Rare earths are no longer passing through Chinese ports; Kazakhstan has written the Caspian route into the contract for the first time.
As a country with vast rare earth reserves, Kazakhstan's exports have long relied on land transport to Chinese ports followed by maritime shipping, but this is vulnerable to a single path. On December 20, 2025, at the first summit of the five Central Asian countries and Japan held in Tokyo, Tokayev reached a consensus with Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Asaoka, signing multiple agreements totaling $3.7 billion, covering oil, natural gas, uranium, and rare earths.
Japan has pledged to provide nuclear energy equipment and technical training to support Kazakhstan's mineral development. The key point is that this contract explicitly lists the trans-Caspian transport route as a priority option for the first time, avoiding the transfer of rare earths through Chinese ports. This route starts from Aktau Port in Kazakhstan, crosses the Caspian Sea to Baku Port in Azerbaijan, then travels by rail through Georgia to the Black Sea, and finally reaches global markets.
By taking this step, Kazakhstan has increased its export diversity and enhanced its bargaining power. Japan, on the other hand, ensures the stability of its manufacturing supply chain. Although the route has advantages, the Caspian Sea freezes in winter, requiring icebreakers and anti-freezing facilities. The transportation also involves multiple railway ferry changes, resulting in higher costs. To address this, Japan has invested in upgrading port automation systems and customs procedures to reduce logistics uncertainties.
This adjustment is not isolated; it reflects the broader trend of transformation in the global rare earth supply chain. Previously, Kazakhstan's rare earth exports were entirely dependent on China. In 2023 and 2024, 100% of its exports went to China, but now the government has launched a 2024–2028 Rare Earth Development Plan, aiming to build processing plants and attract diversified foreign investment.
For example, Vietnam cooperates with Europe to build local processing facilities, and Mongolia discusses direct routes with Japan and South Korea. These efforts give resource countries more initiative. Kazakhstan's exports to China reached $3.07 billion in 2023, and to Russia $1.8 billion. Now, through the Central Corridor, it has expanded to European and Japanese markets. The Caspian route, as part of the Central Corridor, connects Southeast Asia, China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Europe, bypassing Russia or China and reducing travel time to about 11 days.
After the summit, Japan emphasized that this would stabilize the supply of rare metals and energy, addressing trade friction. Kazakhstan also strengthens regional connectivity, such as the China-Germany-Uzbekistan Railway project, enhancing resilience. Overall, whoever controls reliable transportation holds an advantage in mineral distribution.
Following the agreement, Kazakhstan quickly advanced implementation. In early 2026, the first test train departed from Aktau Port carrying rare earth samples across the Caspian Sea to verify the route's feasibility. Japanese funds were injected to expand the port and optimize the connection with the Caucasus railway, reducing customs delays. Transportation challenges emerged, with winter ice increasing costs, but icebreaking equipment and dedicated tracks were gradually put in place. Kazakhstan and Japan continue to cooperate, with Japanese companies providing nuclear energy research support and training local engineers, promoting rare earth and uranium projects.
Tokayev continues to lead, and after 2025, he will visit infrastructure projects, emphasizing digital connectivity. As the rotating chair of the alliance, he presides over meetings, promoting regional cooperation. Domestically, he increases scientific funding, builds new university branches, and promotes cultural projects. Kazakhstan's rare earth strategy shifts toward processing and value addition, reducing reliance on raw material exports. In 2025, it will attract more investments. In the global supply chain, this enhances Kazakhstan's resilience, while Japan secures mineral inputs, reducing the risk of a single source. The overall development of the Central Corridor received EU investment in 2025, accelerating infrastructure upgrades.
During Tokayev's presidency, resource policy became a focus. He promoted a comprehensive plan aimed at building a rare earth processing chain by 2028, attracting Western and Japanese capital. After the successful test of the trans-Caspian route, freight volume is expected to grow in 2026, connecting to the European market. Kazakhstan's export structure is adjusting, with rare earths no longer solely relying on China, but being distributed to Japan and the EU.
The summit's outcomes included over 60 agreements covering environment, trade, and energy, with Japan becoming a major partner of Kazakhstan. Tokayev strengthened discussions with Russia to balance regional relations. Domestic reforms continue, and the pace of economic modernization accelerates, with mineral revenues used for infrastructure. In the global competition, Kazakhstan positions itself as a key supplier, while Japan reduces its dependence on China through investment. Route diversification has become a trend, with other Central Asian countries following, pushing the Central Corridor to become a new artery of Eurasian trade.
These changes make the rare earth market more complex. Kazakhstan holds over 12% of global reserves, but previously had weak processing capabilities. Now, it plans to build factories to enhance its position in the value chain. Japanese manufacturing consumes large quantities, and after the summit, Japan has increased its investment in Central Asia to ensure supply. Although the Caspian route is costly, its geopolitical advantages are clear, avoiding trade barriers.
In 2025, the EU Forum supported the Central Corridor, injecting funds to improve ports and railways. The Kazakh government approved mineral development, attracting $370 million in foreign investment. Under Tokayev's leadership, the country emphasizes strategic autonomy, with resource exports no longer passive. Over the next few years, this route may change the global landscape, giving resource countries more say. Japan adjusts its strategy, deepening cooperation with Central Asia, covering digital and renewable energy areas.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853643927809031/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.