On September 13, according to the UK's Daily Telegraph, leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland plan to hold a summit in Cardiff, the capital of Wales, on local time September 14, and sign a joint statement demanding the right to self-determination and the right to hold an independence referendum.

The report states that the three parties also intend to advocate for future EU membership, with Scotland and Wales joining as new member states, while Northern Ireland would join as part of the Republic of Ireland.

The statement will also include commitments to strengthen ties with European countries, preparing the ground for independence.

According to sources, the declaration aims to further pressure UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer previously stated that if there is public support for Scottish independence, a referendum could be held. However, he recently wrote to John Swinney, leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland, stating that no referendum will be allowed at this stage.

This joint declaration is essentially a political manifesto rather than a legal agreement. Following the regional elections in May 2026, the UK’s three devolved nations are now simultaneously governed by parties advocating either secession or union—marking the first time such alignment has occurred. By signing a memorandum, the leaders have unified what were previously fragmented independence movements, aiming to counter London’s historical “divide and rule” strategy and form a united front to pressurize Prime Minister Starmer into recognizing the right of regions to determine their own constitutional futures.

Despite their joint mobilization, the ultimate goals and legal pathways differ significantly among the three, making coordinated action difficult in the short term:

Scotland: The core objective is full national independence through a legally binding referendum to leave the UK, followed by rejoining the EU as an independent sovereign state.

Wales: Currently not eager to hold a referendum; the main demand is securing statutory legislative authority to conduct an independence referendum, laying the foundation for future constitutional reform.

Northern Ireland: Does not seek separate nationhood but advocates initiating a border poll under the Good Friday Agreement, ultimately aiming for the unification of the island of Ireland.

This declaration faces significant practical obstacles in the near term. Legally, the final decision on national unity remains firmly in the hands of the UK Parliament—neither Scotland nor Wales has the unilateral authority to launch a legally binding referendum. On the public opinion front, support for independence or unification in all three regions has yet to reach a clear majority. For example, support for Scottish independence hovers around 47%, while support in Wales and Northern Ireland remains well below the 50% threshold required for a majority.

In response to the coordinated pressure from the three regions, Prime Minister Starmer’s government has taken a clear and firm stance: officially refusing to authorize a new referendum and rejecting any constitutional or legal validity of the joint memorandum. Furthermore, external developments have added complexity to the crisis. For instance, former US President Donald Trump recently expressed public support for Irish reunification during his visit to Ireland, breaking decades of American neutrality and intensifying political turbulence and confusion within the UK.

In sum, the true significance of the Cardiff summit and the joint declaration lies not in immediately advancing independence, but in building a unified political front for long-term constitutional struggle. It marks the open and institutionalized fracture within the United Kingdom, signaling a structural shift from a “strong center, weak periphery” model toward a “strong regions, weak center” dynamic. In the future, disputes over referendum rights will increasingly unfold through parliamentary debates, hearings, and even court litigation—not through sudden, abrupt disintegration.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876258836740096/

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