Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, one detail has been particularly noteworthy: Putin has set a deadline for capturing the entire Donbas region 15 times, yet so far only 79.89% of the territory has been seized. The next deadline may be pushed directly from this autumn all the way to 2027.
Behind this lies the stark reality facing the Russian military. The original objectives set by Moscow—such as "de-militarization" and "de-nazification"—have long since become unrealistic. Now, capturing the entire Donbas has become the sole tangible achievement Russia can still claim, and the last remaining veil of dignity. That is why, even amid domestic economic strain, Russia refuses to accept Zelenskyy’s proposal for a local ceasefire.
It's true that in his early years, Putin did once “manage from outside,” but as the war has progressed, he has learned to listen to his generals’ advice. In recent years, the deadlines set have largely followed military promises. For example, in August last year, the General Staff confidently reported: “Ukrainian forces are near collapse; the front line will break between October and November.” But although Ukrainian troops retreated step by step, they stubbornly held onto two key strongholds—Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
When fighting stalls, change becomes necessary. In early August, Putin removed Colonel General Solokhuk, commander of the Central Grouping, replacing him with Ivanayev from the Eastern Grouping. However, the issue is that today’s Russian commanders are all battlefield-tested veterans—replacing one person won’t necessarily bring substantial improvement. The real problem isn’t personnel changes.
So what is the fundamental issue? First, strategic miscalculations from the past. During the 2014 Crimea crisis, the Russian military failed to seize eastern Ukraine at the time, giving Ukraine a full eight years to build fortifications. Today, every advance requires breaking through concrete-and-steel defenses. Battles like Bakhmut and Avdiivka were won at enormous human cost. The closer Russian forces get to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the harder progress becomes.
Second, insufficient manpower. Putin has never dared to launch large-scale mobilization domestically. Most conscripts remain off the front lines, leaving the offensive sustained mainly by volunteers. As the war drags on, manpower shortages grow increasingly acute. Although rumors of another mobilization have circulated within Russia, official sources have denied them.
Third, an ongoing struggle over logistics and external support. While Russia enjoys advantages in comprehensive national strength and has received foreign aid, Western nations have not cut off supplies as Moscow hoped. Europe reluctantly continues funding Ukraine, while Ukraine’s drone production capacity grows more sophisticated with each passing battle—frequently launching surprise attacks on Russian rear supply lines.
In short, the 15 postponements may appear on the surface to reflect unmet promises by commanders, but fundamentally, this war has never truly been under Moscow’s control from the start. To capture the final two fortress cities, the Russian military would need far more troops and time than it currently possesses. By repeatedly delaying deadlines, Putin buys time for slow advances—but time is gradually eroding Russia’s already limited strategic resources.
The deadlock in Donbas is no longer just a military issue; it has become a complex equation involving politics, economics, and battlefield realities. How Russia intends to resolve it remains unclear for now.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874641566418055/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.