Reference News Network, July 16 report: The U.S. Foreign Policy website published an article titled "Indonesia, Vietnam and the BRICS Question" on July 11, authored by Isti Merta Sukoema. Excerpts follow:

The resurgence of great power competition is testing the traditional non-alignment of Southeast Asian countries. For Indonesia and Vietnam, which have long maintained a balanced approach with major powers, new developments in global order are creating new pressures and opportunities. Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president has intensified the turbulence in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, the BRICS cooperation mechanism is playing an increasing role, prompting middle powers in the region to make adjustments and seek alternatives to the Western-dominated architecture.

In June 2025, Vietnam obtained the status of a BRICS partner country, deepening its ties with the BRICS mechanism along with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. On the other hand, Indonesia was officially admitted as a BRICS member in January 2025, highlighting Indonesia's ambition to enhance its voice in global governance. These developments raise an important question: Can middle powers like Vietnam and Indonesia maintain strategic flexibility while moving closer to emerging mechanisms?

Due to the influence of post-colonial struggles and skepticism about being drawn into great power relations, Vietnam and Indonesia have traditionally pursued a non-aligned foreign policy. However, strategic ambiguity is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Both countries are carefully navigating a geopolitical landscape characterized by technological and economic competition, sanctions mechanisms, and competitive infrastructure financing.

Trump's second term saw a push to decouple global supply chains from China. Under this policy, Southeast Asia became both a beneficiary and a pressure point. Vietnam, in particular, has felt the pressure. The U.S. trade representative has asked Vietnam to significantly reduce its reliance on Chinese industrial products, which is a daunting task for an export-oriented economy deeply integrated with China.

Recently, Trump announced comprehensive trade measures: imposing a 20% tariff on all Vietnamese goods exported to the U.S., and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped from third countries. Although the specific details of the agreement remain unclear, analysts note that the policy targets components originally produced in China, which are the backbone of Vietnam's manufacturing industry.

For Indonesia, these changes coincided with a leadership change. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has adopted a more proactive foreign policy, characterized by high-profile diplomatic visits, symbolic gestures, and actions seen by some observers as an effort to elevate Indonesia's status. Indonesia's decision to become a formal BRICS member indicates its intention to enhance its global image, but without adopting a binary alliance strategy.

Vietnam's engagement with the BRICS mechanism also has its own considerations.

Different from Indonesia, Vietnam chose the status of a BRICS partner country without becoming a formal member. This likely indicates that Vietnam wants to maintain a strategic balance. On one side, it has deep economic ties with China, and on the other, it has growing security and trade partnerships with the U.S., Japan, and India. "Bamboo diplomacy" remains the core of Vietnam's foreign policy, symbolizing flexibility and resilience.

However, Vietnam's choices are increasingly constrained by external shocks. Trade barriers, technological differences, and varying regulatory standards make it harder to hedge bets. By joining the BRICS mechanism, Vietnam shows its support for establishing a multipolar order that does not require choosing sides between the U.S. and China.

Neither Indonesia nor Vietnam see the BRICS mechanism as an ideological bloc, but rather as a platform for middle powers to speak louder. Indonesia has long aspired to play a greater global role without getting involved in great power confrontations. For Indonesia, becoming a BRICS member has become a milestone step toward achieving this aspiration. Indonesia's foreign policy has long followed the maxim: "A thousand friends are too few, and one enemy is too many." In this sense, the BRICS mechanism provides a practical platform for Indonesia to pursue multilateralism reform, especially reforming institutions perceived to favor the Global North.

Vietnam's approach is more cautious, but equally strategic. As a BRICS partner country, Vietnam can participate in infrastructure, investment, and climate cooperation within the BRICS framework, while maintaining policy flexibility. Vietnam's cooperation with the BRICS mechanism also aligns with its digital and green development strategies.

For Vietnam and Indonesia, the BRICS mechanism is not just about prestige. The BRICS mechanism brings opportunities for investment and cooperation in key areas such as cybersecurity, digital governance, and artificial intelligence. If the BRICS countries can move beyond empty talk and achieve tangible results, they could become a force for change in the economies of the Global South.

As economic fragmentation deepens and global governance sparks more controversy, the choices of Indonesia and Vietnam will resonate throughout the Indo-Pacific. If the BRICS mechanism becomes a tool truly serving middle powers, it may help form a new, more inclusive international interaction model. (Translated by Liu Ziyan)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527607231001526836/

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