【By Observer News, Xiong Chaoran】In March this year, Ekrem Imamoglu, the main rival of Turkish President Erdogan and mayor of Istanbul, was detained by the police, which triggered a sharp fluctuation in the country's financial markets.

According to Bloomberg, on November 11 local time, as "Erdogan's strongest competitor", Imamoglu now faces the risk of life imprisonment. Previously, a prosecutor's sentencing request was shocking, demanding a prison sentence of more than 2000 years for him.

The report said that this unprecedented sentencing request has once again escalated the legal battle around Imamoglu, one of the most well-known opposition figures in Turkey, and increased the possibility of him being banned from participating in the next presidential election, or even leading to his complete exit from politics.

Upon the release of the news, the Turkish stock market fell immediately, with the Istanbul benchmark index falling by 3.8% at one point on the same day, and then the drop narrowed slightly. The bond market was also affected, with the yield on 10-year lira bonds rising 28 basis points to 32.61%.

Bloomberg said that although the progress of Imamoglu's case this time also caused stock market fluctuations, the extent of the fluctuations was not as severe as the market crash caused when he was first arrested in March this year. At that time, the Turkish government had to use over $50 billion in central bank reserves to save the lira exchange rate, highlighting concerns from the outside world about the increasing efforts of the Turkish government to crack down on the opposition.

Photo: Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul, Turkey IC Photo

According to the report, after nearly eight months since Imamoglu was arrested on suspicion of corruption, the Turkish authorities have released a 4000-page indictment, listing as many as 402 suspects, and characterizing Imamoglu as the "founder and leader of a criminal organization." This long list of charges includes bribery, fraud, extortion, and tampering with bidding documents.

For this, the court will have 15 days to decide whether to accept or reject the indictment. If the case is allowed to proceed, a trial date will be set. Previously, Imamoglu denied any misconduct and called this case a "clumsy tactic" to prevent him from running for president.

"This indictment may have far-reaching political and institutional impacts, most notably, the government may appoint a trustee to manage the Istanbul municipal government," said Wolfgang Piccoli, co-president of policy risk consulting firm Teneo, in a report.

The report said that this indictment further increases pressure on the Turkish opposition, especially since this year, the pressure on the opposition has significantly increased, with their controlled local governments facing investigations one after another, and hundreds of officials from the opposition camp were detained on suspicion of corruption after winning the 2024 local elections.

Imamoglu originally planned to run for president representing Turkey's largest opposition party, the Republican People's Party. He now faces a cumulative sentence ranging from 828 to 2352 years. In addition, the prosecutors also requested the Supreme Court to investigate whether the Republican People's Party benefited from these charges.

Imamoglu is also facing other charges in multiple cases, and potential long prison sentences could effectively disqualify him from holding office, forcing the Republican People's Party to urgently find a new strong presidential candidate, while also increasing investors' concerns about political stability.

International "human rights organizations" and "democracy monitoring agencies" have criticized the arrest of Imamoglu, but Imamoglu accused Western leaders of having a cold response, believing that they put geopolitical interests above "democratic values."

On March 19 this year, Turkish police detained Imamoglu on charges of corruption and aiding terrorist organizations. Subsequently, large-scale protests erupted domestically in Turkey.

At the age of 54, Imamoglu is one of Turkey's prominent opposition figures and a member of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party. He was first elected mayor of Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey, in 2019 and was re-elected in 2024. Imamoglu is seen as one of Erdogan's strong competitors.

In the local elections held last year, the Republican People's Party successfully controlled several districts, including the capital Ankara and the largest city Istanbul, winning the mayoral elections in 36 cities. Nationally, the Republican People's Party received more than 37% of the votes, surpassing Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party by 2 percentage points, making Erdogan face his "worst defeat" since taking power.

The next Turkish presidential election is scheduled for 2028, but most analysts predict that if Erdogan runs, the vote may be held earlier. The New York Times reported that the Turkish constitution stipulates that the president can only serve two terms, but Erdogan may hold an early election and then run again, claiming that he did not complete his second term.

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer News, and it cannot be reproduced without permission.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571716921041650230/

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