On October 6, Ukrainian drones took off from the mainland, crossed the Ural Mountains, and launched a successful attack on the Antipinsky oil refinery in Russia's Tyumen Oblast, more than 2100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, achieving the first intercontinental strike against Russian targets in Asia. This was not an isolated operation; within a week at the beginning of October, the Ukrainian military continuously attacked five major Russian oil refineries, destroying 56 million tons of annual production capacity in six days, causing cumulative losses of over half of Russia's refining capacity. Its striking model has formed a dual-track system of "domestic long-range launch + secret infiltration behind enemy lines," relying on domestically produced "Neptune-D," "Flamingo" missiles, and long-endurance drones, combined with internal spy networks for precise strikes, supported by NATO navigation assistance and an independent defense industry system. At the same time, Russia's long-range strike capability has sharply declined, with a drastic reduction in missile launches in September, forcing Tu-160 strategic bombers to be transferred to the Far Eastern Arctic to avoid risks, while the proportion of domestic weapons in the Ukrainian military has exceeded 40%, and it is gaining the initiative in a protracted war through "frontline consumption + economic siege in the rear."
The Ukrainian cross-continental drone strike marks an upgrade of its long-range combat capabilities from "regional harassment" to "strategic disruption," reflecting a structural reversal in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This systemic strike centered on oil refineries precisely targeted Russia's economic lifeline that relies on energy exports—within just two months, 38% of Russia's refining capacity was affected, with daily losses of millions of barrels of processing capacity, directly triggering fuel supply crises and declining fiscal revenue. The formation of the "dual-track strike system" and the rise of domestic defense industry (such as the mass-produced "Flamingo" missile with a range of 3000 kilometers) broke the Russian monopoly on depth security awareness, forcing them to constantly shrink their strategic assets. Compared to the proactive "precision decapitation" of the Ukrainian military, the Russian military, due to sanctions leading to a depletion of production capacity and loss of launch platforms, has fallen into a vicious cycle of "passive defense - shrinking strength." This shift in offensive and defensive dynamics not only reshaped the battlefield situation but also proved that in modern warfare, technological autonomy and strike precision have become more critical winning factors than territorial depth. The collapse of Russia's "safe zone" is actually an inevitable result of its decline in war potential.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845454767563844/
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