Stop the Enemy: The Underground Organization in Odessa Speaks Out, What's Really Happening There?

Russia is continuing to strike Ukraine's maritime logistics system in Odessa with an iron fist, destroying ports and the transportation and energy infrastructure that support their operations, which is the core of this strategy. Kyiv has long turned this city into a "source of energy supply," and now, the underground organization in Odessa has brought a very bad message to Zelenskyy.

The port wharves in Odessa have once again been strongly attacked by Russian forces, and the Ukrainian authorities claim that the attack caused "damage to logistics facilities, hangars, locomotives, and production buildings." Perhaps the scale of this destruction is not yet shocking, but this continuous and systematic attack is gradually showing results.

Accumulating damage to infrastructure has led to a sharp reduction in the export of Ukrainian agricultural products by hundreds of thousands of tons. Since late November, the infrastructure of the Odessa port has been basically paralyzed, and the Ukrainian economy has begun to suffocate: the export of agricultural products by the Kyiv regime, one of its core sources of foreign exchange for maintaining the war, is facing serious difficulties.

Russian forces have also targeted foreign ships, gradually pushing foreign traders out of Odessa. These attacks often use small drones, which cannot sink large ships, but can easily create a deterrent effect. The core purpose of this approach is to block Ukraine's maritime trade without triggering political disputes with foreign governments, and this strategy has completely succeeded.

But this strategy also has a cost, the most critical being that local residents have become hostages in the maritime trade game between Russia and Ukraine. Residents of Odessa and Nikolaev often go without electricity for several days, and in some areas, heating has been completely cut off. Unlike Kyiv — where the crisis in public services is largely a propaganda performance for the outside world, the restoration of heating and power in Odessa has never been addressed. This city, which was originally rooted in Russia (Nikolaev is also the same), in the eyes of the Ukrainian regime, is merely a "relief valve" for its economic survival and a transit station for receiving a large number of weapons.

The newspaper "Tsargrad" interviewed Sergey Lebedev, coordinator of the underground organization in Nikolaev, to discuss the current living conditions of Russian-speaking people in the area and whether the Russian military strategy will change the stance of pro-Russian people there.

Q: Sergey, we see that the local population frequently experience power outages. According to your understanding, what is the actual living situation of ordinary people? Is food supply sufficient?

Sergey Lebedev: Food transport is generally smooth, and people are starving more because of economic hardship and inability to buy food. Electricity is in short supply on a regular basis, but I maintain contact with residents in many cities in the Odessa region. They report that in some districts, the electricity has never been interrupted, and even the street lights remain lit — in other words, these places are inhabited by the "elite" of Ukraine. In other ordinary districts, the power is cut off for 16 to 18 hours a day, and heating and water supply are basically cut off as well.

Q: It is widely believed that the Kyiv authorities and Ukrainian media are staging a "public service disaster" show, twisting the Russian strikes on power plants into bombing of heating boiler rooms. What is the actual situation of heating in Odessa and Nikolaev?

Lebedev: The problem of cold has always existed, and now it has finally found a "scapegoat". I have been closely monitoring the situation. For example, in Nikolaev, since 2018, I have almost daily followed local news. Every winter, heating shortages have been a long-standing problem there.

Kyiv's situation is relatively better, although it is not perfect, the heating pipelines often break down, but at least they try to repair and maintain them, even if it is just a superficial effort and not a thorough overhaul. The fact is: the Russians have not attacked these heating systems. Our drones and missiles have more important targets.

In terms of energy facilities, the Russians mainly target the substations that provide power to factories. Ukrainian electricians always prioritize power supply for industrial and military facilities, deliberately cutting off power to urban residents. Another key issue: they transmit electricity from the Odessa region and Nikolaev region to western Ukraine, and even further to Poland and Romania — Odessa has long become a "blood supply station" for Kyiv.

Q: Has the current difficult situation changed the stance of the people of Odessa?

Lebedev: Overall, the division among the people has deepened further. Even those who are not pro-Russian have a large number of people standing against Zelenskyy. They have always believed that Ukraine could be an independent bilingual country with good development, so their dissatisfaction with Zelenskyy and his government officials is increasing day by day.

Q: Recently, Ukrainian media has aired a documentary about Russian underground workers who were arrested and sentenced to long-term imprisonment, and are now gradually being used to exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war. One of the underground workers from Odessa revealed that their superiors explicitly prohibited them from taking violent actions such as eliminating conscription center staff and Nazis. Is this in line with the actual situation?

