【By Observer Net, Shao Yun】
On the grounds of responding to the current Brazilian government's "witch hunt" against former President Bolsonaro, US President Trump has publicly written a letter to Brazilian President Lula, announcing that the US will raise the tariff on imported goods from Brazil from 10% to 50% starting August 1. Whether it is the 50% "reciprocal rate," which is the highest in this round, or the rather "special" reason for the tariff imposed by the US, both have made Trump's move attract international attention.
Although Trump emphasized that he was helping his ally Bolsonaro to seek justice, according to an article published by "Politico" on July 10, the reason behind Trump's decision has long gone beyond the scope of trade and involves geopolitical considerations. The report cited statements from four sources, saying that what really "angry" Trump was the recent BRICS summit held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where he had long been dissatisfied with the efforts within the BRICS to "de-dollarize."
On July 10 local time, residents of São Paulo, Brazil, held demonstrations to protest Trump's announcement of tariffs on Brazilian imports. China Visual.
"The BRICS countries have upset the balance"
Trump released the open letter on his self-created social platform Truth Social on the 9th. In the letter, Trump claimed that the US and Brazil have long had an unfair trade relationship, accusing Brazil of treating Bolsonaro as "international disgrace," and said the 50% tariff was a response to the "persecution" of Bolsonaro, a leader who is highly respected worldwide.
In Trump's view, Bolsonaro's experience is similar to his own. Like Trump, Bolsonaro also claimed that his defeat in the re-election was "manipulated," and his supporters staged events similar to the "Capitol riot" in the US, i.e., attempting to violently storm government agencies. Currently, Bolsonaro is being tried for allegedly planning a coup, and the prosecution accuses him of planning to assassinate the current president Lula.
"This is nothing more than an attack on political opponents — something I am very familiar with... let Bolsonaro go!" Trump wrote in another post.
However, "Politico" noted on the 10th that Trump's intense rhetoric masked a less "showy" but equally important goal: the BRICS countries.
Trump's open letter posted on July 9, Truth Social
Many media outlets, including AFP and Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, noticed that Trump's statement was released at a sensitive moment. This month, from the 4th to the 7th, the BRICS countries held their 17th leaders' meeting in Rio de Janeiro. On the 6th, Trump claimed on social media that the BRICS countries were pushing so-called "anti-American policies" and threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on all countries that "align with" the BRICS' "anti-American policies."
Luca responded in Rio de Janeiro at the time, saying that Trump's move was "wrong and irresponsible," and that the world today "does not need an emperor."
Unlike other countries that received similar open letters this week, the US has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil for the past 18 years. In 2024 alone, the US had a trade surplus of about $7 billion in goods with Brazil. If calculated by the total of goods and services, the surplus reached $28.6 billion. That is why when Trump initially announced the tariff measures in April, he did not set a so-called "reciprocal tariff" for Brazil, and instead imposed a 10% "base rate."
Data from the US Census Bureau shows that since 2007, the US has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil. CNN.
Why did Trump choose to "take out" Brazil this time? Mauricio Claver-Carone, a former US special envoy for Latin America and close ally of Secretary of State Rubio, told "Politico" directly: "It's the BRICS countries that have upset the balance."
The report said that during Trump's second term, the BRICS countries were always a "key focus." Since his re-election last November, Trump has repeatedly issued threats against the BRICS countries. On November 30 last year, Trump posted on Truth Social, demanding the BRICS countries "commit" to abandoning the idea of creating a new common currency, and not supporting any other currency to replace the dollar, saying otherwise the US would impose a 100% tariff.
"You can feel that whenever the president sees the BRICS countries' efforts to 'de-dollarize,' he gets very angry," said Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist during his previous term. "This Rio meeting made him even angrier."
According to the statements of the four sources mentioned earlier, this led Trump to decide to "punish" Brazil, but the White House judged that other "punishment methods" such as sanctions would take too long or be too complicated, and finally Trump chose to write a letter to Lula regarding the new tariff measures.
Two other sources said that Trump's personal relationship with Bolsonaro was also a factor in his decision to increase pressure on Brazil. A Washington official who works with the Brazilian government told "Politico" that this decision involved "many interpersonal relationships," mentioning the friendship between Trump's son Donald Jr. and Bolsonaro's son Eduardo, as well as their broad ideological consensus.
