[Source / Observer Network Qi Qian] "In the long run, Trump's China tariffs may make China's domestic economy stronger."

On April 15, the South China Morning Post published an article with this title, stating that US President Trump has raised the tariff cudgel against China, but the result will be counterproductive. The Chinese side believes that the US tariff policy will have a short-term impact on China and the global economy, but from a long-term perspective, it will be a "powerful catalyst" to accelerate China's technological progress and integration with the domestic market.

"From a long-term perspective, this may actually be good for us," said an economic official in China.

This official told the South China Morning Post: "This not only encourages us to strengthen independent innovation and high-tech construction capabilities, but also will effectively promote our efforts to accelerate the construction of a comprehensive domestic economic circulation system."

On April 2, Trump announced the so-called "reciprocal tariff." Visual China

After taking office, US President Trump acted recklessly, triggering a global tariff war, causing huge market fluctuations globally and panic domestically in the United States.

In just two weeks, Trump's tariff policies have changed repeatedly: first, he started a tariff war against the entire world; after the global stock market was shaken, he suddenly suspended the "reciprocal tariff" for 90 days and targeted China at the same time. Since then, Trump has repeatedly increased tariffs on China. The US tariff on China has increased from 20% at the beginning to 54%, then to 104%, 125%, and recently to 145%.

The Chinese side resolutely retaliated. On April 9, China announced countermeasures, raising the additional tariff rate on all imports from the United States from 34% to 84%, which took effect at 12:01 am on April 10. On the 11th, China announced increasing the tariff on the US by 84% to 125%. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce simultaneously pointed out that the US's excessively high tariffs have become a numerical game, and if they continue, China will ignore them.

The South China Morning Post noted that while the world is struggling to cope with the uncertainty brought about by Trump's constantly changing tariff decisions, China has become better prepared due to the trade shocks initiated during Trump's first term. The article mentioned that in 2020, China launched the "dual circulation" strategy aimed at enhancing its domestic production and consumption capabilities to withstand future shocks.

Chicago University political scientist Yang Dalì also believes that, compared to the US, China may have a "relatively favorable time window" in the Sino-US trade war because it still maintains strong competitiveness. Trump's tariff measures may exacerbate inflation in the US.

The Chinese economic official stated that China's advantage lies in fully understanding its own situation, meaning it now has the ability to bridge the gap with the US. By contrast, Trump's team is "energetic and full of potential," but lacks governing experience and the ability to manage global affairs.

"In the past, the US was at least willing to lead the world to some extent..." the official pointed out, "but now they are unwilling to do so because they believe they are no longer the biggest beneficiaries of globalization, so they are retreating." The official added: "However, such a retreat by the US will be extremely difficult and will incur heavy costs."

On April 10, Trump admitted that his tariff policy had "transitional problems." Video screenshot

As the Sino-US trade tensions escalate, all eyes are on the possibility of bilateral talks.

During this period of constant changes, Trump has more than once publicly expressed his hope to receive a call from China and claimed that "China wants to reach an agreement but doesn't know how to do it." However, Trump's wishful thinking has fallen through. The Chinese side has made it clear, directly pointing out that Trump's China tariffs are "unilateral bullying behavior," and expressed willingness to negotiate on any tariff issues, provided mutual respect is maintained.

CNN previously pointed out that despite China's firm stance on negotiations, Trump's coercive attitude seems to have convinced China that the US does not want to negotiate.

At the same time, many experts have recently warned that the US should not underestimate China's ability to resist Trump's coercive strategies.

Jakob Gunter, chief economic analyst at the German think tank MERICS, also stated that China's firm response is based on the fact that "they have made quite adequate preparations." CNN pointed out that Trump's suppression of Huawei and other Chinese companies and the initiation of the Sino-US trade dispute during his first term served as a wake-up call for China. Since then, China has been preparing for the possibility of Sino-US trade friction.

"China has prepared for six years because they knew this might happen again," said Harry Harding, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego. During this period, China has been expanding overseas markets and promoting diversification of export trade.

Some experts said that China is now better equipped to deal with broader trade conflicts. Data shows that compared to 2018, China has expanded its trade relations with other countries. The proportion of US exports in China's total exports has dropped from about one-fifth to less than 15%. At the same time, China has established supply chains for rare earths and other key minerals, upgraded manufacturing technology using artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, and enhanced advanced technologies including semiconductors.

The Financial Times analyzed on April 15 that in this tit-for-tat confrontation, China holds multiple cards - increasingly diversified export markets, massive US Treasury bonds, control over key strategic minerals, and the advantage of the state system in crisis management. These chips not only enable China to withstand the test but also highlight its strength in negotiations.

Bloomberg published an article on April 14 stating that there are no winners in a trade war, but in this trade war initiated by Trump, a fact is becoming increasingly clear - China's chips may be more powerful than the US expected, especially when people begin to pay attention to its countermeasures. In fact, in Sino-US economic and trade relations, the US is deeply dependent on Chinese goods, and restricting imports has become a form of self-harm.

A chief China economist at a well-known economic research institution said bluntly: "Judging from market reactions, I think the US is feeling the pain more strongly right now... The US is under greater pressure to sit down at the negotiating table for talks."

This article is an exclusive piece from the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493706962572558875/

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