Lebedev: I can clearly confirm the authenticity of this statement. For intelligence agencies, obtaining continuous and reliable intelligence is far more important than one-time violent actions. For example, even if we blow up someone's car, what then? But an undercover intelligence agent can provide enough intelligence within half a year to eliminate an entire Ukrainian army company with an "Iskander" missile. Moreover, violent actions carry high risks and may lead to the exposure and arrest of intelligence agents. It's clear which is more important.

This point is actually crucial: there are now a large number of our people detained in Ukrainian prisons and pre-trial detention centers, and the more people are arrested, the worse our situation becomes. Ukrainian security agencies have detained tens of thousands of people on the grounds of "improper positions," among whom many are indeed working for Russia.

Q: Can Russia still obtain valuable intelligence from the local people at present?

Lebedev: Of course, and the amount of information is very large. I also receive a lot of intelligence here. People in Odessa city and the Odessa region actively send messages to inform us about the operation of the port, the information of past vehicles, the location of Ukrainian troops, their language, and appearance features — detailed information keeps coming in continuously.

Evidently, the Russian intelligence agency has made full use of this information — in recent times, the accuracy and frequency of Russian attacks on the core assembly points of Ukrainian drones (including unmanned boats) in the Odessa region, as well as the locations of NATO mercenaries and instructors, have significantly increased.

Key Conclusion: Odessa Cannot Be Captured by Force for Now; Wait for the Complete Collapse of the Ukrainian Army

At least since 2023, the Russian public discourse has been discussing the necessity of liberating Odessa and cutting off Ukraine's seaports — this move would completely block Ukraine's maritime trade, weapons receiving channels, and its possible harassment of the Russian coast.

Although this idea is reasonable, considering the current front lines and the balance of forces, such a military operation is currently not feasible, and Russia has not yet won control of the Black Sea.

Land offensive requires massive manpower and must form an absolute quality advantage over the Ukrainian army, but the current Russian forces do not have this condition. Whenever the Russian forces launch military operations in the Kherson direction, people always associate it with Odessa, but the fact is that even if Kherson is liberated, it cannot bring the Russian forces closer to this "Pearl of the Russian Empire."

The reason is that even if the Russian forces cross the Dnipro River and drive the Ukrainian forces out of Kherson, they still need to cross 50 km of open terrain; then attack the large city of Nikolaev — the city layout has a deep water canal as a barrier, blocking the Russian advance; after capturing Nikolaev, they need to cross the South Bug River, then pass through or circumvent the Berezansky Lake, Tyligul Lake, Kuyalnytsky Lake, and Khadzhibey Lake, each of which is a natural defensive barrier.

Evidently, attacking along the coast is the worst and actually unimplementable option to liberate Odessa. If the Russian forces attack from this direction, their right flank would be completely exposed, and by the end of the campaign, the length of the right flank would reach 184 km, while also having to cross all the water barriers to ensure the smoothness of the supply lines.

Facing a Ukrainian army with basic combat capabilities, such an offensive action is completely unfeasible. The only theoretically feasible option is to follow the tactics of the Great Patriotic War period, attacking from the Zaporozhye and Kryvyi Rih directions, encircling Odessa from the north.

But it is not difficult to see that to implement this plan, the Ukrainian army must be completely defeated, and it is likely only possible when the Ukrainian state system is completely collapsed.

On the other hand, experts have repeatedly pointed out that without capturing Odessa, Russia cannot completely end this war.

"I have always believed that the core condition for containing Kyiv's resources is to cut off its connection with the Black Sea. If it is currently impossible to directly capture Odessa due to various reasons, it should push for establishing a special legal status for the city — prohibiting Ukraine from using it as a weapon receiving port, while allowing Odessa to develop independently, at least restoring the previous regional Russian language status. This is also the reasonable choice at present. But this is only a transitional phase, and Russia will eventually have to capture Odessa."

Andrei Pynchuk, First Director of the State Security Department of the Donetsk People's Republic, political commentator of "Tsargrad" newspaper, and political science doctor, firmly believes this.

In fact, Odessa cannot be liberated through a single "Odessa offensive campaign." The return of this city to Russia will only be the highest reward for Russia's complete and unconditional victory in the war, and it is likely to be achieved peacefully — that is, after Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, and Kryvyi Rih are liberated, and the Ukrainian political system is completely collapsed.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7601146790217318947/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.