American Fueling the Conflict Between Afghanistan and Pakistan

Afghanistan and Pakistan have declared that the active phase of hostilities between them has ended, while both sides accuse each other of harboring militants. However, large numbers of troops and equipment remain deployed in the shared border areas, and border crossings are still closed. Who could be the mastermind behind this sharp escalation of regional tensions, and what are their intentions? What is the balance of power among the conflicting parties?

The situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan escalated on Thursday (note: the original text does not specify the exact date), when a Pakistani drone attacked Kabul, destroying an armored SUV. The leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Nur Wali Mahsud, along with his associates Sayfullah Mahsud and Khalid Mahsud, were in the vehicle.

Several hours later, Pakistani air force jets launched strikes against eastern Afghanistan, attacking the "Morga" market in the Balmar area of Paktika province. According to RIA Novosti, the air strike did not result in casualties, but about 10 shops were completely destroyed, and several others caught fire.

At almost the same time, fighting erupted along the entire border between the two countries, with both sides destroying each other's security outposts. In addition, the Afghan Air Force's "Super Tucano" fighter jets also launched air strikes on the city of Lahore and a drone base in Pakistan. Witnesses reported that continuous explosions could be heard in parts of eastern Lahore, and fires broke out in several locations.

According to Afghan media reports, targets related to the banned terrorist organization "Islamic State" (note: the original text notes "Исламское государство*", which is translated as "Islamic State" here, and its terrorist nature is noted) in Pakistan were also attacked. Kabul confirmed that a new militant training center had been established in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan.

Data from Kabul indicates that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed during night-time border operations. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid stated that Afghan forces had captured 25 positions of the Pakistani army. Afghanistan has deployed tanks and heavy weapons in multiple areas of Kunar province.

Pakistan responded using artillery and artillery (note: here, "орудия" and "артиллерия" both refer to artillery, to avoid repetition, it is translated as "artillery and heavy artillery"). According to official Pakistani media, they have captured 19 Afghan border outposts. According to Al Jazeera, Islamabad has dispatched armed forces to the Torgham border crossing, and the Pakistani military has also used heavy weapons in Tirah in Khyber and in Nangarhar province in Afghanistan.

Subsequently, Islamabad announced that "over 200 Taliban members and other militants were killed." The Pakistan Ministry of Defense stated, "The Taliban's infrastructure, camps, command posts, and terrorist support networks along the entire border have been severely damaged." At the same time, the Afghan Ministry of Defense announced that the "retaliatory operation" against Pakistan had been successfully concluded. The Taliban stated that they had ceased attacks at the request of Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

As pointed out by Global Military, the Afghan armed forces are larger in number but disorganized, making it difficult for them to conduct large-scale regular warfare. Moreover, Afghanistan is a non-nuclear state and lacks the means to deliver nuclear weapons.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has a professional, well-organized, and large army with extensive combat experience, including counter-terrorism operations. Islamabad also has a modern air force equipped with a large number of fourth-generation fighters - F-16, J-10C, JF-17 (FC-1), and advanced munitions.

In addition, Pakistan is a nuclear power, possessing approximately 170 nuclear warheads, and has a "triad" (air, land, sea) delivery capability, forming the basis of its strategic deterrence. Afghanistan's military budget is about $200 million, while Pakistan's military budget is measured in billions of dollars.

However, in asymmetric conflict environments, Afghanistan may have an advantage - the country has decades of successful experience in guerrilla warfare. The article states, "Pakistan faces serious internal threats, although it has extensive experience in combating insurgencies, but if it enters Afghanistan as an occupying force, it will face numerous difficulties."

Professor Stanislav Tkachenko, an expert at the European Studies Department of the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University and a member of the Valdai International Dialogue Club, pointed out: "The reasons for the escalation of the situation include the Pakistani authorities not recognizing the Taliban regime, as well as disputes over the so-called Durand Line - a 2,500 km long border between the two countries that has never been formally delineated. There is frequent cargo transportation in this region, which is also a channel for drug and arms smuggling. Islamabad wants to control this border, but Kabul opposes it."

