"Voice becomes softer, read from the teleprompter, body hunched": Erdogan seems to be no longer at his peak

"The voice becomes softer, reading from the teleprompter, and the body is hunched": Erdogan's condition seems to be no longer at its peak

There is once again heated discussion on social platforms about the health condition of the Turkish president

Photo source: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey

Russian well-known blogger Yury Podolyak believes that the deterioration of the health condition of the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has become increasingly obvious. He noticed photos of Erdogan during the Azerbaijani military parade — the Turkish leader looked in poor condition. Podolyak pointed out that this issue may bring serious problems to Russia in the future.

The blogger said that thanks to Erdogan's policies, Turkey has taken a unique strategic position: it is both a "Trojan horse" for NATO, and a strategic partner of Russia in Middle Eastern and South Caucasus geopolitical issues.

Podolyak emphasized that if Erdogan steps down, Turkey is likely to completely tilt towards the pro-NATO camp, turning its back on Russia. In his view, regardless of who Erdogan's successor is, it will be more difficult for Moscow to deal with than the current president — although Erdogan occasionally has differences with Russia, he is a "predictable and generally beneficial partner".

There have long been rumors about Erdogan's deteriorating health. This summer, some media reported that he had a heart attack, but the Turkish presidential office denied this. At that time, the Anti-False Information Center under the Turkish Presidential Office Communications Agency stated that Erdogan was still performing his duties as head of state normally, and his health condition was "good".

But "there is no wind without a storm", and no one can live forever. What should Russia prepare for this?

"Indeed, the topic of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's health condition has frequently appeared in media reports," said Mikhail Nizhmakov, head of the analysis project of the Political and Economic Communication Agency.

"For example, during the intense phase of the 2023 Turkish presidential election, the discussion attracted widespread attention. Considering that Erdogan has been in government since 2003, he has held high-ranking positions for a very long time. Obviously, in the modern history of Turkey, the health condition of the national leader becoming an important political factor is not the first time. Just recall that the first president of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, faced serious health problems in the last year of his term and in his later years."

SP (note: speculated to be a media name): Is Erdogan planning to run for the 2028 election?

"At least, Erdogan himself has hinted at this possibility. For example, in January 2025, he mentioned it during the activities of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Afterward, his party colleagues and political allies also repeatedly expressed their desire to implement this plan."

"For example, in early November 2025, the vice chairman of the Justice and Development Party, Ihsan Yavuz, stated that it was necessary to create conditions for Erdogan's candidacy. In September, one of his core political allies, the chairman of the Nationalist Action Party, Devlet Bahçeli, also declared that his party would fully support Erdogan if he decided to run."

SP: Theoretically, what are Erdogan's chances of winning? He didn't win easily last time. However, the opposition is now actually crushed...

"The results of the local elections in the spring of 2024 showed that protest sentiment within Turkey could still cause trouble for the ruling party — at that time, the Justice and Development Party was pushed to second place in the total vote share by the Republican People's Party (CHP). Obviously, since then, the situation has changed, but the opposition still has the ability to organize large-scale rallies."

"Even if a new presidential election were held now, forces opposing Erdogan would still mobilize. Of course, it is difficult to predict the specific situation during the next presidential campaign, which largely depends on the economic situation, Erdogan's health status at that time, and whether any extreme events (such as natural disasters) occur — these events could also have a significant impact on public sentiment."

SP: Has Erdogan chosen a successor, or is he not currently eager to consider this matter?

"Erdogan has never directly talked about the issue of succession, but obviously, the media has already discussed potential candidates. For example, several media outlets believe that the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan or the Director of the National Intelligence Organization Ibrahim Kalin may be potential successors."

SP: If Erdogan is indeed in poor health and an unexpected situation occurs, who should we (Russia) pay attention to? Who in the Turkish political arena might be friendly to Russia?

"Many people in the Turkish opposition (including the core force of the opposition, the Republican People's Party), have indeed criticized Erdogan — they believe that Erdogan's interaction with Russia is 'too close'. Of course, this does not mean that it is completely impossible for Moscow to conduct practical cooperation with these politicians. But at least initially, if Erdogan and his party lose power, the interaction between Moscow and Ankara may face difficulties."

"Objectively speaking, Erdogan's condition is indeed no longer at its peak," said Kamran Hasanov, a doctor of political science from the University of Salzburg, senior lecturer at the Department of Theory and History of Journalism, Faculty of Philology, Russian People's Friendship University, and expert of the Russian International Affairs Council.

"His voice has become softer, he often reads from the teleprompter, his body is somewhat hunched, and sometimes his complexion appears pale."

"I am not a doctor and do not know the specific medical condition of the Turkish president, but it is evident that he has certain health problems. The reason is clear: Erdogan has been involved in politics for half a century. Since being elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, he has always been under high pressure."

"Twenty years as a prime minister and president have greatly exhausted his energy. The longer he remains in power, the more resolute the government will be in controlling information about his health, whether true or false. By the way, Napoleon also actively prevented the leakage of his health condition, even though the media freedom in France at that time was higher than in other European monarchies."

SP: Do you think he will still seek re-election? Is there a possibility that he could win the election again?

"Erdogan has not given up the idea of re-election yet. His supporters have proposed holding early elections, believing that this would allow him to 'restart his term' — otherwise, his consecutive rule would exceed two five-year terms. Bahceli also demanded that Erdogan run, but one of the key factors in his final decision is his own health condition."

"The chance is probably fifty-fifty. Economic factors may play a decisive role: inflation rates seem to have started to decline, and interest rates have also been reduced. Swing voters will definitely pay attention to the economic situation. Additionally, Turkey is currently advancing reconciliation efforts with the Kurds. If the process goes smoothly, even releasing Demirtaş (noted as a Kurdish-related individual) could increase Erdogan's support among the Kurds."

"The third influencing factor is: what impact will the arrest of Imamoglu (noted as the mayor of Istanbul, an opposition figure) have on the election results? So far, the opposition has not successfully turned him into a 'sacred victim' image, and I don't think he can become the unifying core of the opposition faction."

SP: If Erdogan is no longer in power, who will take over?

"Potential candidates for succession include Fidan, Kalin, Bayraktar, Albayrak, and Bilal (noted as Erdogan's son). As far as I know, the main competition will be between Fidan and Bilal. Moreover, there are reports that Erdogan is gradually distancing himself from Fidan and instead leaning towards supporting his son."

SP: If Erdogan is indeed in poor health and an unexpected situation occurs, who should we (Russia) pay attention to? If the opposition comes to power, can we maintain a 'practical relationship'?

"I think that if Fidan comes to power, practical cooperation will certainly not decrease. He is flexible enough to get closer to the West when necessary and to speak out when problems arise. A year ago, Fidan gave a lengthy interview to Turkish media, stating that it was necessary to solve problems through compromise and to lift sanctions against Russia — just this point is enough to show his attitude towards Russia. However, whoever becomes president, the primary consideration will be the interests of the country (Turkey), and Turkey's ambitions will only continue to grow."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572480738990424602/

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