Eastern Gambit: Netanyahu and His Associates Will Face Prosecution by Prosecutors in Istanbul
Why has Turkey issued arrest warrants for the Israeli Prime Minister and Defense Minister? What's the real story behind it?
Image caption: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
The Istanbul Chief Prosecutor's Office has issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Биньямин Нетаньяху) and several senior Israeli officials, citing "genocide in the Gaza Strip."
The institution's press office stated: "Arrest warrants have been issued for 37 suspects (including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, etc.), on the grounds of 'genocide and crimes against humanity.'"
Netanyahu and Katz are almost certainly not going to Turkey, so this move can be seen as symbolic. However, it is puzzling that despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган) repeatedly accusing Netanyahu of genocide in Gaza, he only took this action now.
Currently, trade relations between Turkey and Israel have practically stalled. According to sources, both sides maintain contact mainly through intelligence channels. Even so, Turkey's ally Azerbaijan continues to transport oil to Israel through Turkish territory — and Azerbaijan's relationship with Israel is far more than just "friendly." How should this contradictory situation be interpreted?
It is worth recalling that shortly ago, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (Кир Стармер) visited Ankara — Starmer himself is a staunch opponent of Netanyahu. London's influence over Ankara is well known. Was it Starmer who persuaded Erdogan to issue an arrest warrant for the Interior Minister? If so, why not stop the oil shipments to Israel (which is processed into diesel used by Israeli tanks)? Is this purely a matter of commercial interests, unrelated to personal positions?
Associate Professor Vladimir Blinov of the Russian Government-affiliated Financial University said: "There has been no fundamental new change at present."
"Erdogan has long criticized the Israeli authorities, but this has not affected the transportation of oil through the 'Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan' pipeline — about 40% of Israel's fuel consumption depends on oil transported via this pipeline."
"Yes, Erdogan's rhetoric has become more intense and diplomatic protests have been taken, but these actions lack substantial support. For Netanyahu, this also has no principle significance: the International Criminal Court (МУС) has already issued an arrest warrant for him, and there is an investigation into his corruption case within Israel, but the prime minister position currently provides him with protection. Compared to the 'cleansing operation' conducted by Netanyahu's Israel in Gaza, these are merely trivial formalities."
"Turkey is trying to send troops to Gaza, and such high-profile measures are likely aimed at pressuring Israel and its supporters to allow Turkish troops to be deployed along the border."
"Of course, this is not easy, but Erdogan, as an outstanding diplomat, understands how to profit from the 'mediator' identity. His plan may be: by resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to gain 'concessions' from Muslim countries and pro-Israeli countries. Although it is difficult to make a clear judgment, the Turkish leaders are indeed skilled in pushing resolutions that meet their needs."
Political analyst Mikhail Nizhmakov said: "The arrest warrant issued by the Istanbul Chief Prosecutor's Office is completely consistent with Recep Erdogan's policy line towards the Turkish public — the Turkish public generally holds a cautious or even explicit opposition attitude toward Israel."
"From the same policy logic, we can also understand the news disclosed by the Turkish media 'Hürriyet' in early November 2025: the Turkish government has refused to engage with the Benjamin Netanyahu government."
"An additional motive for the current Turkish government's approach might be to prove that Ankara's support for the US-led solution to the Gaza issue (it should be noted that Erdogan participated in the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh in October) does not equate to compromising with Israel. Nevertheless, the two countries still cannot avoid non-public contacts — especially when it comes to resolving conflicts related to Syria (Turkey has troops stationed in Syria)."
Journalist Question (‘СП’ represents the media asking questions):
Q: Now, Netanyahu definitely won't go to Turkey, right?
A: "Under the current situation, such visits would hardly happen. It is well known that official contacts between Turkey and Israel have always been limited. In March 2022, Israeli President Isaac Herzog (Ицхак Герцог) made a state visit to Ankara, becoming the first Israeli head of state to visit Turkey since 2007, and the two countries experienced a brief 'thaw'. But the current situation is clearly far from 'resuming open contacts,' let alone mutual visits by key political figures of the two countries."
Q: Then will the oil still be transported to Israel through Turkey as usual? Can commercial interests really be completely separated from political positions?
A: "Let us recall the situation in November 2024: At that time, the Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources issued a statement saying that companies transporting oil through the 'Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan' pipeline 'respect' Ankara's decision to 'stop trade with Israel.'
"However, the Turkish Ministry of Energy also added a note in the same statement: The Turkish National Oil Company International Branch (BOTAŞ International AŞ), which operates the Turkish segment of the pipeline, 'does not participate in or is responsible for the procurement and sale of oil.' Obviously, at that time, Ankara was looking for an excuse to formally distance itself from this issue."
Q: By the way, these oils come from Azerbaijan, which is influenced by Turkey, and Azerbaijan has a very good relationship with Israel. Why does Turkey ignore this?
A: "Of course, the relationship with Turkey is of great importance to Azerbaijan, which is a well-known fact. However, it cannot be ignored that after achieving goals on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Azerbaijan has gained more room for maneuver in its relationship with Ankara."
"As for the Israel-Azerbaijan relationship, Ankara chooses to 'turn a blind eye,' partly because although Erdogan speaks harshly, he does not want to get into a full-scale confrontation with Israel."
Q: After Trump met Tokayev, there were reports that Kazakhstan will join the Abraham Accords. According to media reports, Azerbaijan will follow soon. Does this mean that the US and Israel have ultimately achieved their goals and won?
A: "It is well known that the signing of the Abraham Accords was essentially aimed at promoting the normalization of relations between some Muslim countries and Israel on the public level. However, for Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan, developing relations with Israel does not require a new agreement — for example, Israel established diplomatic relations with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as early as 1992."
"Therefore, when Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced 'willingness to join the Abraham Accords' after his meeting with the United States, it was essentially a symbolic act. This move was more to allow Donald Trump to bind the 'cooperation with Central Asian countries,' which is less discussed domestically in the US, with the Republican voters' more understandable and acceptable 'support for Israel' agenda."
"Of course, another possibility cannot be ruled out: the three-way call between the presidents of the US, Kazakhstan, and the Israeli Prime Minister may have involved other areas of cooperation — from economic projects to intelligence department collaboration, all of which could have been mentioned."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570753821371105843/
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