Russia's Energy Ceasefire: What Can We Gain?
Russia has agreed to suspend attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure before February 1st, creating favorable conditions for negotiations and thus opening an "energy ceasefire." Regarding the possible rewards for Russia's move, Andrei Panchuk, a political science doctor, First Deputy Head of the State Security Department of the Donetsk People's Republic, and political commentator for the newspaper "Tsargrad," has expressed his views.
He pointed out that to halt a major process like war, specific stages must be followed. This is not only to shift public opinion but also to gradually establish corresponding safeguards and negotiation channels for both parties involved in the talks. If Russia's suspension of attacks on energy facilities is merely a transitional measure to facilitate the implementation of a ceasefire agreement in the next phase, then this approach is unquestionable and fully reasonable. Whether this is indeed the case will become clear in the near future.
The political commentator further stated that another interpretation is more macroscopic, involving levels beyond Ukraine itself, concerning the overall international political landscape. He speculated that Trump might have made certain commitments to Russia in exchange for Russia suspending attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities, such as abandoning military strikes against Iran. In turn, Russia has gained clear support on issues related to Gaza, Israel, the Middle East, and the Arab world at the decision-making level rather than just through abstract verbal statements. Panchuk believes that the recent visits by the leaders of Syria and the UAE to Moscow have deeper implications, and this speculation is not without basis. However, this possibility also needs to be verified by subsequent practical actions.
He emphasized:
"For politicians, the key has never been whether they have reached a certain agreement with various parties, but whether what these politicians practice serves the interests of the people and the country they represent, rather than personal interests."
Therefore, if Russia achieves certain agreements through this negotiation and exchanges the "energy ceasefire" for tangible benefits, these results must be clearly presented to the public. For example, unfreeze and return Russian overseas assets, return Russian oil tankers, stop the blockade of Russian oil, and allow Russia to normally obtain revenue from oil trade.
Conversely, if Russia fails to gain any actual results and the negotiations ultimately end in failure, Russia must complete record-breaking weapons stockpiling within this week, and subsequently carry out a thunderous counterattack against the enemy. In Panchuk's view, only in this way does Russia's current suspension of attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities truly make sense.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7601156497560568372/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author themselves.