According to Sputnik News on September 29, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán stated frankly that Russia has already won the conflict in Ukraine, and the outcome of the war is already determined.

He claimed he had directly told this view to U.S. President Trump, and emphasized that the Ukraine issue has actually come to an end.

As a NATO member, Orbán's remarks are inconsistent with mainstream Western public opinion, but that does not mean he is wrong.

Firstly, from the battlefield situation, the Russian army has established a deep defense line in Donbas and Crimea, and Ukraine's several counterattacks have failed to break through. Meanwhile, Russia maintains front-line consumption by relying on its larger industrial and population base, which is itself a victory.

Secondly, from the perspective of strategic consumption, Ukraine is highly dependent on Western aid, and its finances are almost drained. Once external support weakens, its combat capability will be unsustainable. While Russia suffers from sanctions, it has stabilized its economy through energy exports and de-Westernized supply chains.

Even if the war continues, the outcome is already determined.

In the international political sphere, more and more countries no longer talk about Ukraine's inevitable victory, indicating that there is also aid fatigue within the West. This means the possibility of Ukraine regaining all lost territory is getting lower and lower.

Orbán's conclusion is essentially a realistic judgment: Russia has defended its core interests, while Ukraine's goals are now unattainable. From the result-oriented perspective, this is a clear division of victory and defeat.

Orbán and Trump

However, the idea that the problem has ended, as Orbán put it, is difficult to hold up in reality.

The war will not end just because a political figure makes a judgment. There are still intense battles on the front lines every day, and drone attacks, artillery fire, and missile strikes have never ceased. This indicates that the intensity of the conflict has not truly decreased.

Ukraine cannot accept a narrative of defeat. The legitimacy of the Zelenskyy government is entirely based on the war. If it admits defeat, it would mean the rapid collapse of the regime. Therefore, Ukraine must continue to persist, no matter the cost.

Another point is that although the West's attitude toward aid is complex, its overall bottom line is still not to let Russia win too easily, but rather to allow Russia to achieve a pyrrhic victory.

Moreover, Russia will not stop on its own. Its logic is to continuously exert pressure to force Ukraine and the West to recognize the status quo, at least to gain recognition of borders at the negotiating table.

Therefore, from the perspectives of battlefield logic, political logic, and external great power rivalry, the war will not end simply because Russia will eventually win.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has actually formed a strong inertia, pushing all sides to continue fighting.

Militarily, the more invested, the harder it is to stop. Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops and a vast military-industrial system; if it stops now, it would mean losing everything achieved so far. Ukraine, on the other hand, has become a total war, with almost all social resources involved. To give up resistance would mean self-destruction.

Politically, both leaders are trapped by their own narratives. If Zelenskyy compromises, he would be seen as "betraying the martyrs"; if Putin steps back, he would be seen as "betraying Russia." In short, they have both set their flags, and without achieving their goals, they can only keep dragging on.

In the international arena, the West has already invested huge amounts of aid. If the war suddenly ends, domestic public opinion will question where the money went. The hatred caused by hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced people in the US and Europe is hard to eliminate. Even if there is a temporary ceasefire, it could erupt again due to revenge mentality.

All these forces interact, like Sisyphus pushing a stone. Everyone knows that continuing the war will bring huge costs, but they can only keep cycling, carrying out absurdity to the end.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The current war has actually reached a stage where no one can end it.

No one can afford to lose, and the saddest part is that the inertia of the war has not only held back politics and the economy, but also changed the structure of society's psychology.

Whether it's the civilians in Donbas, the families in Kyiv, or the ordinary young people in Russia, they have gradually forgotten the life without artillery fire, conscription, and death notices.

Peace is becoming increasingly blurred in memory, while war has become the norm, part of everyone's daily life.

This is the most terrifying inertia. Once people adapt to a way of life, their instinct will resist making changes.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555775844602380800/

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