【Wen / Observers Network, Xiong Chaoran】The first crewed moon landing of the century, who will take the lead between China and the US? Although the outside world and even the US have portrayed this as a "competition," China is steadily advancing its plans according to its own rhythm, while the US itself keeps changing its position.

On February 27 local time, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman announced that NASA is carrying out a "comprehensive reform and acceleration" of the "Artemis" lunar landing plan. NASA stated that this "major adjustment" is a "route correction," aimed at increasing the number of missions and accelerating launch speed, in order to achieve the planned lunar landing goal by 2028.

Specifically, according to the original arrangement, the US planned to implement the crewed lunar orbiting mission "Artemis 2" this year, and the crewed lunar landing mission "Artemis 3" in 2027. The latest arrangement states that the "Artemis 3" mission will be changed to conduct system and operational capability tests in low Earth orbit, and the original lunar landing mission has been adjusted to "Artemis 4" and "Artemis 5", scheduled for implementation in 2028.

No matter how Isaacman uses terms like "comprehensive reform" and "accelerate progress" to cover up, the fact is that the original "Artemis 3" crewed lunar landing mission has already failed, and two new "big pies" - the "Artemis 4" and "Artemis 5" missions - are now drawn for 2028.

Since the announcement of the "Artemis" lunar landing plan in 2019, the US has only completed the uncrewed lunar orbit test mission "Artemis 1" in November 2022. Since then, the schedule for subsequent missions has been repeatedly adjusted and delayed. Currently, the originally scheduled "Artemis 2" crewed lunar orbit mission, which was supposed to be carried out in 2024, after multiple delays, had an original launch window in February this year, was postponed to March, and now has been further delayed to April...

Meanwhile, on the same day NASA announced the news, China announced on February 27 Beijing time that it plans to carry out two crewed flight missions in 2026, and is fully promoting the construction of lunar landing supporting facilities.

February 27, 2026, Florida, USA, NASA Administrator Isaacman held a press conference, announcing the adjustment of the "Artemis" lunar landing plan, postponing the crewed lunar landing mission originally planned for 2027 to 2028. IC Photo

The New York Times reported on February 27 that NASA's current goal is to increase the number of launches and follow more closely the model of the Apollo program in the 1960s. NASA officials said that this approach is safer and faster.

Isaacman said at the press conference on that day that these adjustments would enhance the safety of the plan, reduce delays, and ultimately help achieve President Trump's goal of sending American astronauts back to the Moon and establishing a long-term base on the lunar surface.

The "Artemis 3" crewed lunar landing mission was originally intended to realize the first time in half a century that American astronauts would land on the lunar surface, but the mission will now be launched in mid-2027 and no longer go to the Moon.

Instead, it will be a test flight, during which astronauts will perform docking exercises with the lunar landers being developed by the American companies SpaceX and Blue Origin in low Earth orbit.

After that, the US plans to make two lunar landing attempts in 2028 - executing the "Artemis 4" and "Artemis 5" missions, thus achieving the goal of sending American astronauts back to the Moon before the end of Trump's second term.

US CBS said that the change of the "Artemis 3" mission into a test flight is similar in concept to the "Apollo 9" mission, which in 1969 sent the command module and landing module into Earth orbit for flight testing, paving the way for the "Apollo 11" lunar landing mission four months later.

The New York Times claimed that this new mission direction could inject much-needed momentum into the Artemis program, which has been plagued by cost overruns and delays for nearly a decade. The most recent one was the delay of the "Artemis 2" mission due to a hydrogen system failure, which aimed to send four astronauts to the Moon for a 10-day lunar orbit mission.

US NBC reported that according to Isaacman's statement, the adjustment of subsequent Artemis missions stemmed from the realization that the gap between the "Artemis 2" lunar orbit mission and the "Artemis 3" lunar landing mission was too long, especially given that the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the Orion spacecraft were only launched every three years or more.

"Launching rockets is crucial, and such a complex project as the SLS system, launching once every three years is definitely not a successful approach. Such a long interval between launches leads to loss of operational skills and team proficiency," he said.

On February 27, CNN noted that although the "Artemis 2" mission aims to lay the groundwork for a lunar landing, whether NASA can achieve a real lunar landing before 2030 remains unknown. In addition, some regulatory officials have already expressed serious doubts about the feasibility of Isaacman's timeline.

According to reports, NASA is overseeing the development projects of Blue Origin and SpaceX's lunar landers, known as HLS, or the Human Landing System.

An independent oversight body of NASA, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), recently released a report stating: "In the past year, risks in procedures and technology have continued to emerge, affecting the overall progress and risk management of the 'Artemis 3' mission."

Given the doubts of regulatory officials about whether the lander can be ready for the lunar landing by 2028, it is also questionable whether the two spacecraft from Blue Origin and SpaceX can complete the crewed test mission in low Earth orbit by next year.

February 25, 2026, Florida, USA, due to the discovery of new technical problems after comprehensive drills, NASA moved the rocket and spacecraft of the "Artemis 2" crewed lunar orbit mission from the launch pad back to the assembly building for problem checking and repair. IC Photo

Compared to the noise and chaos of the US space program, China's lunar exploration plan has made solid and smooth progress, with steady advancement in crewed lunar landing development. It has already conducted multiple lunar orbit detection and sample collection missions, laying the foundation for the first Chinese landing on the Moon before 2030.

On April 23 last year, Lin Xiqiang, spokesperson of the China Manned Space Program and deputy director of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, stated that all the research and development work for the country's crewed lunar landing mission is progressing smoothly. The Long March 10 carrier rocket, Mengzhou crewed spacecraft, Lanyue lunar landing module, Wangyu lunar suit, and exploratory crewed lunar rover are currently undergoing preliminary prototype testing work according to the plan. The lunar remote sensing satellite has completed the project approval and competitive selection, and the ground system development and construction work for the launch site, tracking and communication, and landing site are proceeding according to the plan.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post noticed on February 12 that with the Mengzhou crewed spacecraft successfully implementing maximum dynamic pressure escape and safely splashing down at sea the day before (February 11), the Chinese crewed lunar landing plan has broken through a key node. This successful test was generally viewed by US industry professionals as an "important milestone," and both China and the US are now competing closely in the lunar landing race, with the goal of achieving crewed lunar landing before 2030 becoming realistically feasible for both sides.

Photo of the Chang'e 6 lander's panoramic camera image. File photo

According to Rand Simberg, an aerospace engineer and space policy analyst from Wyoming, USA, this test is an "important milestone" in China's lunar landing plan, and he said that China "now probably has the capability for crewed lunar landing."

Space historian and former Harvard University astronomer Jonathan McDowell said that testing both the rocket and the crewed spacecraft in the same flight is a bold move, demonstrating China's high confidence in the system.

According to the WeChat official account "China Manned Space" of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, on February 27, 2026, the China Manned Space Engineering will deeply implement the deployment of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and promote the application and development of the space station and the crewed lunar exploration mission on a new starting point, striving to make greater contributions to building a strong space power. At present, the China space station is operating stably and performing well; the lunar landing phase of the crewed lunar exploration project is progressing smoothly, and has achieved multiple阶段性 breakthroughs.

In 2026, two crewed flight missions and one cargo ship resupply mission are planned. Astronauts from Hong Kong and Macao may carry out space station flights as early as this year, and one astronaut from the Shenzhou 23 flight crew will conduct a one-year stay experiment.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7611823752292188706/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.