Local time on March 19, 2019, Trump met with then-Brazilian President Bolsonaro at the White House. CNN.
For this, the White House refused to comment, stating that Trump's position had been clearly expressed in the letter. A member of the Lula team's accompanying personnel told AFP that Brazil believed part of Trump's motivation to attack Brazil was due to "anxiety brought about by the strength of the BRICS."
Currently, the population of BRICS countries accounts for about half of the global population. Lula stated on May 5 at the opening ceremony of the BRICS Summit that the GDP of the 11 formal members of the BRICS has exceeded 40% of the global GDP.
Experts: Emerging countries may deepen their relations with the BRICS
Leland Lazarus, former special assistant to the US Southern Command and former deputy consul general at the US Consulate General in Shenyang, analyzed that Brazil is increasingly aligning with China on issues such as local currency trade, "which may have already triggered alarms in Trump's circle, especially among those advisors who see the global dollar hegemony as the pillar of American power."
Trump has clearly stated that he dislikes Lula. Lula has always advocated for a more balanced, multipolar world order and has worked to establish Brazil as a representative of developing countries. He supports promoting cooperation through multilateral institutions on issues like climate change, "Politico" reported, which contrasts sharply with Trump's nationalist, protectionist "America First" policy.
"If you look at the spectrum of attitudes of Latin American countries toward Trump, from those who get along well with Trump to those who strongly criticize him, Brazil is clearly closer to the latter," Lazarus said. "Lula's stance is exactly the opposite of that of Argentine President Milei, who is very close to Trump, even calling the US-Argentina relationship as being in a 'golden age.'"
Local time on July 9, Lula met with Indonesian President Prabowo during the BRICS Summit and held a joint press conference. China Visual.
Lazarus said that this might also be the reason why Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all BRICS members, intending to "divide" new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.
But many experts say that as trust in the US declines, Trump's actions will only encourage emerging countries like Brazil to deepen their relations with China and other BRICS partners, thereby "de-risking" from the US.
Leonardo Paz, a researcher at the Future Research and International Intelligence Center of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Brazil, said that compared to major economies such as China or the EU, Brazil's influence on the US market is small, and it cannot afford a prolonged trade war. However, this may precisely give Brazil the determination to "de-risk." The US government's pressure on Brazil may be a strategic mistake.
"Pressuring Brazil now is unwise. Eventually, it will force Brazil to hedge its risks, diversify its strategic partners, and reduce its dependence on the US in the future. If Brazil can successfully shift its exports to other markets now, the impact it faces next time will be much smaller," Paz said. Although Brazil may experience some pain, "this may prompt Brazil to break its dependence on a single buyer."
In 2024, Brazil's main exports to the US included crude oil, steel intermediate products, steel, helicopters, spacecraft, and coffee. CNN.
A report from Barclays Bank states that from Trump's tariff threat against Brazil, even if countries reach a trade agreement with the US before August 1, they may still face further tariff increases afterward. The report believes that this "will likely weaken the confidence of policymakers in Asian emerging countries," and even if a trade agreement is reached, trade policy uncertainty may not be eliminated.
Steven Okun, founder and CEO of Singapore-based strategy consulting firm APAC Advisors, also said that Trump's criticism of the BRICS countries and high tariff threats could ultimately backfire, making these economies more united because countries "expect" that Trump will use tariffs to achieve his goals without regard to time or reason.
Stephen Olson, a guest senior researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and former US trade negotiator, further pointed out that Trump's tariff threats against the Lula government to stop the judicial investigation into Bolsonaro involve foreign government internal affairs.
"This sends a signal to the US's trade partners that any issue that catches Trump's attention could become part of a trade issue," Olson told Bloomberg. "It also raises a question of whether these reciprocal tariff negotiations can really solve any problems."
According to the "MarketWatch" website, Magellan Group strategist and economist Thierry Wizman stated in a report that Trump's actions against Brazil "set a terrible precedent," as this is the first time that Trump has attempted to superficially influence the internal politics and judicial environment of a country, which surprised most analysts.
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