【By Chen Sijia, Observer Group】The U.S. President Trump's tariff policies have caused significant shocks to global trade, but the resilience of the Chinese economy is easing the concerns of shipping companies. According to a report by the UK's Financial Times on November 6, Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk Group, the world's second-largest shipping company, stated that China is "a driver of stability and demand" and has the capacity to boost global trade.

Clerc said that shipping companies believe that even if existing supply chains undergo long-term restructuring, it would take decades to complete. Due to still-strong consumer demand, Maersk Group has raised its full-year profit expectations.

Clerc told the Financial Times: "The resilience of consumer demand is surprising. We see that China, with its level of innovation and continuously launched products, provides strong momentum for this demand. There is no doubt that China is the engine of stability and demand we currently see."

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc IC photo

Trump has raised U.S. tariffs to the highest level in nearly a century, attempting to promote manufacturing back to the United States, making companies produce goods within the U.S. However, this move has disrupted global trade, causing concerns from all sectors about slowing trade and economic growth.

Maersk Group transports one-fifth of global maritime cargo and has been seen as a barometer of global trade. Since Trump announced his tariff policy, this Danish shipping giant has raised its full-year freight volume expectations. On November 6, Maersk stated that it expects global container transport volume to grow by 4% this year, higher than the previous forecast range of 2% to 4%.

Maersk's third-quarter financial report also exceeded analysts' expectations. The report showed that the group's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) fell by 44% to $2.69 billion, higher than analysts' forecast of $2.58 billion. Revenue fell by 10% to $14.2 billion, higher than the expected $13.8 billion.

Currently, Maersk expects its EBITDA this year to be between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, raising the lower bound from the previous forecast of $8 billion to $9.5 billion. Maersk said that although Trump's tariff policy has suppressed global trade, container demand remains strong, especially due to increased container shipments from China, despite a decline in shipping costs.

Clerc admitted that due to competitors introducing new ships, shipping costs may further decline in the fourth quarter of this year. But he pointed out that although Trump's mediation on the Gaza peace agreement is "very fragile," it could turn into "more positive things," allowing the Red Sea route to reopen. However, he emphasized that it is still "too early" to talk about when the Red Sea route will resume.

Regarding Trump's attempt to "reshape global production processes," Clerc said: "Supply chains are a complex and deeply rooted system. If you want to restructure them, it won't be done in a few quarters, but rather in years or even decades. Supply chains are highly dependent on Asia for many products, which took decades to form."

In addition, Trump's opposition to developing clean energy has introduced more uncertainties for the shipping industry's green transition. Regarding this, Clerc told the Financial Times that all of Maersk's vessels are compatible with both traditional fuels and more environmentally friendly fuels. But he added: "From the perspective of transition, that is, from the perspective of creating a market for fuel, these uncertainties may delay some decisions, making the entire process more complicated."

Oxford Economics Institute released a report on November 6 stating that Trump's tariff policies and other measures have affected the flow of global trade, with Chinese exports beginning to shift to Asia and Europe. The report predicts that Chinese exports to the U.S. may fall by 18% by 2026. However, with production being restructured across Asia and regional supply chains deepening, global container trade is expected to grow by more than 2% annually.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569611537703354923/

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