【Text by Observer Net, Pan Yuchen, Editor by Gao Xin】According to the Russian news agency Sputnik, data from the Russian automotive market analysis institution "Vehicle Statistics Network" shows that in January-October this year, the total sales of new passenger cars in Russia exceeded 1 million units, a decrease of 20% compared to the previous year. At the same time, the sales of Chinese brand cars reached 569,900 units, a decrease of 27.3%, although they still occupied more than half of the Russian market, but the decline was higher than the average level.

Data from the Vehicle Statistics Network also shows that among the top ten brands sold in Russia, Chery Star途 had the largest decline of 52.8%. Followed by Great Wall Tank, Chang'an, Geely and Chery Omoda, with sales drops ranging from 39% to 41%. Chery brand and Chery JAECOO had declines of about 30%, while Great Wall Haval had the smallest drop of 15.2%. In addition, Chery JieTu and Guangzhou Auto achieved growth of 4% and 9%, respectively.

The new Hongqi HS5 displayed at the Red Square Mall in Moscow Visual China

Among the popular models of Chinese automakers in Russia, the sales of Haval Chuxi reached 53,200 units in the first 10 months, down nearly 28%; the sales of Geely Xingyue L reached 30,900 units, down 26%; the sales of Haval M6 reached 27,400 units, down 13.4%. The sales of Chery瑞虎7 Pro Max dropped the most, down 59.4% to 22,500 units.

Additionally, according to the data from the China Automotive Logistics Association Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, the number of cars exported to Russia from China in the first three quarters of this year was 358,000 units, a decrease of 58%. For the past two years, Russia has long been the largest export destination for Chinese cars, but as of September this year, Mexico has become the largest export destination for Chinese cars, and even the UAE has surpassed Russia to rank third.

Step by step

In his "Analysis of the Russian Car Market in October 2025," the secretary general of the China Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, Cui Dongshu, stated that the main risks faced by Chinese automakers in the Russian market are the uncertainty of the political and economic environment. Specifically, it can be divided into macroeconomic fluctuations and uncertainty in industrial policies.

In his view, the core reason for the sharp decline in Chinese car sales in Russia in 2025 is the Russian economic recession and low consumer confidence leading to a decline in sales. Chinese automakers, due to their previous stockpiling, have inventory exceeding 4-6 months' worth of sales, and Russian consumers have turned to the used car market, causing an imbalance between supply and demand and inventory buildup, further compressing new car demand.

On the other hand, a series of trade protection measures taken by Russia in recent years have also affected the exports and sales of Chinese cars in Russia. Cui Dongshu said that Russia's manufacturing industry policy has many traces of trade protectionism, which previously had an adverse impact on Chinese automakers investing in Russia. Given the current lack of competitiveness in the Russian automotive industry and structural shortages in supply, Chinese automakers need to anticipate changes in the situation and take early precautions against potential policy risks in the future.

After Western automakers exited the Russian market due to the Ukraine conflict, the market share of Chinese automakers in Russia quickly increased, reaching over 60% at one point in 2024. At the same time, the market share of Russian local brands was only one-third.

Therefore, as early as April 2024, Russia announced that vehicles transported through Central Asian countries to Russia needed to pay various taxes, including tariffs, value-added tax, and consumption tax, to prevent Chinese automakers from using the lower tariffs of Eurasian Economic Union member states to re-export cars to Russia. This move directly led to a significant reduction in the number of cars imported from China via Central Asian countries to Russia.

Chinese Great Wall Haval cars unloaded at the Sukhodol Port in the Primorsky Krai, Russia Visual China

In October 2024, Russia also announced that the recycling tax (scrapping tax) on imported vehicles would increase by 70%-85% by 2030, with an average annual increase of 10%-20%. Analysts believe that this measure increases the sales cost of Chinese cars in Russia by 10%.

Additionally, Russian mainstream media such as "Kommersant" reported last year under the title "Russian Taxi Drivers Have Some Complaints About Chinese Cars," highlighting quality issues with Chinese cars sold in Russia, which influenced some Russian consumers' attitudes towards Chinese cars from a public opinion perspective.

Aside from passenger cars, Russia has also imposed restrictions on Chinese commercial vehicles. In February this year, the Russian Minister of Industry and Trade, Arigannov, did not name three Chinese truck brands but criticized them for serious defects, requiring stricter certification and inspection of these vehicles, including revoking certificates; in July, Russia banned the import and sale of certain truck models from China's Dongfeng, Foton, Jiefang, and Shacman Saite, citing non-compliance with mandatory safety requirements, and required related automakers to take recall measures.

Arigannov also bluntly stated that the Chinese automotive industry is actively entering the Russian market and is continuously expanding its market share. The measures taken by the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, such as increasing the recycling tax, are intended to "restore balance," but it is not enough.

Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Arigannov Russian Satellite News Agency

Local Production or...?

However, some Russian entrepreneurs and local governments still hold a positive attitude towards Chinese cars entering the Russian market. According to a report by Sputnik News in October this year, the chairman of the Russian Asian Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Federation, Mankevich, stated that the Russian passenger car market still has appeal for Chinese car manufacturers, but to maintain their position, Chinese automakers need to consider the current situation and adjust their strategies.

Mankevich believes that Chinese automakers previously focused on expensive off-road vehicles and crossover vehicles priced above 4 million rubles (approximately RMB 350,000), but these are too expensive for most Russian consumers, so they should shift their focus to affordable models for consumers. Moreover, Mankevich believes that Chinese automakers need to pay attention to cooperation with Russian taxi and ride-sharing service providers, and adjust their vehicle models according to Russian climate conditions, including improving cold resistance and stability of cars in harsh weather areas, and meeting Russian technical standards to avoid recall incidents.

Finally, Mankevich said that Chinese automobile companies should achieve localized production in Russia to significantly reduce costs; use Russian information technology solutions to manage sales, and cooperate with local banks, insurance companies, and leasing companies, etc., financial partners to avoid sanction risks.

This month, a couple and their newborn in Moscow pose in front of their purchased Chery car Visual China

Some Russian local governments have also expressed willingness to attract Chinese automakers to carry out localized production. According to a report by Sputnik News in October this year, the deputy head of the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast government, Staloskiny, stated that Nizhny Novgorod Oblast is willing to attract Chinese enterprises intending to carry out localized production in Russia and provide the most favorable conditions, striving to be the pioneer in achieving localized production of Chinese enterprises in Russia.

However, so far, except for Great Wall Motor, no Chinese automaker has established and operated a complete vehicle factory in Russia. Other major automakers, such as Chery and Jianghuai, mainly cooperate with Russian local automakers, using the factories left by Western automakers after their withdrawal from Russia for car assembly.

Cui Dongshu also stated in his "Analysis of the Russian Car Market in October 2025" that Russia is using tax measures to structurally guide Chinese automakers to establish factories and produce. However, Chinese automakers need to be concerned about the "zero purchase" of European and American automakers' assets in Russia.

In his view, facing the complex environment in Russia, the strategic significance of "more children mean better fighting" for Chinese autonomous brands is great. The official export, parallel export, detour export, localized production, and joint venture assembly of Chinese autonomous brands all work together, achieving good results. Cui Dongshu believes that standardized exports to Russia are not suitable. Facing targeted interference measures from Russia, we must leverage the mass advantage under complex international relations to achieve innovative development.

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