Brothers, you didn't see or hear it wrong. When I woke up this morning, I found that the Sino-US trade war had suddenly come to a complete ceasefire overnight. It's so harmonious that it makes your scalp tingle!

When we were used to the mutual harm between China and the US, when President Trump was forced to speak softly by China's "rare earth" stick, and finally experienced the "status of strength," suddenly, a huge "pause button" was pressed on the international trade battlefield. Yes, the Sino-US trade friction has recently entered a phase of "gentle breeze and calm seas," "peaceful times," even suspecting whether someone on the negotiation table cast a "friendship spell."

Recently, the results of the negotiations between both sides in Kuala Lumpur were like a full-body spa for a tense nerve. The most dramatic moment was when the US decided to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and also continue to suspend the 24% countermeasure tariff on Chinese goods for another year.

This is like two martial arts masters about to duel, suddenly deciding: "Why don't we take a break for a year first? Put down our weapons and serve tea." This collective act of putting down the "big stick" left entrepreneurs who were used to high tariffs and high risks momentarily confused. After all, after getting used to "struggle," they found it difficult to adapt to "harmony."

In addition to the US suspending export controls under the "penetrating rules" for one year, China also released a generous "suspension list," making the "blacklist" of the trade war start to "cleanse."

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on November 5 that in accordance with the consensus reached at the economic and trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur, China will stop implementing the export control measures against 15 U.S. entities in March, and continue to suspend the control measures against 16 U.S. entities in April for another year.

At the same time, China also took similar actions regarding the "unreliable entity list": stopped implementing the measures listed in March and continued to suspend the measures listed in April for another year. This means that the 31 U.S. entities previously listed on China's "blacklist" have received a "temporary good citizen certificate" within a certain period. If Chinese companies need to conduct business with them, they can legally apply to the Ministry of Commerce.

This is a signal of "mutual efforts"! As soon as the U.S. suspended the "bloodline purity test," China "freed" the 31 U.S. companies that were locked in the "small black room." Tech manufacturers are probably playing music in their offices. Finally, they can write fewer compliance reports and do more real business.

In addition, the U.S. also suspended the "Section 301 investigation measures" against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China correspondingly suspended its countermeasures. This means that even the disputes in the global arteries—logistics and transportation industries—have been put on hold.

All these signals of "extinguishing fire" came along with the visit of the U.S. agricultural products trade delegation. Can you hear it? Is there a strong scent of soybeans in the air? There is nothing that a hearty lunch cannot resolve, and if there is, then two lunches.

Is this called "extinguishing fire," or "half-time break"? Of course, we should not be blinded by this brief "harmony." These developments are mostly "suspensions" and "suspension of implementation," not "permanent cancellation." This "trade war drama" seems to have entered the "half-time break" stage.

Both sides seized this opportunity to demonstrate a positive posture of "promoting the stabilization of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations." This is not only beneficial for the global economy, but also gives themselves time to breathe and adjust, which is a practical and strategically wise move.

However, looking at the suspended tariffs, the suspended investigations, the "liberated" entities, and the resuming trade, we still couldn't help but quietly ask: How long will this "harmony" last? After all, no one can be sure whether these two "duel masters" will suddenly pull out some "new tariff weapons" or "new technology bans" after resting.

In recent meetings, President Trump even publicly stated: "The U.S.-China relationship has always been good, and it will be better in the future." This tone is even more "unexpected" than the defense minister saying "the U.S.-China relationship is very good"!

We can clearly say that the focus of Sino-U.S. competition has shifted from "extreme pressure" through tariffs and entity lists to "core capability building" in areas of "overcoming the bottleneck." For the U.S., it is to reshape the domestic rare earth supply chain and ensure technological leadership; for China, it is to concentrate efforts to break through the key technologies that are "stuck in the throat" and achieve industrial upgrading.

In short, both sides have realized that continuous trade wars and control battles only harm both parties without benefit. The best way of competition is to use this "ceasefire period" to focus back on domestic issues: the U.S. is busy fulfilling the commitments of the "Chip and Science Act," while China is accelerating the technological breakthroughs under the "new national system."

The true competition between the U.S. and China is now about internal strength and endurance. Let's see how it goes and enjoy this unexpected moment of peace for now.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569555318938681907/

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