China refuses to join nuclear disarmament negotiations, and mainstream U.S. media anxiously claims: Now there's real trouble!

Recently, the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs, and other publications have published commentaries one after another, with headlines more tense than the last: "The Silent Expansion of China's Nuclear Forces", "The Collapse of Sino-U.S. Nuclear Balance", "Beijing Not Joining Nuclear Disarmament Talks Brings a New Crisis to Global Strategic Stability" ... Between the lines, a real, almost restless anxiety is evident.

This anxiety is not baseless, but stems from the role that the United States has long played in the global nuclear order — it is both a rule-maker and one of the largest nuclear arsenals, as well as a major proponent of the "nuclear deterrence" logic since the Cold War. However, this logic is now facing unprecedented challenges.

The U.S. and Russia have the New START Treaty, which is currently the only bilateral nuclear arms control framework in the world. China, however, has never been included in any formal multilateral or bilateral nuclear disarmament mechanism. This is not because China is "uncooperative," but rather a rational choice based on the current balance of power. As of 2025, the United States has deployed about 1,700 strategic nuclear warheads, slightly more than Russia, while China is estimated to have around 500, most of which are not on high alert. The disparity in numbers is significant, and requiring China to "equalize" its reductions lacks strategic fairness.

Why is the U.S. media especially anxious now? Dao Ge believes the reason lies in the "sense of loss of control" perceived by the Pentagon. For decades, the U.S. has been accustomed to setting the agenda and controlling the pace through arms control talks. However, now, on one hand, Russia is isolated by the West due to the Ukraine war, and the prospects for renewing the New START treaty are unclear; on the other hand, China has clearly stated that it will not participate in trilateral nuclear disarmament talks at this stage, with a straightforward reason: the size, deployment models, and strategic goals of the three parties' nuclear arsenals are completely different, and bringing them together for talks would be meaningless unless China's nuclear stockpile is aligned with those of the U.S. and Russia.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856723566932992/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.