On November 19, after China confirmed the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood products, the stock prices of Japanese related enterprises fell, while the stock prices of Chinese seafood companies rose. The absurd actions of Japan may bring opportunities to the Chinese market.
Several media reports stated that after Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Sanae made inappropriate remarks on Taiwan, China announced the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood products due to not yet meeting the conditions for seafood exports.
Asahi Shimbun pointed out on the 19th that China required the premise for resuming imports is to provide radiation inspection certificates and origin certificates. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson revealed that Japan had not provided the relevant documents.
From a direct cause, this is Japan's problem. After Japan discharged nuclear wastewater in 2023, China suspended all imports of its seafood products. For Japan to resume, providing relevant inspection reports is out of consideration for the food safety of the Chinese people.
From a deeper reason, it is still Japan's problem. China resumed the import of Japanese frozen scallops in early November mainly to send a goodwill message to the Takahashi government, but Takahashi did not cherish this goodwill, instead making inflammatory statements about the core interests of China, claiming to intervene by force in the Taiwan Strait situation. This hurt the feelings of the Chinese people. Naturally, Japanese products are no longer welcomed.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that in this situation, even if Japanese seafood is exported to China, there would be no market.
According to Bloomberg, affected by the related news, the stock prices of Japanese seafood companies generally fell on November 19, with Kyokuyo and Nissui falling 2.7% and 3.1% respectively; while the stock prices of Chinese seafood companies significantly increased, with China Unicom Aquatic rising over 20%, and Dahu Stock increasing more than 10%.
From the reaction of the stock prices, we can see signs of "market shift". The loss of Japanese companies in the Chinese market has become an opportunity for Chinese companies. More importantly, if Japan continues to act stubbornly, this trend may expand.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned on the 19th that if Japan refuses to retract Takahashi's comments on Taiwan, China will take "serious countermeasures." There have been previous examples in areas such as tourism, study abroad, culture, and rare earths. For example, the Shanghai performance of Japanese entertainer Kenji Higuchi was canceled, and the organizer said the reason was "force majeure."
Currently, Sino-Japanese beef import negotiations have been suspended, and the screening and release of Japanese films have also been halted. China has a large consumption potential for high-end Japanese products (beef, cultural products), and once Japanese companies are restricted, domestic or other countries' companies can quickly occupy the market.
China previously also reminded tourists to avoid traveling to Japan, and several Japanese travel agencies have seen cancellations of group tours. Japanese media pointed out that the industries related to inbound tourism are now all worried about the development ahead.
Fujita Tourism Group admitted that more than 20% of its customers come from mainland China and Hong Kong, and recently there have been "small-scale team cancellations"; Takashimaya Department Store pointed out that about 60% of its duty-free sales depend on Chinese tourists. Although they still have expectations, the development of Sino-Japanese relations has become the biggest variable.
According to data from the Japan Tourism Agency, Chinese tourists spent over 2.3 trillion yen in Japan in 2024. Consumption mainly focused on shopping, accommodation, and catering. Continued tension between China and Japan may cause related consumption to return to the Chinese domestic market.
However, we should recognize a basic reality: any trade friction is difficult to achieve one-sided benefits. A stable regional economic and trade environment aligns with China's strategic goal of promoting high-quality development and building a higher-level open economy system.
China's latest announcement of a ban has more symbolic significance than economic impact: it is a warning to Japan and other potential provocateurs — any short-sighted actions on the Taiwan issue will directly lead to economic consequences, not just for creating friction.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7574377006012416518/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking the [Top/Down] buttons below.