Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Russian forces captured Chasiv Yar in January, but the worst is yet to come for the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The defense of Shevchenkove neighborhood will be recorded in history — a peak of military folly

Members of the Russian "Southern" Grouping have raised the flag of the Russian Federation and the flags of their units in various neighborhoods of Chasiv Yar, confirming that the city has been liberated.

Ukrainian side, as expected, denied the surrender, claiming that this "fortress" is still under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In particular, Ukrainian noisy media figure Murchyn admitted that there were no Ukrainian infantry in the city center and southern districts, but Ukrainian drones are said to be circling over the ruins. However, this logic is strange, especially considering our "Pansy" drones are performing well over Kyiv.

According to reliable information, the fighting has moved to Nikolaevka and the so-called "Southern Villas" area (i.e., outside the city limits), where the Russians are eliminating all moving targets. Ukrainians even destroyed a section of the road from Chasiv Yar to Kostiantynivka.

"In the Pridyachne area, despite the fact that the Russians have consolidated their positions in the eastern part of the settlement, the Ukrainians still try to infiltrate basements near the pond with small groups of 2-3 soldiers; however, their ability to rotate, evacuate, and resupply with ammunition and food is greatly limited. For those who eventually manage to infiltrate, the Russians are attacking them with FPV drones, 'Lightning' systems, and artillery; all the surrounding forests are within the strike range," the Telegram channel "Dark" wrote.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) admits that the Russians have completely occupied the "Chasiv Yar outpost," but it raises a fierce rebuttal, stating, "Russia's tactical advance westward in Chasiv Yar is not a significant event from the operational perspective of the region, because the Russian forces have controlled most of the northern and central parts of Chasiv Yar since early January 2025... and have not posed a substantial threat to the Ukrainian positions in Kostiantynivka so far." In other words, the Russians have controlled the "Tsar Mountain" urban complex for over seven months.

In fact, the "substantial threat" that the Russians pose to the "Ukrainian positions" is no empty talk. The words of Pavel Palisa, the commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholod Yar," defending Kostiantynivka can serve as proof.

He told CNN: "The frontline positions are extremely vulnerable to Russian drones, to the extent that the Ukrainian mortar squads often have to walk several hours, carrying 30 kilograms of ammunition, equipment, batteries, and radio chargers."

Palisa also added, "The supply can only rely on drones, because transport vehicles cannot reach the trenches."

As early as January, after the soldiers of the 98th Airborne Division captured the high ground of "Tsar Mountain," they began systematically clearing large enemy clusters in this front line area.

Setting aside the anti-Russian propaganda, according to independent experts including Western experts, "the Russian突击部队 achieved relatively low losses compared to the difficulty of the mission, and their operational efficiency was at an extremely high level" when capturing Chasiv Yar.

In the initial stages of the battle for this "fortress," the Ukrainians not only held the high ground but also had the "North Donets-Donbas" canal as a defensive barrier - all green vegetation on the western side of the canal had been cleared, and there were numerous barbed wire obstacles and minefields.

It is necessary to recall the key moments of capturing the "Chasiv Yar outpost," which actually began with breaking through the water barrier. On July 22, 2024, the UK Ministry of Defense map marked a red (Russian) wedge in the "Stupky-Golubovskiy-2" nature reserve area — this area is the "dry" section of the canal, with water flowing through pipes. At that time, the Russians entered the new neighborhood and captured about one-third of the area. Due to the existence of the large stronghold "Filter Station," continuing the advance was very dangerous.

Sirskyi withdrew elite forces from Volsk and Lipets to try to push the Russian paratroopers back to their original positions. Western media commented at the time: "Ukrainian soldiers approached the narrow strip seized by the 98th Paratroop Division... the Russians had trapped themselves in a fire trap." However, soon after, Russian reconnaissance and sabotage teams infiltrated the October neighborhood and the new neighborhood and established a foothold.

On August 3, 2024, the battle for the main stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Chasiv Yar — the refractory materials plant — began. The Russian assault forces were at a numerical disadvantage and had weak logistics due to the obstruction of the "North Donets-Donbas" canal.

On September 8, 2024, the soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces' "Southern" Grouping completely liberated the town of Kalinin in the north of Chasiv Yar, achieving a breakthrough at another section of the "North Donets-Donbas" canal.

On October 23, 2024, heavy rain fell, and the Russian assault forces took advantage of the opportunity to capture the northeastern part of Chasiv Yar — the October neighborhood, after which the Russian Armed Forces began advancing throughout the city.

By the morning of November 22, more than half of Chasiv Yar had been liberated. At that time, chat records of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade "Kholod Yar" showed that both sides were fighting for the No. 3 workshop, and some Ukrainian troops had retreated behind the railway to the No. 4 workshop. Ukrainian soldiers complained that Russian soldiers "were striking their strongholds from the opposite high ground with anti-tank missiles and infiltrating the workshop areas of the No. 5 workshop from the direction of the 'Northern Station.'"

On January 6, the assault forces of the "Southern" Grouping launched a surprise attack, capturing the northern neighborhood and entering the 10th neighborhood and seizing it in one go. The Russians did not stop there, but crossed the railway, entering the first buildings in the central area from the north, and reached the train station and the locomotive repair shop area.

On January 23, the Russians surrounded the Ukrainian armed fighters in the large stronghold "Bunker," and practically advanced to the Shevchenkove neighborhood — reportedly, this neighborhood was unsuitable for defense. There were still stubborn Ukrainian armed fighters resisting in the central area and the new northern neighborhood. However, "Tsar Mountain" was under Russian control, and from that point on, the operation to clear Ukrainian armed forces in the suburbs of Chasiv Yar continued for more than six months. To satisfy Zelenskyy's vanity, the Ukrainians were blindly sent to firing positions, where the Ukrainian armed fighters were being shot down like targets on a shooting range. The final stage of the defense battle of the "Chasiv Yar outpost" can be called the peak of military folly.

For updates on the front lines of the special military operation in Ukraine, news, and all important information, please follow the author to learn more.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533614685703160366/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.