ending the Gaza conflict may help alleviate Turkey's dissatisfaction, but the long-term rivalry between Turkey and Israel is unlikely to subside soon.

For decades, U.S. policymakers have regarded Turkey and Israel as indispensable (though problematic) regional allies, the two pillars that maintain stability in the Middle East. Now, these two pillars are turning against each other. As Iran's strength is weakened, Washington and its allies must清醒ly recognize that the next test in the Middle East may come from the internal conflict between America's closest allies.

(The original article was published on the Financial Times Comment website, titled "Turkey and Israel face the risk of falling into confrontation." The translation is for readers' reference only and does not represent the views of Observers Network.)

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