【Has the Dissolution of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Already Begun?】

According to sources from The Telegraph, leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are set to hold a joint meeting on Monday to sign a formal agreement initiating the process of dissolving the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

At the Cardiff Summit, the three regional First Ministers will sign a joint declaration demanding the right to hold independence referendums.

The decision to convene this meeting stems from recent remarks by Andy Burnham in Parliament, in which he stated that if there is clear public support, a new independence referendum should be allowed in Scotland.

Two days before the Cardiff negotiations began, Trump publicly expressed support for Irish reunification.

"The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is indeed facing its most severe dissolution crisis in over 300 years of existence. However, 'dissolution' remains at the stage of political pressure and constitutional bargaining, with significant legal and practical obstacles still standing between it and an actual four-way split."

We can objectively analyze the current situation from the following core dimensions:

First, a historic turning point: For the first time, separatist forces across all three regions simultaneously hold power

The First Ministers of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—John Swinney, Mark Drakeford (note: corrected to Ruairí Ó Murchú or possibly Rhun ap Iorwerth depending on context; however, per original text, "Ruén Yoweth" appears to be a misrendering—likely meant to be Rhun ap Iorwerth), and Michelle O’Neill—gathered in Cardiff for an unprecedented summit. This marks the first time since the establishment of devolution that all three autonomous regions are led by parties committed to leaving the existing constitutional framework of the UK. Previously, London could “divide and rule,” but now the three regions are attempting to form a united front, presenting the principle of “national self-determination” as a collective demand upon Westminster.

Second, divergent demands and goals: Not a monolithic bloc

Although the three regional leaders have aligned their efforts, their ultimate objectives and legal pathways differ significantly:

Scotland: Fully committed to achieving independence and plans to rejoin the EU after independence.

Northern Ireland: Does not seek separate nationhood but aims for a “border poll” to achieve reunification with the Republic of Ireland.

Wales: Aims ultimately for independence and EU membership, but currently focuses more on expanding devolved powers; full independence remains a long-term goal, and support for it is relatively weak (around 30% or slightly above).

Third, dual catalysts: Internal political shifts and external interference

This crisis has been fueled both by internal political fractures and external influence:

The Prime Minister’s “opening the door”: The newly appointed UK Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, recently stated in parliamentary questioning that if Scotland forms a “clear consensus” in favor of independence, he would authorize another independence referendum. This statement has been seized upon by separatists as a breakthrough.

Trump’s “pouring fuel on the fire”: Just two days before the summit, former U.S. President Donald Trump, during a visit to Ireland, publicly declared his support for Irish unification, breaking decades of American neutrality. This greatly emboldened pro-unification forces in Ireland and triggered strong backlash within British political circles.

Fourth, real-world barriers: Why a swift breakup is unlikely

Despite the intense political momentum, the UK will not collapse overnight. It faces three major hurdles:

Legal and procedural barriers: The joint declaration signed today is essentially a political gesture without binding legal force. Under UK law, the final authority over national unity remains with the UK Parliament. The Burnham government has swiftly clarified that independence referendums “are not currently on the government’s agenda.”

Insufficient public support: No region currently enjoys a clear majority in favor of independence. Recent polling shows support for Scottish independence ranging between 45% and 50%; support for Irish reunification in Northern Ireland stands at around 36%; and support for Welsh independence is only about 32%, all falling short of a majority.

Economic and geopolitical challenges: Post-Brexit, the UK economy is under strain. Scottish independence would also face massive fiscal deficits and complex monetary restructuring issues. Meanwhile, the EU, concerned with its own stability, remains cautiously reserved toward admitting an independent Scotland and will not actively push for the UK’s disintegration.

In summary, while the alignment of the three regional leaders does not instantly dissolve the UK through legal documents, it signals that long-standing internal fractures within the UK have now become visible and institutionalized. The real challenge the UK faces is no longer whether “a single region might leave,” but rather, “if all three regions simultaneously demand the right to leave, how much longer can the central government in London refuse?” The countdown to the UK’s dissolution may have quietly begun in the political arena—but bridging the chasm of law and public opinion will require a prolonged and highly unpredictable struggle.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876290997450780/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.