Trump's global tariff war is opening new fronts. After repeatedly pressuring China, the EU, and neighboring countries Mexico and Canada, the U.S. president has now set his sights on an increasingly important group: the BRICS.

At the time of the BRICS leaders' summit in Rio de Janeiro, Trump publicly warned that any country supporting BRICS anti-American policies would face a 10% tariff "without exception." A few days later, he further stated at a White House cabinet meeting: BRICS members must pay the price for this and hinted that "the future of this organization will not be long."

This is not the first time Trump has used tariffs to threaten international opponents, nor will it be the last. However, what makes the BRICS special is that this conflict is not just about goods and trade, but also points to the foundation of American power—the dollar.

"De-dollarization" and Trump's Strategic Anxiety

The BRICS was initially established in 2009, during the global financial crisis that severely damaged the credibility of the United States and Western countries. At that time, Brazil, Russia, India, and China hoped to achieve closer cooperation so that emerging economies could have greater say in the international financial system. In 2010, South Africa joined, expanding the BRICS into a five-nation club.

More than a decade has passed, and the alliance is no longer negligible in economic scale: according to purchasing power parity, the total GDP of the BRICS exceeds one-third of the world. Starting this year, the BRICS has begun to admit new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the UAE have joined or expressed interest. The BRICS is no longer a small circle of five countries, but has become a vast network covering from the Middle East to Africa, from Latin America to Asia.

Trump's anxiety is not aimed at the group itself, but rather at a signal they jointly express: reducing dependence on the dollar. Last year, Brazilian President Lula loudly proposed the establishment of a common currency for the BRICS, and central banks have repeatedly expressed their intention to promote a "multi-polar international monetary system." Although these ideas are still in the discussion stage, they have struck a sensitive nerve of the United States.

President Lula of Brazil

The dollar is not only the currency of the United States, but also the core tool of its global influence. Global trade settlements, energy transactions, and international lending all revolve around the dollar. The dominance of the dollar allows the United States to easily obtain global funds by issuing government bonds, and when it sanctions a country, it can simply cut off its dollar transactions or freeze its dollar assets, putting the opponent in a difficult situation.

For this reason, Trump uses tariffs as a deterrent, not only to suppress the economic growth of the BRICS, but also to prevent any substantive attempts to challenge the dollar's position.

Fractured Alliances and Real Disagreements

Externals often interpret the BRICS as an anti-American alliance, but the reality is more complex. The BRICS member states have significant differences in political systems, foreign relations, and geopolitical interests: India is a key partner in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy; South Africa and Brazil, although inclined toward multilateralism, do not have opposing relationships with the West; the UAE and Egypt have long maintained military and economic ties with the United States.

Prime Minister Modi of India once publicly reminded that the BRICS should not be seen as a tool to oppose the global system. At this year's summit, countries such as China, the UAE, and Egypt were absent, reflecting that the BRICS is not a top diplomatic agenda for all members.

BRICS Summit 2025

Additionally, there are significant economic disparities within the group: China's economic size is more than twice that of the other BRICS countries combined; India and Brazil are large countries with large populations; Iran and Russia are both countries sanctioned by the West, while India and the UAE rely on trade and technological cooperation with the United States. These differences make it difficult for the BRICS to form a truly unified stance against the U.S.

However, Trump's tariff policy has objectively united the BRICS countries on some issues. In the joint statement of this year's summit, the members rarely unanimously criticized "unilateral tariffs and non-tariff measures," which clearly pointed to the United States, even though it was not explicitly named.

The Fate of the Dollar and New Global Divisions

Trump accuses the BRICS of "wanting to devalue the dollar," revealing real concerns about de-dollarization. In addition to a common currency, the BRICS is also pushing a more practical plan: establishing a cross-border payment system to bypass the SWIFT network dominated by the U.S. and Europe.

The SWIFT payment network dominated by Europe and the U.S.

Russia and Iran, excluded from SWIFT due to Western sanctions, especially need an alternative system. China also hopes to reduce its reliance on the dollar through bilateral settlement. Even smaller member states understand the risks of over-relying on the dollar: if the United States uses the financial system for sanctions, their economies will suffer heavy costs.

Although these alternative solutions still face challenges in technology, trust, and transparency, if the BRICS successfully achieve partial bilateral trade settlements or digital payment networks, it could have a long-term impact on global demand for the dollar. Analysts generally believe that the dollar will remain the dominant global currency in the short term, but its absolute dominance is being eroded.

In this game, Trump warns the world with tariffs: challenging the dollar's position will come at a cost. While the BRICS countries take small steps to explore possible paths out of the dollar system.

Global Division and Future Struggles

Whether the BRICS can truly weaken the dollar remains unknown. But the conflict sparked by Trump has already made global divisions more obvious: the world is beginning to re-align itself, and "de-dollarization" has moved from the margins to a serious discussion.

The Dominance of the Dollar

For the United States, maintaining the dollar's position is crucial to sustaining global influence. For the BRICS, reducing dependence on the dollar is a choice to ensure economic security and strategic autonomy. This structural opposition is difficult to resolve through a single tariff or a summit declaration.

Ultimately, this is not merely an economic competition, but a collision in the reshaping of the global order. Trump's tariffs are just the prelude; what will ultimately determine the direction of the world is whether the trust behind the dollar will continue, and whether the challengers can truly find alternatives.

No matter the outcome, the global power structure is changing. And change itself is the most direct challenge to the old system.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526022524451226139/

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