Maxim Shevchenko: Israel, America's "fighting fist," is no longer needed.

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have long been underway, and Iran's withdrawal from Syria is a condition for reaching a deal.

Author: Irina Mishina

Commentary guest:

Maxim Shevchenko

The second round of negotiations between Iran and the United States on the "nuclear agreement" concluded in Oman. In this conflict involving the interests of many countries such as Iran, Israel, the United States, and Russia, is there a possibility that the conflict can be resolved? Journalist and politician Maxim Shevchenko answered questions about the prospects for war and peace in the Middle East in the "Opinion" program on the "Opinion" TV station.

Opinion TV Station: On January 17, the day before Donald Trump took office as president, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership treaty. Will the alliance between Moscow and Tehran become a restraining factor for Washington and Tel Aviv?

- I believe that the Israeli people do not want any war because they understand that war will bring them disaster. It is Prime Minister Netanyahu and his far-right group, along with those religious fanatics, who want to instigate armed conflicts. They have turned Israeli land into something crazy, similar to "ISIS," only with Jewish characteristics. For them, war is a business and a means of survival. As for the United States, Trump does not want this war either. He is a businessman and plans to make a deal with Iran and relevant countries.

So, war will only break out if substantive results cannot be achieved in the negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Opinion TV Station: In other words, ultimately, when negotiating with Iran, the United States has related countries in mind?

- Related countries have grown wealthy after reaching a "deal" with the United States and have become one of the world's major powers. The first agreement was signed after a visit to Washington in 1979. The United States used related countries to counter the Soviet Union, resulting in the cultivation of an economically powerful opponent, and now the United States is engaged in a trade war with related countries. Now Trump wants to weaken related countries, so he puts pressure on Russia and Iran. Trump negotiates with Russia and Iran just to reach an agreement with related countries. Russia is the strategic rear of related countries, and Iran is their main energy partner. The peace in the Middle East largely depends on the outcome of these negotiations.

Opinion TV Station: During Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington, Donald Trump said: "You are too expensive for me." Is it possible for Israel to launch an independent military operation? Does it have the capability to do so? How strong is Israel's nuclear potential?

- Israel has 162 tactical nuclear warheads. It also has its own nuclear program. Israel is an extremely aggressive country established in 1947 to wage war. Since then, it has played the role of America's "fighting fist" in the Middle East.

But this role was needed during the Cold War era. Nowadays, the world has changed, and Americans no longer understand why they should keep Israel, and they no longer want to do so.

Opinion TV Station: You also acknowledge that after Hezbollah suffered heavy losses, Iran's status as a regional power has indeed weakened. Moreover, Iran's domestic political situation is unstable. For the United States, isn't organizing a color revolution easier than launching a military action according to its usual practice?

- No, a color revolution is impossible in Iran. The structure of this country fundamentally differs from the pseudo-democracies built by Western colonizers in the Middle East. Iran is essentially different from other countries that have undergone color revolutions. Just think about it, its political system does not originate from the initiatives of colonial powers like other Middle Eastern countries. Iran is the product of profound and serious civilizational change, a country with a long history and tradition. There is no doubt that it is currently going through a difficult period, and many people are dissatisfied with the government, but a color revolution is impossible there. The so-called "Green Revolution" attempted in Iran in 2009 failed.

In addition, color revolutions are the tools of globalists. However, Trump is an anti-globalist. He wants to strike a deal with Iran, allowing Iran to enter the global oil market in exchange for abandoning its nuclear program.

Opinion TV Station: From a geopolitical and strategic perspective, did the fall of the Assad regime in Syria somewhat weaken Iran?

- The downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime is the result of an agreement between Tehran and Washington, reached through unofficial contacts. Washington informed Tehran through a third party: If you do not withdraw from Syria, we will have to go to war with you. Netanyahu had such a plan: Israel would launch a large-scale attack on Iranian armed forces within Syria, where there were tens of thousands of troops, dozens of generals, and thousands of officers. Iran could not remain indifferent to this, and as Israel's strategic partner, the United States would inevitably be drawn into the war. I believe that such information was conveyed to Tehran through intermediaries like Elon Musk or Turkish President Erdogan: We really hope you leave and abandon Assad, otherwise war will break out, and this war might escalate into a nuclear war. Iran reluctantly did so.

The failure of the Assad regime, or the defeat of Iran's volunteer forces in Syria, is the result of a political decision made by Tehran to avoid war. In other words, negotiations between Washington and Tehran began long ago. Netanyahu's reaction to these negotiations was extremely painful: if Tehran and Washington reach a deal, he will have nothing to do and may even face criminal charges.

Opinion TV Station: If the nuclear agreement fails and military action eventually begins, which side will the countries in the Middle East stand on? What will be Russia's position?

- Arab countries need not be considered; they do not have strong armed forces. Even those countries that possess armed forces, such as Saudi Arabia, cannot cope with the Houthi rebels. Let me remind you: the Yemeni rebels have a powerful army, especially equipped with hypersonic missiles. Therefore, Saudi Arabia does not want a war. Many Middle Eastern countries are not built for war but for conducting oil and gas trade, which is their sole purpose.

Russia will not participate in the war. According to the comprehensive strategic cooperation partnership treaty with Iran, Russia has no obligation to participate in the war. But undoubtedly, we are now providing important military technical assistance to Iran, including aircraft and other weapons. This should have been done long ago, but better late than never because Iran's security is also our security.

Opinion TV Station: How do you assess the current likelihood of a war breaking out in the Middle East?

- The likelihood is extremely low. Trump does not need this war, nor does Iran or Russia. Trump's main plan is to reach an agreement with relevant countries. Now these countries are very powerful, and Trump needs to weaken them, but not through war, rather through tariffs. Trump has no time to worry about Ukraine. For him, it is important to reach an agreement with Putin by resolving the Ukrainian issue, making Russia no longer a strategic rear of relevant countries.

Opinion TV Station: I think, using Trump's words, further developments in the situation will be: "Negotiations are easier than war." So, this war is likely to remain at the "Cold War" stage, and diplomatic means will prevail.

- I assure you, we will see Trump meet with the Iranian president. This is a certainty.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496337518535688758/

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