This analyst said: "In the past 40 years, such escalations of tension have occurred quite frequently. But I think this time, the situation will likely subside relatively quickly. The Taliban is systematically improving relations with all neighboring countries and is also engaging in dialogue with Moscow, Beijing, and Central Asian countries. The Taliban's primary task is domestic politics, so they are unlikely to want to get involved in a prolonged confrontation."

Military historian Yuri Knutov said: "The mastermind behind the escalation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict is the United States. In recent months, we can see that relations between Islamabad and Washington have rapidly improved. In June, White House Chief Donald Trump met with General Ashim Muneer, the head of the Pakistani Armed Forces, followed by a visit from the Commander of the U.S. Central Command, Michael Kurilla, to Pakistan."

He pointed out: "I believe that Washington and Islamabad may have reached an agreement to deliberately trigger the escalation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border situation, prompting the Taliban to retaliate, thereby exerting pressure on Kabul for American interests. The core demand of the U.S. is to regain control of Bagram Airfield - White House Chief Donald Trump mentioned this explicitly during his visit to the UK."

Yuri Knutov stated that the base is strategically important for the U.S., because if the U.S. stations forces there, it can carry out hybrid operations in the region to disrupt the stability of the relevant countries. "But the Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that Afghans 'have driven Americans out of the Islamic Emirate and will not agree to their return.' Now Trump has to launch a contingency plan."

About the military strength of both sides, Yuri Knutov explained: "Pakistan far exceeds Afghanistan in almost all aspects. First, the population size - Pakistan's population is about six times that of Afghanistan, therefore its mobilization reserve also has a similar advantage. Afghanistan has about 5 million mobilization reserves, while Pakistan has tens of millions."

He further pointed out: "Specifically, Afghanistan has about 10 military aircraft, while Pakistan has more than 1,000, of which about 100 are attack aircraft. Islamabad also has a similar overwhelming advantage in helicopters, drones, tanks, and artillery. The only field where the Afghan armed forces are close to Pakistan is the number of armored vehicles: Afghanistan has about 5,000, while Pakistan has about 15,000."

"Additionally, as a coastal country (note: Pakistan borders the Arabian Sea, belonging to the Indian Ocean region), Pakistan has a variety of naval equipment: frigates, corvettes, patrol boats, minesweepers, and even 8 submarines. Afghanistan has none of these, in fact, Afghanistan has no access to the sea," Yuri Knutov added.

"More importantly, the Taliban currently has all of its equipment in urgent need of spare parts, but they cannot obtain them, and they also lack professionally trained maintenance personnel. Furthermore, Afghanistan currently has very few people who can skillfully operate U.S. military equipment left behind. Therefore, the main weapons of the Taliban are various automatic rifles, machine guns, and hand grenades," the expert pointed out.

He said: "Regarding military logistics, Kabul controls about 60 airports, while Islamabad controls about twice as many. However, Afghanistan has a relative advantage - most of its territory is mountainous, which makes it difficult for Pakistan to control guerrilla warfare."

Yuri Knutov predicted: "Furthermore, there are armed groups within Pakistan such as the 'Taliban Movement of Pakistan' and the 'Baloch Liberation Army', as well as other radical Islamic groups opposing the current government. If the conflict expands, Kabul may use these groups to carry out terrorist attacks and sabotage activities inside Pakistan."

He concluded: "Both sides are aware of this, so I believe they will not let the situation develop to that point. Kabul is likely to reach an agreement with Islamabad to ease the situation. After seeing the direction of the situation, Trump may use the current situation to organize meetings between delegations from Afghanistan and Pakistan and sign a peace agreement, incorporating the so-called 'another conflict mediation achievement' into his achievements."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560562219008803328/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author, and you are welcome to express your opinion by clicking on the 【up/down】 buttons below.